Vermilion Energy - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Julie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vermilion Energy Q2 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press Star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press Star 2. Thank you. Mr. Dion Hatcher, you may begin your conference.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Oh, thank you, Julie. Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us. I'm Dion Hatcher, President and CEO of Vermilion Energy. With me today are Lars Glemser, Vice President and CFO, Darcy Kerwin, Vice President, International and HSE, Bryce Kremnica, Vice President, North America, Jason Tan, Vice President, Business Development, and Carl Preston, Vice President of Investor Relations.

We'll be referencing a PowerPoint presentation to discuss our Q2 2023 results. Presentation can be found on our website under Invest With Us and Events and Presentations. Please refer to our advisory and forward-looking statements at the end of the presentation. It describes forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms used today, and it outlines the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion.

Production during the second quarter averaged 83,152 BOEs per day, which was at the top end of our Q2 guidance range of 80,000-83,000. We revised our Q2 production guidance in mid-May to reflect the temporary shut-in of approximately 30,000 BOEs a day in West Central Alberta due to forest fires.

The combined impact of Q2 volumes from the wildfires and the Australia downtime was approximately 8,000 BOEs per day. Our team was quick to respond to the fire situation in Alberta and was able to safely restore all of the production within weeks of the initial shut-in, which minimized the impact of the fire. In addition, we achieved strong operational performance across many of our other assets.

We generated CAD 247 million of FFO and invested CAD 167 million of E&D capital, resulting in CAD 80 million of free cash flow, of which we returned CAD 40 million to shareholders via the base dividend and share buybacks, representing a return of capital payout of approximately 50%.

During the first half of 2023, we have declared CAD 33 million in dividends and repurchased CAD 54 million of our common shares, representing CAD 87 million returned to our shareholders. We continue to target shareholder returns of 25%-30% of free cash flow for 2023, with debt reduction remaining the priority until we achieve our next net debt target of CAD 1 billion. Net debt at the end of Q2 decreased slightly to CAD 1.3 billion, representing a trailing net debt to FFO ratio of 1 times.

Given the front-end weighting of our capital program, combined with higher forecast production and cash flows in the back half of the year, we anticipate generating more free cash flow in the second half, which should translate to accelerated debt reduction. Production from our North America operations averaged 54,064 BOEs per day in Q2, a decrease of 10% or 6,000 BOEs per day from the prior quarter, mainly due to the disposition of approximately 5,500 BOEs per day of higher cost assets in our Southeast Saskatchewan and approximately 4,000 BOEs per day of fire-related downtime in West Central Alberta. We're able to partially offset this impact with organic production growth from our Mica, Montney, Southeast Saskatchewan, and the US assets, which added approximately 3,400 BOEs per day combined in Q2.

All the production that was temporarily shut in as a result of the wildfires has been restored, thanks to the hard work of our employees and contractors. Although there was no major damage to our facilities or well sites, we will continue to monitor the forest fire and take any necessary action to ensure the safety of our people and assets. We again want to thank our operations staff for the safely restoring production during this difficult period.

In West Central Alberta, we completed one and brought on production five Mannville liquids-rich gas wells. By Mica, we drilled two, completed four, and brought on production one Montney liquids-rich gas well. In Saskatchewan, we drilled, completed, and brought on production one oil well. In the U.S., we drilled seven, completed 10, and brought on production five oil wells in Wyoming.

As part of our activity in the quarter, we participated in the drilling of 2 non-operated Parkman wells and 1 non-operated Niobrara well. We continue to evaluate these formations as they relate to future development prospects on our Powder River Basin acreage in Wyoming. Across North America, we are seeing strong overall performance from our capital program and ongoing operations, which has helped in mitigating the impact of fire-related downtime in Alberta.

Our recent BC Montney wells at Mica continue to perform very well, with minimum declines seen over the first 120 days of production. BC pad results validates our Tier One inventory in BC and presents an opportunity for future downspacing. Our 2024 program will be focused exclusively on our BC lands, with approximately 10 wells on or offsetting the 16-28 pad.

We recently received the final permit required for the construction of the 16,000 BOE a day battery on the BC lands and are planning to start site preparation later this year. The majority of this construction will occur in the first half of 2024 and will be funded through a financing agreement with a third-party midstream company. This agreement was part of the Mica acquisition. We are excited to execute the next expansion phase and look forward to providing future updates in the quarters ahead.

Production from our international operations averaged 29,087 BOEs per day, an increase of 30% from the prior quarter, mainly due to the acquisition of additional working interests in Corrib, which closed on March 31st of this year. This acquisition added approximately 7,000 BOEs per day of premium-priced European natural gas production.

Ireland's production more than doubled in Q2 to an average of 11,251 BOE a day due to the closing of this acquisition, as well as better than forecast operational run rates. In the Netherlands, we completed one conventional gas well from our Q1 drilling program. In Germany, we continued to advance our deep gas exploration and development plans as we prepare for our first well to be drilled in the fourth quarter of this year.

In Australia, we completed all remaining inspections and repair work within the primary systems of the platform at the end of Q2, and made preparations to restart the facility. As a result, we expect higher operational run rates with less on-time downtime in the future. Inspection and repair work completed on the platform was conducted in a safe and efficient manner without incident.

We would again like to thank our staff and contractors for their diligence in executing a safe and successful program. After completing all inspections and repair work within the primary systems on the platform, we proceeded to function test all systems as part of the facility restart in early July. During this step, we noted a leak supplying seawater to a secondary area of the deluge fire suppression system.

To ensure we have addressed any upsetting items, we elected to replace the seawater piping at this time, which will delay startup to the end of Q3. This is the longest period that the Wandoo platform has been offline since Vermilion has operated it. The scope of the repair work itself was mainly pipe valves and fittings and replacements. It was time-consuming process, given the logistics associated with working on an offshore platform.

In particular, there are a limited number of beds to accommodate workers, and the work itself required the assembly and the disassembly of complex scaffolding throughout the platform. All the major work is now behind us. Systems on the platform are function tested and ready for startup once the seawater piping is replaced.

With these delays impact short-term production and cash flow, it is the right long-term decision as it enhances the safety and the integrity of our asset while improving future operational run rates.

The Wandoo asset has been in our portfolio since 2005 and has generated a significant amount of free cash flow over this timeframe. In 2022, Wandoo crude sold at a US $14 premium to Brent, which drives very strong netbacks.Under current strip pricing, we are forecasting over CAD 100 million of free cash flow from Australia in 2024. I will now pass it over to Lars to discuss our guidance and financial outlooks.

Lars Glemser (VP and CFO)

Thank you, Dion. As a result of the increased scope of repair work on the Wandoo platform in Australia, as well as the planned turnaround at the Corrib facility in Ireland, we expect Q3 volumes to be consistent with Q2 guidance of 80,000-83,000 BOE a day. As we complete the Australia integrity work and Corrib turnaround, we will be positioned to deliver Q4 production in the range of 86,000-89,000 BOE a day.

As a result of strong operational execution and performance across our portfolio, we are maintaining our 2023 annual production guidance of 82,000-86,000 BOE a day, as we have been able to offset much of the impact from the Alberta wildfires and extended Australia downtime. The rest of our annual financial guidance remains unchanged from our last revision.

Our disciplined approach towards debt reduction, combined with our asset-light drilling initiatives over the past three years, has made Vermilion a more resilient business today. By the end of this year, we will have nearly cut our debt in half, while also funding over CAD 1 billion of strategic acquisitions and have significantly increased our average annual FFO from pre-COVID levels. While strong commodity prices have contributed to this improvement, we believe the company is much better positioned.

Our top decile netbacks, low base decline, diversified commodity exposure, and capital-efficient asset base, combined with our modest base dividend payout, translates to a very resilient business that can be managed through low commodity cycles and is well-positioned for increased return of capital to shareholders as debt is reduced.

As we look out to 2024, we are currently forecasting a significant increase in FFO to over $1.4 billion, assuming a flat production profile. With this, we expect to achieve our next net debt target of $1 billion during the first half of 2024. Consistent with our previous messaging, we plan to increase shareholder returns upon achieving this debt target, and we'll communicate the method and targeted payout range at that time.

We anticipate that share buybacks will remain the primary mechanism for returning incremental capital beyond the base dividend, and as such, we renewed our normal course issuer bid in early July and continue to buy back shares. Since July of last year, we have bought back 5.7 million shares. Lastly, I wanted to provide a brief update on our hedge position, in particular, our European gas hedges.

European gas has been trading at elevated levels for the past few years, and we believe there has been a structural positive shift in European gas fundamentals, as you can see in the forward price on this chart. European gas prices are currently trading approximately seven times higher than AECO gas prices, and the forward curve is holding in at around CAD 20 per MMBtu.

This is a very attractive price as it generates high project returns and significant free cash flow from our European gas assets. As such, we have been actively hedging our forward European gas production at or above these levels.

For the upcoming periods on European gas in Canadian dollar terms, we have 51% hedged for second half of 2023 at an average price of CAD 30 per MMBtu, 30% hedged for the first half of 2024 at an average floor of CAD 47 per MMBtu, and 16% hedged for second half 2024 at an average floor of CAD 25 per MMBtu.

We have also been starting to layer in some oil hedges and intend to increase our corporate hedge position from current levels, with a view to lock in a reasonable amount of cash flow to provide greater certainty in achieving our debt targets and in support of executing our operational and return on capital plans. With that, I would like to pass it back to Dion for his closing remarks.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Thanks, Lars. To further expand on Lars's comments on free cash flow generating capacity, I'd like to highlight the following chart, which shows our free cash flow allocation over the past few years. The blue bar shows the total amount of free cash flow generated, while the stacked bar shows how this free cash flow was allocated in each of the years.

As you can see, the majority of our free cash flow, a total of $1.6 billion between 2021 and 2023, was allocated to debt reduction and acquisitions. This aligned with our strategy of ensuring a strong balance sheet and robust asset base. Going in 2024, most of that heavy lifting on debt reduction will be behind us, which means we have more free cash flow to allocate to shareholder returns in the years ahead.

As we look into 2024, we are positioned to generate significantly higher free cash flow. As I mentioned earlier, we intend to increase the amount of return to our shareholders once we achieve our $1 billion debt target, expected during the first half of 2024. Well, that concludes my prepared remarks. With that, we would like to open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the two. One moment please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Amir Arif from ATB Capital. Please go ahead.

Amir Arif (Managing Director E&P Research)

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just a few quick questions. First of all, just on the Montney side, what... I think you're planning 10 wells next year. Were you planning on drilling those currently with the construction in the first half? Should we expect Montney production to start being meaningful in the second half in terms of growth, or is it, will the drilling be happening once you've got better clarity on startup of the facility?

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Maybe I can take that high-level question here. This is Dion. Thanks for the question. As noted on the call, the construction of the battery itself will, some of that site prep work will initiate second half this year, but the bulk of it will be in the first half of 2024. From a planning point of view, you know, we would initiate that drilling, but, you know, realistically, I think the timeline for that production coming on would be closer to mid-year. That's, that's our assumptions, our plans right now.

Amir Arif (Managing Director E&P Research)

Okay. Dion, would you drill all 10 wells in the 1st half, or you, the 10 is spread throughout the year for next year?

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Well, there's basically two, mainly two pads, and so that this would be back-to-back drilling. As you can imagine, there's some, you know, cost synergies and efficiencies. Yes, we would look to drill those pads back-to-back and line it up for mid-year.

Amir Arif (Managing Director E&P Research)

Got it. Appreciate that. Then just a quick question on the German, in Germany. I know you're, you continue to drill that deep exploration gas well over there. Can you just give us an update on when you expect to hit TD and when do you expect to have some results on that?

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Sure. I'm gonna pass it over to Darcy Kerwin, our Vice President of International. Darcy, you want to take that one?

Darcy Kerwin (VP, International and HSE)

Yes. Thanks, Amir. You know, I, I guess you know we've been excited about the deep gas exploration potential in, in Germany. We have successfully drilled deep gas wells there before. We drilled Burgmoor Z5 in 2019. That, that well is still producing nicely for us. So we kind of, after some pause during the COVID downturn, we've put renewed focus on that exploration program, both on the geoscience side and on the permitting side. We have a number of interesting prospects to look at there in, in Germany, and we'll kick off kind of the first of that of that set of prospects starting here in Q4 2023 with the, with the first exploration well that we plan to drill.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

I guess from a TD point of view, Darcy, you know, we're really looking at early next year with the time we take to spud the well and, and get those, well results.

Darcy Kerwin (VP, International and HSE)

Yeah, we'll spud the well in Q4, and then that well will drill through the end of the year and TD, early in 2024, late 2024.

Amir Arif (Managing Director E&P Research)

Okay. Appreciate that. Just final question on the windfall taxes. The TTF gas price was down sequentially, quarter-over-quarter, yet windfall taxes were up. Can you just help me understand why, why it wouldn't move with the TTF prices? Is there just a lag in terms of the payments?

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Yeah, let me pass over to Lars to address that question.

Lars Glemser (VP and CFO)

Yeah. Thanks, Amir. The big reason for the increase in windfall taxes from Q1 to Q2 of this year is the fact that we closed the Corrib acquisition on March 31st of this year, and so in Q2, we started to recognize the production and FFO or free cash flow impact of the incremental 36.5%. That, that would explain the bulk of the increase Q1 to Q2.

Amir Arif (Managing Director E&P Research)

I appreciate that. Thanks.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Great.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

Dion Hatcher (President and CEO)

With that, thank you again for participating in our Q2 conference call.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.