VICI PROPERTIES INC. (VICI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered steady internal growth: Total revenues rose 4.4% YoY to $1.01B and diluted EPS was $0.71, while AFFO per share increased 5.3% YoY to $0.60 .
• Results beat Wall Street consensus on both revenue and EPS; the company also modestly raised the low end of full‑year AFFO guidance and reaffirmed per‑share guidance range (raised low end by $0.01) .
• Non‑cash CECL allowance remained an earnings swing factor; management emphasized resilient rent collections and high EBITDA flow‑through supported by very low G&A (≈1.6% of revenue) .
• Strategic update: announced Clairvest as 14th tenant via Northfield Park lease; management underscored disciplined capital allocation, leverage ≈5.0x LQA, and strong liquidity to fund growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• AFFO per share growth of 5.3% YoY (to $0.60), with Adjusted EBITDA up to $825.6M; high flow‑through given low G&A (≈1.6% of revenue) .
  “Our margins run in the high 90% range…our G&A was $16.3 million…only 1.6% of total revenues” — CFO .
• Resilient Las Vegas exposure and diversification: Venetian reported strong summer performance (record hotel revenue and gaming volumes), and management sees robust group pace into 2026 .
  “The Venetian…continues to perform remarkably well, with record hotel revenues and gaming volumes this summer” — President & COO .
• Guidance tightened up: raised the 2025 AFFO low end and reaffirmed per‑share range; dividend increased 4% to $0.45, the eighth consecutive annual increase .

What Went Wrong

• CECL remains a headwind to GAAP earnings volatility: Q3 recognized a $20.2M positive change, but management reiterates its unpredictability and inability to guide GAAP net income .
• Las Vegas leisure softness and Canadian travel impacts weighed on certain operators; management framed as “idiosyncratic headwinds” and a “short‑term blip,” but it bears monitoring .
• Transaction costs of $7.4M in Q2 (write‑offs from pursuits) illustrate the cost of pipeline development even when deals don’t close; ongoing diligence can pressure non‑GAAP adds if repeated .

Financial Results

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Highlights:

• Q3 revenue beat: +$5.1M vs consensus; Q3 EPS beat: +$0.024 .
• Q2 EPS was a significant beat, aided by positive CECL swing; Q1 EPS missed, driven by CECL headwind .

Guidance Changes

Management again did not guide GAAP net income due to unpredictability of CECL impacts .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “For Q3 2025, we grew our AFFO per share earnings by 5.3% versus Q3 2024.” — CEO .
• “Our margins run in the high 90% range…G&A…1.6% of total revenues…one of the lowest ratios across all REITs.” — CFO .
• “The Venetian…continues to perform remarkably well, with record hotel revenues and gaming volumes this summer.” — President & COO .
• “Northfield Park lease will have initial annual base rent of $53–$54M…rent under the MGM master lease will decrease by the same amount…no change to total rent collected by VICI.” — President & COO .
• “AFFO…now expected to be between $2.51B and $2.52B, or between $2.36 and $2.37 per diluted share.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

• Lease amendments and partner problem‑solving: VICI aims for “win‑win” outcomes, citing Northfield Park severance lease as template .
• Clairvest transaction: single‑asset coverage higher vs inclusion under a large master lease; total rent unchanged post severance .
• iGaming stance: nuanced, state‑by‑state; underwriting considers digital impacts and supply trends in regional markets .
• New York license: MGM Yonkers has option (not obligation) to use VICI financing; VICI free to partner on other bids .
• Caesars Forum Convention Center call right: optionality opens Sept 2025; decision timing flexible over multiple years .
• Balance sheet: comfort around ~5x leverage, focus on debt laddering and retained cash flow to fund growth .

Estimates Context

• Q3 beat: revenue +0.5% and EPS +3.5% vs S&P Global consensus; partially aided by strong lease‑based revenues and low G&A .
• Q2 beat: large EPS outperformance driven by positive CECL swing; underscores non‑cash volatility in GAAP earnings .
• Q1 miss: CECL headwind pressured GAAP EPS despite stable cash metrics (AFFO per share up YoY) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Cash engine intact: High rent escalators and very low G&A continue to drive strong AFFO per share and EBITDA flow‑through, supporting dividend durability and total return focus .
• Guidance nudged higher: FY25 AFFO low end raised; per‑share range tightened—watch for sustained internal growth and selective external deployment (mezz loans, partner property growth) .
• CECL is the swing factor: Expect ongoing GAAP EPS volatility; anchor on AFFO per share and rent collections to gauge underlying performance .
• Las Vegas narrative: Near‑term leisure softness vs strong group/convention tailwinds; Venetian strength and embedded escalators highlight resilience .
• Tenant diversification: Clairvest entry via Northfield Park with rent preservation across leases is a template for de‑risked transitions .
• Balance sheet readiness: 5.0x LQA leverage, ample liquidity ($3.1B) provide flexibility to fund pipeline without heavy market reliance .
• Near‑term catalysts: Caesars Forum call right optionality; continued partner capex (bonus depreciation tailwind); disciplined move into select experiential adjacencies (youth/college sports, theme parks) .

Note: Non‑GAAP measures such as AFFO and Adjusted EBITDA follow company definitions; GAAP-to-non‑GAAP reconciliations are provided in the supplemental materials .