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UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was UWM’s largest quarterly originations since 2021: $41.7B production, total revenue $843.3M, adjusted EBITDA $211.1M; gain margin expanded to 130 bps, while GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01) due to MSR fair value headwinds .
  • Management raised Q4 guidance to $43–$50B production and 105–130 bps gain margin, citing operational capacity and AI-enabled demand capture; the 20th consecutive $0.10 dividend was declared (payable Jan 8, 2026) .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, UWM delivered a significant revenue beat and an EPS miss; EBITDA came in below S&P’s estimate on their definition, while company-reported adjusted EBITDA rose quarter-over-quarter*.
  • Key catalysts: improved gain margin, refi surge during brief rate dip, AI “Mia” driving leads/closings, and liability management (priced $1.0B 6.25% senior notes due 2031) to refinance November 2025 maturities .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Originations accelerated to $41.7B, with gain margin expanding to 130 bps; adjusted EBITDA rose to $211.1M, reflecting execution during a short rate rally window . Quote: “We closed $41.7 billion of production… our gain margin was 130 basis points… we delivered on everything we said we would” .
  • AI initiatives drove tangible outcomes: Mia made 400,000+ calls and contributed to 14,000+ closed loans; inbound handled ~70,000 calls, strengthening broker retention and refi capture .
  • Liquidity and capital actions: $1.0B upsized senior notes priced to refinance $800M 2025 notes; total available liquidity ~$3.0B at quarter end, supporting growth and servicer build-out .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS missed consensus; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01), pressured by a $(307.8)M MSR fair value change and smaller derivative gains vs Q2 .
  • Purchase originations declined sequentially to $25.2B (seasonality and rate context), though refi surged to $16.5B; management reiterated purchase stability, with upside mainly in refi when rates dip .
  • Equity declined to $1.59B from $1.75B in Q2 amid MSR valuation and capital structure changes; non-funding debt to equity rose to 2.45x as new notes drove temporary leverage higher .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$613.4 $758.7 $843.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(247.0) $314.5 $12.1
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.12) $0.11 $(0.01)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)N/A$0.16 $0.01
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$57.8 $195.7 $211.1
Gain Margin (%)0.94% 1.13% 1.30%
Loan Origination Volume ($USD Billions)$32.4 $39.7 $41.7
Purchase Originations ($USD Billions)$21.7 $27.3 $25.2
Refinance Originations ($USD Billions)$10.6 $12.4 $16.5
Product Mix ($USD Billions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Purchase – Conventional$15.9 $16.8 $14.7
Purchase – Government$7.8 $8.36 $8.41
Purchase – Jumbo/Other$2.50 $2.12 $2.12
Refi – Conventional$3.55 $5.08 $7.19
Refi – Government$8.27 $5.69 $7.30
Refi – Jumbo/Other$1.53 $1.67 $2.03
Total Originations$39.51 $39.74 $41.74
KPIsQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
MSR UPB ($USD Billions)$212.2 $211.2 $216.0
MSR WAC (%)4.56% 5.51% 5.57%
MSR Weighted Avg Age (months)25 19 19
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$636.3 $490.0 $870.7
Net Servicing Income ($USD Millions, quarterly)——$135.1
P&L Drivers ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Loan Production Income$304.8 $447.9 $542.1
Loan Servicing Income$190.5 $178.8 $169.0
Interest Income$118.1 $132.0 $132.1
Change in FV of MSRs$(388.6) $(111.4) $(307.8)
Gain on Other IR Derivatives—$208.9 $27.8

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Production ($USD Billions)Q4 2025—$43–$50 Raised vs prior quarter baseline
Gain-on-Sale Margin (bps)Q4 2025—105–130 Raised vs prior quarter baseline
Dividend ($/share)Next payable Jan 8, 2026$0.10 (Q3 declaration) $0.10 (Q4 declaration) Maintained

Note: Prior quarter (Q2) guidance for Q3 had been $33–$40B production and 100–125 bps margin; Q4 guidance is higher .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/Technology (Mia, LEO)Q2: Launched Mia and LEO; AI driving measurable results 400k+ outbound calls, ~70k inbound handled; 14k+ closed loans linked to Mia Accelerating adoption/impact
Servicing In-House & BiltQ1: Internal servicing plan and tooling investments On track for early 2026; Bilt rewards for mortgage payments; not a UWM P&L expense Implementation underway
Macro/Rates & VolumeQ1–Q2: Brief dips exploited; scale to handle surges Record single-day lock $4.8B; refi surged on brief window Highly responsive
Margin StrategyQ2: Margin lifted to 113 bps Guided 105–130 bps in Q4; margin control emphasized Upward bias
Capital/LiquidityQ1–Q2: Liquidity >$2.2–$2.4B Priced $1.0B 2031 notes; liquidity ~$3.0B at Q3; $2.2B post November payoff Strengthened
Hedging/MSRQ1–Q2: Significant MSR swings, derivative offsets No MSR hedge; de-emphasizes FV swings; focus on core ops/EBITDA Consistent philosophy

Management Commentary

  • “We locked $4.8 billion… in one day… submission and clear-to-close times actually got even faster, from 12 days–11 days” .
  • “Mia has made over 400,000 calls… over 14,000 have already closed… answer rate over 40%” .
  • “Our gain margin was 130 basis points… when rates drop, our volume goes up quickly… margin goes up quickly” .
  • CFO: “We recently completed a successful offering of $1 billion in unsecured notes… plan to pay off $800 million… total available liquidity of $3 billion… $2.2 billion after paying off the bonds” .
  • “Our work to bring servicing in-house is on track for the first quarter of 2026… all new loans that close in 2026 will stay here… by end of 2026, 100% of the servicing book will be internal” .
  • “It’s not funded by UWM. There’s no expense for it at all [Bilt rewards]. This is all upside” .
  • “We do not hedge our MSRs… MSR value stuff means nothing… watch… production, gain on sale, expenses… adjusted EBITDA of $200 million+” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Bilt partnership mechanics: Rewards funded externally; UWM leverages Bilt front-end servicing to enhance consumer experience and broker leads, with no P&L expense to UWM .
  • Margins: Guided 105–130 bps; management asserts margin control and volume/margin upside during rate dips; no material difference in purchase vs refi margins .
  • Purchase vs refi: Purchases stable and seasonal; refi is the upside lever and can quickly scale with lower rates .
  • October/November cadence: October strong; November a short business-month; Q4 guidance calibrated to still deliver best quarter in four years .
  • Operating leverage: Capacity to double volumes without adding significant fixed costs; AI initiatives expected to lower fixed cost base over time .
  • Servicing build-out costs: $40–$100M investment, closer to high end; savings fully visible in 2027 as double-dip costs subside .
  • Hedging/MSR view: No MSR hedging; focus on core operating metrics and adjusted EBITDA rather than MSR FV volatility .
  • Mia conversion: ~95% of the 14k loans were refi; some data rolled into early Q4 .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q3 2025)ConsensusActualNotes
Revenue ($USD Millions)669.4*871.1*Company-reported revenue was $843.3M, S&P recorded a higher “actual,” reflecting definitional differences . Values retrieved from S&P Global*
Primary EPS ($USD)0.0720*0.0100*Company GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01); S&P “Primary EPS” uses its own methodology. Values retrieved from S&P Global*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)224.9*158.1*Company adjusted EBITDA was $211.1M (non-GAAP). S&P’s EBITDA definition differs. Values retrieved from S&P Global*
  • Q2 2025 context: Revenue consensus 632.1M vs S&P actual 967.6M; EPS 0.0565 vs actual 0.16; EBITDA 151.0M vs 478.3M (S&P definition)*.
  • Interpretation: UWM delivered a material revenue beat in Q3 and an EPS miss relative to S&P consensus; EBITDA, on S&P’s definition, missed, while company-adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Volume and margin momentum: Gain margin expanded to 130 bps and originations hit $41.7B; Q4 guidance points to further volume/margin strength, positioning for upside in any rate dips .
  • AI is translating to production: Mia’s activity correlates with refi upticks and broker retention; expect continued contribution to lead-gen and conversion, especially in refi windows .
  • EPS volatility from MSR fair value should not distract from operating performance; watch production, gain-on-sale and adjusted EBITDA as core signals .
  • Capital position improved: $1.0B 2031 notes priced; near-term maturity addressed; liquidity robust in support of growth and servicing transition .
  • Product mix supports resilience: Stable purchase base with outsized refi sensitivity enables rapid scaling when rates dip; monitor government refi and conventional refi trends .
  • Servicing in-house is a 2026 execution story with 2027 P&L benefits; near-term double-dip costs are deliberate investments (expect better retention, data leverage, and lead funnel from Bilt) .
  • Trade setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 volume/margin realization and additional proof points on AI-driven refi capture; medium-term thesis hinges on servicing transition, tech moat, and margin discipline .