Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered higher operating intensity ahead of 2025 catalysts: net loss was $23.8M and diluted EPS was -$0.57; total operating expenses were $25.1M, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $97.8M with runway into 2026 .
Pipeline momentum: positive Phase 1 data for VG-3927 (oral TREM2 agonist) supports once-daily dosing and robust CSF sTREM2 reduction; Phase 2 initiation targeted for Q3 2025; IGNITE Phase 2 final analysis for iluzanebart in ALSP targeted for Q2 2025 with an accelerated approval pathway intent .
Sequential cash decline from $111.3M in Q3 to $97.8M in Q4 reflects increased clinical activity; liabilities increased year-over-year while equity declined, consistent with R&D ramp and development-stage profile .
Trend context: net loss widened sequentially to $(23.8)M in Q4 vs $(19.3)M in Q3 and $(21.2)M in Q2; R&D rose to $18.7M in Q4 from $13.8M in Q3 and $15.5M in Q2, driven by VG-3927 and program advancement .
Near-term stock catalysts: Q2 2025 IGNITE final analysis (iluzanebart ALSP) and Q3 2025 VG-3927 Phase 2 initiation; management intends to pursue accelerated approval for iluzanebart, which could be a key re-rating event if data and regulatory interactions are favorable .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Positive VG-3927 Phase 1 data: highly CNS penetrant, favorable safety/tolerability, and dose-dependent CSF sTREM2 reduction (~50%) underpin once-daily oral dosing and a Q3 2025 Phase 2 start. “We recently reported positive Phase 1 data… and we plan to initiate the Phase 2 trial in the third quarter of 2025” — Ivana Magovčević-Liebisch (CEO) .
Clear 2025 catalyst calendar: IGNITE Phase 2 final analysis for iluzanebart in Q2 2025 and intention to pursue accelerated approval in ALSP, advancing a rare disease opportunity with unmet need .
Cash runway into 2026 provides funding visibility through key data readouts and early Phase 2 execution for VG-3927 .

What Went Wrong

Losses widened year-over-year and sequentially: Q4 net loss of $(23.8)M vs $(22.2)M in Q4 2023 and $(19.3)M in Q3 2024, reflecting higher R&D as programs progress .
R&D spend stepped up: Q4 R&D was $18.7M (vs $13.8M in Q3), primarily due to VG-3927 Phase 1 initiation and headcount; 2024 full-year R&D rose to $62.3M vs $60.9M in 2023 .
Balance sheet leverage increased: total liabilities rose to $46.1M from $24.6M year-over-year and equity declined to $71.6M from $116.3M, consistent with development-stage funding mix and expenses .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L and EPS (USD Thousands)

Metric (USD Thousands)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Research and Development ($)	15,540	13,772	18,668
General and Administrative ($)	6,938	6,904	6,446
Total Operating Expenses ($)	22,478	20,676	25,114
Interest Income, net ($)	1,254	1,410	1,277
Net Loss ($)	(21,227)	(19,258)	(23,831)
Net Loss per Share ($)	(0.52)	(0.47)	(0.57)

Revenue, EPS, Margins vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)	N/A – no product revenue reported	N/A – no product revenue reported	N/A – no product revenue reported
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.52)	(0.47)	(0.57)
Gross Margin (%)	N/A (no revenue)	N/A (no revenue)	N/A (no revenue)
EBITDA Margin (%)	N/A (no revenue)	N/A (no revenue)	N/A (no revenue)
vs Estimates (Revenue, EPS)	Unavailable via S&P Global (see Estimates Context)	Unavailable via S&P Global (see Estimates Context)	Unavailable via S&P Global (see Estimates Context)

Balance Sheet Snapshots (USD Thousands)

Metric (USD Thousands)	Q2 2024 (6/30)	Q3 2024 (9/30)	Q4 2024 (12/31)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($)	86,674	111,269	97,795
Total Assets ($)	108,464	131,273	117,691
Total Liabilities ($)	23,192	42,721	46,056
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($)	85,272	88,552	71,635

Year-over-Year Q4 Comparison (USD Thousands, except per share)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q4 2023
Research and Development ($)	18,668	16,782
General and Administrative ($)	6,446	7,075
Total Operating Expenses ($)	25,114	23,857
Net Loss ($)	(23,831)	(22,174)
Net Loss per Share ($)	(0.57)	(0.57)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($)	97,795	117,940
Total Liabilities ($)	46,056	24,606
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($)	71,635	116,252

KPIs (Operating and Pipeline)

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Cash Runway Guidance	Into 2026	Into 2026	Into 2026
VG-3927 Clinical Progress	Interim Phase 1 SAD/MAD data; PK supports QD; robust CSF sTREM2 decrease	Removal of partial clinical hold; dosing in AD cohort; complete Phase 1 data Q1 2025	Positive Phase 1 data; Q3 2025 Phase 2 initiation plan
Iluzanebart (IGNITE) Milestone	Final analysis first half 2025	Final analysis first half 2025	Final analysis Q2 2025; accelerated approval intent

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
IGNITE Phase 2 Final Analysis (iluzanebart)	Q2 2025	First half 2025	Q2 2025	Refined timing (maintained window, specified quarter)
Iluzanebart Regulatory Path	2025	FDA open to accelerated approval consideration; pursue strategy	Intends to pursue accelerated approval pathway; update with final analysis	Affirmed pursuit; clarity on timing of update
VG-3927 Phase 2 Initiation	Q3 2025	Complete Phase 1 data Q1 2025; development to be informed	Phase 2 trial initiation in Q3 2025; 25 mg QD dose	New specific start timing and dose selection
Cash Runway	Through 2026	Into 2026	Into 2026	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; themes reflect company disclosures across the last two quarters and the Q4 press release.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period	Trend
Accelerated approval strategy for iluzanebart (ALSP)	FDA open to considering; preserve IGNITE dataset for 12-month final analysis	Intends to pursue accelerated approval; Q2 2025 final analysis update	Progressing toward regulatory decision points
VG-3927 clinical data (PK/PD, sTREM2)	Interim Phase 1 data: predictable PK for QD; robust CSF sTREM2 decrease	Positive Phase 1 data; ~50% CSF sTREM2 reduction; Phase 2 in Q3 2025	Strengthening evidence; advancing to Phase 2
Partial clinical hold status	FDA removed partial clinical hold in Sep-2024	Noted Phase 1 completion and positive data	Issue resolved; momentum maintained
ALSP prevalence and market opportunity	Publication suggests ALSP prevalence underreported; updated U.S. est. ~19k; EU+UK ~29k	Focus on accelerated approval pathway and biomarker strategy	Continued emphasis on unmet need and regulatory path
Funding runway	Into 2026 (including Sanofi $40M)	Into 2026	Stable
Investor outreach	Multiple investor conference presentations	Presenting VG-3927 data at AD/PD 2025 (Apr 1–5)	Ongoing visibility-building

Management Commentary

“We are entering 2025 with strong momentum, driven by significant progress in the development of our TREM2 programs, VG-3927 and iluzanebart… With a number of upcoming catalysts for our two TREM2 agonist programs, 2025 is set to be a pivotal year for Vigil.” — Ivana Magovčević-Liebisch, President & CEO .
VG-3927 positioning: “As the first and only, Phase 2-ready oral small molecule TREM2 agonist, VG-3927 has the potential to provide a novel, next-generation therapy for Alzheimer’s disease.” — CEO .
Phase 1 clinical strength: “These data demonstrated a favorable safety and tolerability profile… VG-3927 achieved a robust and dose-dependent reduction of sTREM2 of up to approximately 50% in the CSF demonstrating a strong PK/PD relationship…” .
Iluzanebart regulatory path: Company intends to pursue accelerated approval for ALSP, with an update aligned to the final Phase 2 analysis .

Q&A Highlights

A Q4 2024 earnings call transcript could not be located in our document set; Q&A highlights and any call-based guidance clarifications are therefore unavailable [Search returned none; ListDocuments had no earnings-call-transcript for period].

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable due to a missing CIQ mapping for VIGL; as a result, we cannot provide versus-consensus comparisons for this quarter [GetEstimates error: Missing CIQ mapping].
Given the company’s development-stage status and absence of product revenue, near-term EPS variance vs consensus (when available) is typically driven by operating expense timing (trial start/stop, manufacturing, headcount) rather than top-line surprises .

Key Takeaways for Investors

2025 is catalyst-heavy: Q2 IGNITE final analysis (iluzanebart ALSP) and Q3 VG-3927 Phase 2 initiation provide multiple potential inflection points; regulatory intent toward accelerated approval in ALSP raises the stakes for the IGNITE analysis .
R&D ramp is visible and likely persistent into early Phase 2 execution; expect quarterly OpEx to remain elevated relative to Q3 2024 as VG-3927 advances and iluzanebart regulatory work continues .
Cash runway into 2026 is adequate to reach the listed milestones, but balance sheet shows rising liabilities and declining equity, underscoring the importance of successful data readouts and potential strategic financing options post-catalysts .
For near-term trading: watch for April AD/PD presentation (VG-3927 data) and any pre-readout regulatory updates; the Q2 IGNITE final analysis is the primary binary catalyst with potential to drive re-rating on accelerated approval narrative .
Medium-term thesis: if VG-3927 Phase 2 initiates on schedule with a clean safety profile and clear PD engagement, Vigil’s differentiated TREM2 agonist strategy across rare (ALSP) and common (AD) neurodegenerative diseases could broaden its addressable opportunity set .
Risk factors: absence of revenue, dependence on clinical/regulatory outcomes, and variability in quarterly expenses; investors should calibrate position sizing to binary events and consider hedging around Q2 2025 data timing .
Monitoring list: IGNITE final analysis details (biomarker and clinical endpoints), FDA feedback on accelerated approval, VG-3927 Phase 2 design and endpoints, and any incremental financing or partnerships following data .

Appendix: Other Relevant Press Releases (Q4-related context)

VG-3927 positive Phase 1 data (Jan 23, 2025): supports 25mg QD dose selection and Phase 2 initiation in Q3 2025; strong PK/PD profile and ~50% CSF sTREM2 reduction .
Investor presentations scheduled (Mar 11, 2025): continuing outreach and visibility .

Document Citations

Q4 2024 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 press release: .
Q4 2024 press release duplicate listing: .
Q3 2024 8-K and press release: .
Q2 2024 8-K and press release: .
VG-3927 Phase 1 positive data press release (Jan 23, 2025): .

Estimates Unavailable Note: S&P Global consensus retrieval failed due to a missing CIQ mapping for VIGL (GetEstimates error).

Vigil Neuroscience, Inc. (VIGL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary