Executive Summary

Q3 2025 revenue was $13.6M, up 65% year over year; gross margin turned positive to 3.2% vs (11.7%) in Q2 2025, though it was down y/y given a $5M one-time license in Q3 2024 that inflated last year’s margin to 49.4% .
Backlog rose to $21.1M as of September 30, 2025 (vs $15.9M as of June 30, 2025; $17.8M as of July 25, 2025), reflecting traction in Rapid Production Services (RPS) and defense/space demand .
Management reaffirmed FY2025 guidance: revenue $50–$60M, gross margin >30% exiting Q4 2025, non-GAAP adjusted OpEx $40–$50M, CapEx $15–$20M, and EBITDA positive in 1H 2026; Q3 commentary emphasized operational efficiency and RPS momentum .
Liquidity strengthened via uplisting to Nasdaq and a $17.5M equity offering; cash and equivalents improved to $11.8M at quarter end .
S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our system mapping, so we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street expectations (see Estimates Context) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

RPS momentum and defense/space exposure: RPS backlog rose 22% q/q; 48% of bookings from Space & Defense; new customers >9% of Q3 bookings, supporting backlog growth to $21.1M .
Cost controls: Total OpEx fell to $11.1M (from $22.9M y/y); non-GAAP adjusted OpEx $9.0M vs $19.7M y/y; adjusted EBITDA improved to ($7.3M) vs ($9.7M) y/y .
Strategic wins: U.S. Navy CuNi program (~$6M), DEVCOM AvMC initiative (Aluminum CP1), Linde AMT domestic CuNi supply, and AS9100D certification for RPS bolster credibility and pipeline in aerospace/defense; CEO: “positioning the Company for sustained growth and profitability…moving toward positive EBITDA in the first half of 2026” .

What Went Wrong

Margin profile remains very low: GAAP gross margin 3.2% vs 49.4% y/y due to last year’s one-off license; although improved sequentially from (11.7%), hardware mix and legacy factors still weigh on profitability .
Continued losses: GAAP net loss ($11.8M); non-GAAP net loss ($9.2M), indicating ongoing scale/margin challenges despite OpEx reductions .
Risk factors/tone: Forward-looking risk language underscores liquidity, going concern, and capital-raising sensitivity, even after the offering and uplist .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$8.2	$13.6	$13.6
Gross Margin (%)	49.4%	(11.7%)	3.2%
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)	($23.1)	($13.8)	($11.8)
GAAP EPS (basic/diluted)	($37.54)	($0.98)	($0.69)
Non-GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)	($14.5)	($11.3)	($9.2)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	($9.7)	($8.9)	($7.3)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	N/A	$0.85 as of 6/30/25	$11.8 as of 9/30/25

Segment revenue (y/y):

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
3D Printer and parts	$1.049	$11.993
Recurring payment	$0.192	$0.000
Support services	$2.006	$1.351
Other (incl. license)	$5.000	$0.296
Total Revenue	$8.247	$13.640

Key KPIs:

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)	$15.9 as of 6/30/25; $17.8 as of 7/25/25	$21.1 as of 9/30/25
RPS backlog growth (%)	—	+22% q/q
New customers (% of bookings)	—	>9%
Space & Defense mix of bookings	54% Space / 33% Defense (Q2)	48% combined Space & Defense (Q3)

Notes: Q3 2024 included a $5M license in “Other,” explaining the unusually high Q3 2024 gross margin .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q2 2025)	Current Guidance (Q3 2025)	Change
Revenue	FY 2025	$50M–$60M	$50M–$60M	Maintained
Gross margin	Q4 2025 exit	>30% exiting 2025	>30% exiting 2025	Maintained
Non-GAAP adjusted OpEx	FY 2025	$40M–$50M	$40M–$50M	Maintained
CapEx	FY 2025	$15M–$20M	$15M–$20M	Maintained
EBITDA	Timing	Positive in 1H 2026	Positive in 1H 2026	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q1’25)	Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q2’25)	Current Period (Q3’25)	Trend
RPS traction	Not available in our document set	RPS bookings +79% q/q; strong demand from Space/Defense	RPS backlog +22% q/q; repeat orders; >9% new customers	Positive, scaling
Defense/Space programs	Not available	CRADA with NAVAIR labs; Vaya Space MSA; Momentus MSA; Ohio Ordnance initiative	U.S. Navy CuNi ($6M), DEVCOM AvMC initiative, Linde AMT domestic CuNi; 48% Space/Defense mix	Strengthening pipeline
Margin trajectory	Not available	GM (11.7%); guided improving to >30% exiting 2025	GM 3.2% (+seq); reaffirms >30% exiting Q4	Improving sequentially
Liquidity/capital	Not available	Low cash ($0.85M)	Uplisted to Nasdaq; $17.5M equity raise; cash $11.8M	Improved liquidity
Tech/Software	Not available	—	Dyndrite LPBF Pro integration for vector-level control/toolpath optimization	Product capability expanding
Macro/government	Not available	—	Mgmt: minimal impact expected from Oct. government shutdown; defense demand robust in munitions/manufacturing Q&A	Watch, but limited impact indicated

Management Commentary

CEO framing (press release): “Our third-quarter results reflect the progress we are making in strengthening our operational efficiency and positioning the Company for sustained growth and profitability…we are improving margins and moving toward positive EBITDA in the first half of 2026 while scaling our technology for long-term growth.”
Strategic positioning: Emphasis on RPS with aerospace/defense quality systems (AS9100D) and domestic supply chain resiliency (U.S. Navy CuNi, Linde AMT), plus DEVCOM AvMC initiative to advance high-throughput AM processes .
Financial discipline: Reaffirmed FY2025 outlook and margin exit target despite hardware mix headwinds and legacy cost absorption effects, citing operational efficiencies and anticipated RPS ramp .

Q&A Highlights

Government shutdown/DoD funding: Management indicated minimal expected impact, citing momentum and ongoing programs; bookings specifics were not disclosed but noted proximity to agreements with prime contractors .
RPS contribution: Discussion pointed to RPS as an increasing revenue mix element, with commentary suggesting 20–30% of total revenue as RPS scales .
Defense demand: Noted strength in munitions and broader manufacturing programs as DoD accelerates U.S.-based production .

Estimates Context

S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus retrieval was unavailable for VELO via our system mapping; as a result, we cannot determine beats/misses versus Street estimates this quarter. Values from S&P Global were unavailable due to missing CIQ mapping for the ticker in our system .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue stabilized sequentially at $13.6M with a clear shift toward higher-quality backlog and RPS-driven pipeline; backlog progression (to $21.1M) supports near-term visibility .
Margin trajectory is improving sequentially but remains the core swing factor; execution against the >30% Q4 exit margin is the key KPI for credibility on the 1H 2026 EBITDA-positive target .
RPS is becoming a real growth vector, with AS9100D certification and multiple DoD-linked partnerships providing differentiation and potentially better margin mix over time .
Liquidity risk has eased post-uplisting and equity raise; monitor cash burn versus OpEx discipline and the pace of gross margin improvement .
With consensus unavailable, positioning into prints should focus on backlog conversion, margin prints versus internal guide, and RPS mix as proxies for fundamental momentum .
Defense/Space exposure is a relative strength; monitor execution milestones on Navy CuNi qualification and DEVCOM AvMC initiatives as catalysts for orders and recurring revenue .
Watch for sustained sequential improvements in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA as the stock’s primary narrative drivers near-term .

Sources and prior periods:

Q3 2025 8-K press release, financials and slides: .
Q2 2025 press release/8-K excerpts (formerly trading as VLDX on OTCQX): revenue, margin, losses, backlog and guidance .
Q3 2025 call transcript highlights: Investing.com, Yahoo/GuruFocus, MarketScreener/SA transcript references .

Note on document availability: We reviewed the full Q3 2025 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 press release and Exhibit 99.2 slides). We did not locate Q1 2025 results in our document set; Q2 2025 results and guidance were used for sequential comparisons .

Velo3D, Inc. (VELO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary