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VG

Venture Global, Inc. (VG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered strong operational and financial execution: revenue $2.894B (+105% YoY), operating income $1.080B (+75% YoY), and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1.346B (+94% YoY), underpinned by record LNG exports of 234 TBtu and 63 commissioning cargoes .
  • Against Wall Street, revenue modestly missed ($2.894B vs $2.969B consensus) and EPS missed ($$0.15 vs $0.276), driven primarily by non-cash, unfavorable interest rate swap fair value changes and revenue timing (DES cargo recognition in Q2) rather than core operations; highlight the strong EBITDA growth and volume ramp despite the EPS miss .
  • Guidance lowered: FY 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA revised to $6.4B–$6.8B from $6.8B–$7.4B, reflecting compressed international vs domestic gas price spreads; sensitivity to a $1/MMBtu liquefaction fee change reduced to $460–$480MM from $625–$675MM as forward sales increased .
  • Catalysts: Calcasieu Pass achieved COD on April 15, 2025; Plaquemines trains continue to demonstrate ~140% of nameplate capacity; CP2 secured DOE non‑FTA approval, a $3B bank facility, and a positive FERC Final Supplemental EIS, positioning for FID mid‑year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record LNG throughput and margin expansion: 234 TBtu exported (+93% vs Q4 2024) and EBITDA up 94% YoY; “Our projects exported a total of 234 TBtu of LNG, a new record high for the company… attributable to the project execution discipline and operational excellence” — CEO Mike Sabel .
  • Calcasieu Pass COD achieved April 15; facility delivering on schedule to foundational customers post‑COD and realized weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $8.80/MMBtu in Q1 .
  • Plaquemines ramp and performance: 18 trains activated demonstrated ~140% of nameplate capacity; 29 commissioning cargoes at $7.26/MMBtu; temporary 400MW power mitigated power‑island delays to maintain commissioning pace .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss vs consensus and YoY decline in net income attributable to common shareholders to $396MM (‑39% YoY) driven by non‑cash, unfavorable swaps; “decrease… largely driven by… unfavorable changes in the fair value of our interest rate swaps” — CFO Jack Thayer .
  • Guidance cut: FY 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA reduced to $6.4B–$6.8B due to compressed spreads and lower assumed fixed liquefaction fee ($6–$7/MMBtu vs $7–$8 prior) .
  • Cost headwinds: higher O&M (+$143MM) and depreciation (+$146MM) tied to Plaquemines ramp, tanker operations, and Calcasieu rectification ahead of COD .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.414 $1.524 $2.894
Operating Income ($USD Billions)$0.617 $0.594 $1.080
Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders ($USD Billions)$0.648 $0.871 $0.396
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.25 $0.33 $0.15
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.693 $0.688 $1.346

Margins (S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EBITDA Margin %48.59%*45.08%*44.78%*
EBIT Margin %43.64%*38.98%*37.32%*
Net Income Margin %48.30%*61.09%*17.35%*

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs – Volumes and Fees:

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cargos (count)40 33 63
TBtu Exported144.5 121.0 233.6
LNG Volumes Sold (TBtu)140.9 128.0 228.3

Facility-Level (Q1 2025):

FacilityCargos (Q1)Weighted Avg Fixed Liquefaction Fee ($/MMBtu)
Calcasieu Pass34 $8.80
Plaquemines LNG29 $7.26

Additional fee context: Company-wide weighted average fixed facility fee of $8.55/MMBtu in Q1 2025 vs $7.40/MMBtu in Q1 2024; Calcasieu forward-sold Q2–Q4 fees at $2.21/MMBtu; Plaquemines contracted 89 remaining cargoes at $7.46/MMBtu .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP)FY 2025$6.8B – $7.4B $6.4B – $6.8B Lowered
Fixed Liquefaction Fee AssumptionFY 2025$7 – $8/MMBtu $6 – $7/MMBtu Lowered
EBITDA Sensitivity per $1/MMBtu Fee ChangeFY 2025$625MM – $675MM $460MM – $480MM Reduced sensitivity
Calcasieu Cargo ExportsFY 2025140 – 148 145 – 150 Raised
Plaquemines Cargo ExportsFY 2025219 – 239 222 – 239 Raised (lower bound)
Non‑controlling Interest Share of Adj. EBITDAFY 2025$215MM – $235MM $215MM – $235MM Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Liquefaction train performancePlaquemines trains regularly ~140% of nameplate; strong greenfield execution 18 Plaquemines trains at ~140%; Calcasieu COD achieved Strengthening operational confidence
Power island & temporary power~400MW temporary power to mitigate delays Ramp constrained by power; complete Phase 1 power island in Q3 to accelerate Phase 2 Execution progressing; ramp accelerates H2
Contracting paceBlend of 3–20yr tenors; 78 cargoes at $7.94/MMBtu Plaquemines 198 of 326 cargoes (Q2–Q4) contracted; +45 since prior report Increasing forward sales; reduced price sensitivity
Regulatory approvalsExpect DOE non‑FTA; FERC supplemental EIS supportive DOE non‑FTA granted; FERC FSEIS supportive; FID targeted mid‑year Approvals secured; de-risked path
Tariffs/macroLimitedU.S. tariffs exposure ~1% of CP2 budget; monitoring retaliatory tariffs Managed risk; monitoring
SafetyTRIR: Calcasieu 0.10; Plaquemines 0.20 TRIR: Calcasieu 0.10; Plaquemines 0.21 Sustained best‑in‑class
Gas supply & NRUN/ACP2 gas laterals (CPX, Blackfin, Matterhorn); large NRU systems for Permian gas Strengthened supply positioning

Note: No public Q3 2024 earnings materials were found; trend analysis references Q4 2024 and current quarter .

Management Commentary

  • “Venture Global had a strong first quarter… nearly doubling our quarterly revenue year-over-year. Our first facility, Calcasieu Pass, achieved its [COD]… Eighteen of the liquefaction trains at our second facility, Plaquemines, have demonstrated production levels of approximately 140% of nameplate capacity… [CP2]… received [DOE] approval… secured a $3.0 billion bank loan… [and] positive [FERC] FSEIS” — CEO Mike Sabel .
  • “We are revising our guidance… consolidated adjusted EBITDA… between $6.4 billion and $6.8 billion. This reflects a $6–$7 per MMBtu fixed liquefaction fee range for available cargoes… consistent with recently executed transactions” — CEO Mike Sabel .
  • “Our net income… was $396 million… a decrease… largely driven by noncash factors such as unfavorable changes in the fair value of our interest rate swaps” — CFO Jack Thayer .
  • “On average, if fixed liquefaction fees… increase or decrease by $1 per MMBtu, we expect our consolidated adjusted EBITDA… to adjust… by $460–$480 million, down from… $625–$675 million” — CFO Jack Thayer .

Q&A Highlights

  • Forward sales and contracting cadence: added ~45 cargoes since prior report; ~60% of Q2–Q4 2025 production contracted, reducing price sensitivity .
  • Long‑term SPAs: appetite growing; expect multiple new 20‑year contracts, including expanded CP2 offtake (e.g., NFE SPA increased to 1.5 MTPA) .
  • Plaquemines ramp cadence: 18 trains at Q1 end; complete Phase 1 (24 trains) by end of May; ramp accelerates in Q3 as Phase 1 power island enters combined cycle, enabling Phase 2 trains .
  • Tariff exposure: U.S. tariff impact estimated ~1% of CP2 budget; retaliatory tariffs being monitored; overall exposure manageable .
  • Gas supply robustness: CP2 laterals (CPX) and connections (Blackfin/Matterhorn) secure feedgas; large NRU systems mitigate Permian nitrogen content challenges .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs Actual (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD)$2,969,400,490*$2,894,000,000
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.27599*$0.15
EPS Estimates (#)9*—
Revenue Estimates (#)5*—

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • Revenue modest miss likely influenced by DES cargo timing (two Plaquemines DES cargos exported in Q1 recognized in Q2) .
  • EPS miss driven by non‑cash swap fair value losses; operating performance (revenue, operating income, EBITDA) showed strong YoY improvement .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong quarter operationally: record volumes, EBITDA up 94% YoY, COD at Calcasieu, and Plaquemines trains performing ~140% of nameplate — underscores manufacturing model and execution .
  • Guidance reset reflects market spreads; forward sales reduced EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu fee, supporting more predictable cash generation despite macro volatility .
  • Near‑term stock narrative: mixed — headline EPS miss and guidance cut vs powerful operational ramp and regulatory wins; watch contracting updates and Plaquemines power island milestones as catalysts .
  • Medium‑term thesis: de‑risked pathway to CP2 FID, substantial brownfield expansions prioritized ahead of CP3, and a balanced contract tenor strategy could compound EBITDA as trains ramp .
  • Fee dynamics: overall Q1 fees improved vs prior year; facility‑level dispersion (Calcasieu higher, Plaquemines lower) reflects commissioning mix and strategy; continued forward contracting should smooth fee realization .
  • Cost and O&M: expect normalization post Calcasieu rectification; monitor depreciation/O&M trajectory as Plaquemines ramps and the power island transitions to combined cycle .
  • Watch regulatory and tariff landscape: approvals secured for CP2; tariff exposure manageable; ongoing legal proceedings noted in risk factors — monitor for impacts .