Venture Global, Inc. (VG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 revenue was $1.524B, diluted EPS $0.33, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $0.688B; year-over-year revenue declined 7% and adjusted EBITDA declined 15%, but EPS turned positive from a loss in Q4 2023 .
• Management guided FY 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA to $6.8–$7.4B and expects 140–148 cargos from Calcasieu and 219–239 cargos from Plaquemines; non‑controlling interest share of 2025 EBITDA projected at $215–$235M .
• Operational milestones: Plaquemines achieved first LNG on Dec 13 and first cargo on Dec 26; Calcasieu COD targeted for April 15, 2025; trains at Plaquemines have consistently demonstrated ~140% pro‑rata production vs nameplate on activated trains .
• Strategic narrative: 39.25 of 50 MTPA across Calcasieu, Plaquemines, and CP2 are contracted (~20‑year average tenor), with management emphasizing fixed liquefaction fee contracting and conservative EBITDA sensitivity to fee moves (+/‑$625–$675M per $1/MMBtu) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Plaquemines ramped rapidly: first LNG on Dec 13 and first cargo Dec 26; 16 trains produced LNG during construction, with pro‑rata train performance at ~140% of nameplate capacity driven by design improvements and lessons from Calcasieu .
• Calcasieu Q4 fixed liquefaction fees averaged $8.79/MMBtu and $7.28/MMBtu for full-year 2024, reflecting strong contracting despite commissioning dynamics; COD notice issued for April 15, 2025 .
• Balance sheet scale and returns: “over $43B of assets” and ROE of 41.3% for 2024; management reiterated a long‑term, low‑cost liquefaction strategy and broad contracted base (39.25/50 MTPA) .

What Went Wrong

• Q4 2024 revenue declined 7% YoY and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell 15% YoY, with LNG cargos down to 33 from 40; management cited lower LNG sales volumes and higher Calcasieu remediation/commissioning costs .
• FY 2024 net income declined 45% YoY (to $1.475B) on significant declines in international LNG prices, increased Calcasieu remediation/commissioning, and CP2 development costs .
• Calcasieu has yet to sustain aggregate production above 10 MTPA due to ongoing rectification and power island issues, requiring continued O&M and commissioning spend before COD .

Financial Results

Segment/Project KPIs (Q4 2024):

Balance Sheet and Operating Metrics (FY 2024):

Notes and Drivers:

• Q4 net income increased $921M YoY (to $871M) primarily due to favorable fair value changes in interest rate swaps, partially offset by higher taxes, lower LNG sales volumes, and higher Calcasieu remediation/commissioning costs .
• FY 2024 declines were driven by lower international LNG prices, Calcasieu remediation/commissioning, and CP2 development costs; partially offset by reduced third‑party ownership interests, favorable interest rate swap changes, and lower tax expense .
• O&M costs are generally $0.50–$0.70/MMBtu depending on facility, informing contribution margin on fixed liquefaction fee contracts .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We are excited to share our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results… we believe [2025] will be an exceptional year for the company.”
• “Every liquefaction train we have activated thus far [at Plaquemines] has consistently demonstrated pro rata production levels equivalent to approximately 140% of the nameplate capacity…”
• “We anticipate capturing a fully weighted average liquefaction fee of $3.85 per MMBtu across all forward‑sold Calcasieu Pass production [2025].”
• “100% of the nameplate production capacity of Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines is contracted… 39.25 of 50 MTPA… contracted at an average tenor of slightly under 20 years, representing over $100 billion of illustrative total contracted revenue.”
• “Our view is that the permitting environment… is likely the best in decades… puts us in a position to displace growth plans for global competitors.”

Q&A Highlights

• Guide composition and margin math: CFO walked from net spreads to fixed liquefaction fees and contribution margins, noting O&M $0.50–$0.70/MMBtu and fee sensitivity of +/-$625–$675M per $1/MMBtu in 2025 EBITDA .
• Plaquemines ramp and upside: Management emphasized unprecedented ramp and strong train performance; maintained a conservative approach to EBITDA guidance given spread sensitivity .
• Contracting tenor strategy: Blended 3–20 year tenors for CP2 and Plaquemines expansion; aim to capture more upside with mixed terms while retaining long‑term anchors .
• Regulatory outlook: DOE non‑FTA approvals expected near term; FERC SEIS affirmed no significant emissions impacts for CP2; permitting tailwinds support expansion and CP2 timing .
• Macro risk (Russia‑Europe flows): Company believes any pricing impact would be temporary; long‑term competitive IRRs even at lower net spreads; ability to modulate growth as needed .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus estimates (EPS, revenue) via S&P Global were unavailable due to daily request limits at the time of this analysis; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for Q4 2024. Values retrieved from S&P Global would normally be used here, but were unavailable at query time.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q4 2024 pivoted to positive EPS and strong net income driven by interest rate swap gains despite YoY declines in revenue/EBITDA and fewer cargos; operational ramp remains intact .
• 2025 guide is ambitious ($6.8–$7.4B EBITDA) anchored by fixed liquefaction fee contracting and significant cargo volumes from both facilities; fee sensitivity provides a transparent earnings framework .
• Plaquemines is the near‑term growth engine (rapid train activation, strong pro‑rata performance, contracted strips at $7.94/MMBtu), while Calcasieu COD on April 15, 2025 should reduce commissioning variability .
• Strategic contracting depth (39.25/50 MTPA) and modular execution de‑risk multi‑year cash flows; regulatory tailwinds improve FID/expansion visibility for CP2 and Plaquemines Phase 3 .
• Near‑term catalysts: Calcasieu COD, Plaquemines train additions and cargo cadence, CP2 permitting milestones/FID progress; monitor TTF/JKM vs Henry Hub spreads for fee realizations .
• Risk factors: spread compression, commissioning/rectification cost overruns, power island delays; management is mitigating via temporary power, phased commissioning, and forward contracting .
• Actionable: focus on realized fixed fees and cargo volumes vs guidance each quarter; spread sensitivity suggests trading the name around forward curve moves and confirmed contracting wins .