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VICI PROPERTIES INC. (VICI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a broad beat: revenue $1.00B (+4.6% YoY), net income $865.1M, diluted EPS $0.82, AFFO $630.2M and AFFO/share $0.60; management raised FY2025 AFFO guidance to $2.50–$2.52B ($2.35–$2.37/share) .
  • Versus Street: revenue modestly beat (+$7.5M), EPS beat materially (+$0.14), and FFO/share beat; drivers cited were contractual rent escalators and investment flow-through efficiency . Street Q2 2025 consensus: revenue $993.8M*, EPS $0.690*, FFO/share $0.654* (actuals: $1,001.3M, $0.82, $0.82) [GetEstimates].
  • Liquidity/credit optionality improved: post-quarter, VICI settled ~9.7M forward shares for ~$296M and repaid $175M revolver; total liquidity ~$3.0B at quarter-end with IG ratings across agencies .
  • Strategic catalysts: new $510M North Fork delayed-draw facility (Red Rock) and $450M total One Beverly Hills mezzanine loan (Cain/Eldridge) expand experiential credit relationships .
  • Narrative movers: guidance raise and beats; call reinforced dividend/total-return framing, Las Vegas normalization but strong group bookings/tenant guarantees, and embedded growth (Venetian rent escalators). These are likely stock reaction catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Contractual escalators and investment activity lifted earnings; CEO: “we increased our quarterly revenue by 4.6% and our quarterly AFFO per share by nearly 5%…strength of our internal growth from contractual rent escalations coupled with investment activity” .
  • High flow-through and disciplined G&A: CFO highlighted “margins…in the high 90% range when eliminating non-cash items” and G&A $14.6M (~1.5% of revenue) .
  • Guidance raised: AFFO to $2,500–$2,520M ($2.35–$2.37/share), reflecting confidence in 2025 earnings trajectory .

What Went Wrong

  • CECL volatility impacts GAAP optics: Q2 included a non-cash CECL allowance benefit (+$142.0M; +$0.13/share), complicating YoY comparability and masking underlying trends .
  • Transaction/pursuit costs were elevated ($7.4M), with CFO noting write-offs of prior-quarter pursuit costs that did not proceed .
  • Las Vegas moderation headlines persisted; management framed it as temporary normalization, but investors may question near-term demand softness despite guarantees .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Street Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($MM)$976.1 $984.2 $1,001.3 $993.8* [GetEstimates]
Net Income ($MM)$614.6 $543.6 $865.1 —
Diluted EPS ($)$0.58 $0.51 $0.82 $0.690* [GetEstimates]
FFO/share (Diluted, $)$0.58 $0.51 $0.82 $0.654* [GetEstimates]
AFFO ($MM)$601.3 $616.0 $630.2 —
AFFO/share (Diluted, $)$0.57 $0.58 $0.60 —

Note: Values with an asterisk are Street consensus from S&P Global.

Highlights:

  • Revenue beat: +$7.5M vs consensus; EPS beat: +$0.13–$0.14; FFO/share beat: +$0.17 (bold beats) [GetEstimates] .
  • CECL non-cash adjustment increased GAAP net income (+$142.0M; +$0.13/share) .

Revenue components (composition)

Component ($MM)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Income from sales-type leases$524.7 $528.6 $530.3
Income from lease financing receivables, loans & securities$420.7 $426.5 $440.3
Other income$19.5 $19.5 $19.5
Golf revenues$11.2 $9.6 $11.2
Total Revenues$976.1 $984.2 $1,001.3

KPIs and credit metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$785.8 $802.1 $822.2
LQA Net Leverage (x)5.3x 5.3x 5.2x
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)$524.6 $334.3 $233.0
Total Debt ($MM)$17,098.8 $17,195.9 $17,273.5

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AFFO ($MM)FY2025$2,470–$2,500 $2,500–$2,520 Raised
AFFO/share ($)FY2025$2.33–$2.36 $2.35–$2.37 Raised
Est. Weighted Avg Share Count (MM)FY20251,058.6 1,062.4 Higher (forward shares)

Management reiterated no GAAP net income guidance due to unpredictable CECL swings .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Dividend/Total Return framingEmphasized dividend growth (Q3 increase) and AFFO growth Reinforced balance sheet readiness/refi; guidance raised CEO: “Welcome back to a total return world”; dividend as core to total return Reinforced
Las Vegas normalization vs guaranteesVenetian investment and embedded growth pipeline Venetian rent escalator/investment; Red Rock North Fork announced Temporary moderation; strong group bookings; 100% cash rent collection since inception; parent guarantees Moderation but insulated
External growth via creditGreat Wolf mezz loan; Homefield call/ROFR arrangements $300M One Beverly Hills mezz loan; $510M North Fork facility Increased One Beverly Hills to $450M; first Red Rock partnership Expanding
Capital markets readinessIG notes issuance, refi maturities; IG ratings Priced $1.3B notes ahead of volatility; new $2.5B revolver Settled forwards for $296M; repaid $175M revolver; liquidity ~$3.0B Strong
iGaming/regulatory lensPortfolio/lease terms overview Selectivity in underwriting across iGaming and supply trends Monitor iGaming; selective/regional discipline Consistent discipline

Management Commentary

  • CEO on total return: “We see our total return building blocks as…dividend return, capitalization of same-store earnings growth, and…new-store growth” .
  • CFO on margins/G&A: “AFFO per share was $0.60…our margins continue to run strong in the high 90% range…G&A…only 1.5%” .
  • COO on Las Vegas: “Temporary moderation…higher-end properties still running at over 90% occupancy…our rental income remains well-insulated…long-term, triple-net…corporate guarantees…100% rent collection in cash on time since inception” .
  • Strategy: expanding relationships with Red Rock and Cain/Eldridge; optionality on Caesars Forum Convention Center call right in Sep 2025 .

Q&A Highlights

  • One Beverly Hills mezz loan increase ($150M incremental to $450M total): sponsors working on broader construction financing; optional future fee-simple opportunities from strategic alliance .
  • Red Rock partnership/North Fork: initial ~$80M funded with draws later in 2025; long-term opportunity set (locals market land bank) acknowledged but no near-term sale-leasebacks .
  • iGaming stance: monitoring; underwriting considers digital’s impact across jurisdictions; emphasis on selective regional exposure .
  • Las Vegas demand: viewed as a “small blip” with strong forward group bookings; capital investment on the Strip continues .
  • Pursuit costs/transaction expenses: ~$7M due to write-offs of deals that didn’t progress .
  • Caesars Forum call option: attractive adjacency/land bank; optionality open from Sep 2025 for multiple years .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 reported vs Street consensus:
    • Revenue: $1,001.3M vs $993.8M* (beat) [GetEstimates].
    • EPS (Primary/Diluted): $0.82 vs $0.690* (beat) [GetEstimates].
    • FFO/share (REIT): $0.82 vs $0.654* (beat) [GetEstimates].
  • Guidance implies FY2025 AFFO/share midpoint $2.36, above prior midpoint $2.345; Street may lift AFFO, FFO/share and target price assumptions following the raise .

Note: Asterisk-marked values are consensus estimates retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad beat and guidance raise support near-term positive estimate revisions; focus on AFFO/share trajectory and sustained high EBITDA margins .
  • Embedded rent escalators and Venetian incremental rent continue to drive internal growth; watch optional additional $300M Venetian draw before Nov 2026 .
  • Liquidity/IG balance sheet and revolver capacity (~$2.2–$2.4B), plus forward equity proceeds, provide ample funding for pipeline without stressing leverage (LQA 5.2x) .
  • Monitor CECL allowance volatility (non-cash) for GAAP optics; underlying AFFO trends are cleaner for valuation .
  • Strategic credit relationships (Red Rock, Cain/Eldridge) broaden experiential optionality; potential future fee-simple acquisitions as projects stabilize .
  • Las Vegas normalization appears transient; parent guarantees and group bookings mitigate downside; watch Q3/Q4 group performance and sports/event tailwinds .
  • Potential corporate actions: Caesars Forum call right opening Sep 2025; continued Partner Property Growth Fund deals could add accretive rent .
Citations:
- SEC 8-K Q2 2025 and Exhibits: **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:6]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:7]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:8]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:9]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:10]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:11]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:12]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:14]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:15]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:16]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:17]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:18]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_vici2q25financialsupplem.htm:20]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_viciq22025earningsrelease.htm:3]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000106_viciq22025earningsrelease.htm:4]**
- Q2 2025 earnings press release: **[1705696_43ec91e6633447508474395349be7132_0]** **[1705696_43ec91e6633447508474395349be7132_1]** **[1705696_43ec91e6633447508474395349be7132_2]** **[1705696_43ec91e6633447508474395349be7132_3]** **[1705696_43ec91e6633447508474395349be7132_4]**
- Q2 2025 earnings call transcript: **[0001705696_2228811_1]** **[0001705696_2228811_3]** **[0001705696_2228811_5]** **[0001705696_2228811_6]** **[0001705696_2228811_7]** **[0001705696_2228811_11]** **[0001705696_2228811_12]** **[0001705696_2228811_14]** **[0001705696_2228811_15]**
- Prior quarter SEC 8-Ks: Q1 2025 **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_vici1q25financialsupplem.htm:6]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_vici1q25financialsupplem.htm:7]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_vici1q25financialsupplem.htm:8]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_vici1q25financialsupplem.htm:13]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_vici1q25financialsupplem.htm:14]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_viciq12025earningsrelease.htm:2]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_viciq12025earningsrelease.htm:3]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000086_viciq12025earningsrelease.htm:4]**; Q4 2024 **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_vici4q24financialsupplem.htm:6]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_vici4q24financialsupplem.htm:7]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_vici4q24financialsupplem.htm:9]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_vici4q24financialsupplem.htm:15]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_viciq42024earningsrelease.htm:1]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_viciq42024earningsrelease.htm:6]** **[1705696_0001705696-25-000032_viciq42024earningsrelease.htm:7]**
- Estimates: S&P Global (values marked *): [GetEstimates]