VC
VICOR CORP (VICR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 revenue was $94.0M, down 2.3% q/q and up 12.0% y/y; gross margin contracted to 47.2% (from 52.4% in Q4), and diluted EPS was $0.06. Both revenue and EPS missed S&P Global consensus for Q1 ($96.6M revenue, $0.195 EPS). Backlog rose to $171.7M, and book-to-bill was >1, providing a constructive setup into 2H25* .
- Sequential margin compression reflected lower royalty income and transient manufacturing inefficiencies tied to the SAP ERP cutover; tariff expense was ~$0.7M. Management will add a 10% tariff surcharge on shipments after July 2 to preserve margins .
- AI/VPD roadmap: Gen-2 VPD progressed with arrival of the critical ASIC; management targets initial deliveries to the lead customer and production ramp in 2H25, followed by demo systems to processor vendors and hyperscalers .
- Licensing/IP: One licensee transitioned to an unlicensed product, pressuring Q1 royalties, but management expects licensing income to be a growth contributor and noted ITC exclusion and cease-and-desist orders that bar importation of infringing computing systems post presidential review .
- Stock reaction catalysts: headline miss vs consensus*, margin contraction, withheld quarterly guidance, tariff surcharge implementation, and advancing AI/VPD milestones that could re-rate sentiment on execution in 2H25 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Backlog/ordering momentum: Book-to-bill >1 and backlog increased 10.4% q/q to $171.7M, supported by new NBM orders from a hyperscaler licensee .
- Cash generation and balance sheet: Operating cash flow rose to $20.1M, cash increased to $296.1M q/q, inventories declined 7.1% q/q, DSOs were 43 days, and inventory turns were 1.7 .
- Strategic product progress: “Our 2nd generation VPD for leading AI applications is coming to fruition with the arrival of an ASIC raising the density and bandwidth of our current multipliers” — CEO Dr. Vinciarelli .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential margin compression: Gross margin fell to 47.2% (down ~520bps q/q), driven by ERP transition (utilization/absorption, consulting, compensation), lower royalty revenue, FICA reset, and incremental depreciation from U.S. manufacturing investments .
- Royalty pressure from a licensee transition: “Reduced income from a licensee transitioning to a new generation of unlicensed products” weighed on Q1 gross margin and profitability .
- Tariffs and China exposure: Tariff expense was ~$700K; reciprocal Chinese tariffs prompted some cancellation requests (not yet material), leading VICR to institute a 10% tariff surcharge across the portfolio after July 2 to protect margins .
Financial Results
Values marked with * are from S&P Global; actual values cited from company disclosures. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (press release): “Revenues and gross margins declined sequentially, with reduced income from a licensee transitioning to a new generation of unlicensed products. Margin improvements await higher utilization of our ChiP fab and increased income from existing and future licensees.”
- CEO (press release): “Our 2nd generation VPD for leading AI applications is coming to fruition with the arrival of an ASIC raising the density and bandwidth of our current multipliers.”
- CFO: Q1 margin decline drivers included SAP ERP transition effects (utilization/absorption, consulting), lower royalty revenue, FICA reset, and incremental depreciation; tariff expense was ~$700K .
- Sales/Marketing VP: NBM orders from a hyperscaler licensee; strong engagement on 800V→48V bus converters for future rack power architectures; SAM >$5B by 2028 .
- CEO (IP): ITC final determination establishes exclusion and C&D orders; Vicor intends to appeal Foxconn license finding; post-review importation of infringing computing systems is barred .
Q&A Highlights
- Licensing transition impact: Management confirmed a licensee moved to an unlicensed product, pressuring Q1 royalties, but expects licensing to be a growth business; infringing modules imported by non-licensee hyperscalers would be subject to injunction .
- Tariff surcharge mechanics: A 10% surcharge will be applied across the portfolio after early July; analysis suggests it preserves margins despite product-specific tariff impacts as high as ~31–32% in some high-volume SKUs .
- VPD ramp timeline: With the ASIC received and successful testing underway, management targets production ramp in 2H25 for the lead customer, followed by demos to broader customers; acknowledges complex multi-disciplinary ramp challenges .
- Fab performance and margin outlook: SAP project is complete; margin improvement depends on higher fab loading and licensing income; near-term tariffs mitigated by surcharge starting Q3 .
- NBM trajectory: Management anticipates NBM demand growth tied to IP enforcement and hyperscaler licensing; brick products expected to be steady .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 missed consensus: Actual revenue $94.0M vs consensus $96.6M*; actual EPS $0.06 vs consensus $0.195* .
- Q4 2024 beat consensus: Actual revenue $96.2M vs consensus $91.0M*; actual EPS $0.23 vs consensus $0.145* .
- Implications: Near-term estimate revisions may skew lower on EPS given royalty volatility, transient ERP/SAP impact, and tariff headwinds until surcharge flows through Q3; medium-term estimates could stabilize/improve with backlog strength, NBM orders, licensing adds, and the 2H25 VPD ramp .
Values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Headline miss vs S&P Global consensus* on revenue and EPS, driven by royalty decline and transient manufacturing inefficiencies; backlog strength and book-to-bill >1 cushion forward outlook .
- Margin compression should abate as SAP transition effects fade, fab loading rises, and tariff surcharge takes effect from Q3 to preserve gross margins .
- VPD execution is the central 2H25 catalyst: ASIC received, lead-customer ramp targeted, demos next; watch for proof points through summer into 2H25 .
- Licensing/IP enforcement is structurally supportive post-ITC final determination (exclusion/C&D orders), though quarter-to-quarter royalties may remain lumpy as additional licenses are negotiated .
- Product mix is tilting toward Advanced Products and NBMs; expect Brick to be steady, with HPC/A&D/industrial contributing to Advanced growth .
- Tariff dynamics introduce near-term risk in China but appear manageable globally; pricing actions should maintain margins, mitigating input cost rises .
- Trading lens: Near-term sentiment hinges on visibility to margin recovery and VPD milestones; medium-term thesis rests on AI/HPC penetration, licensing scale, and fab utilization driving operating leverage .