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VI

Velo3D, Inc. (VLDX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $13.6M, up 46% sequentially vs Q1 2025 ($9.3M) and up 31% year over year vs Q2 2024 ($10.3M); GAAP gross margin was -11.7% (improved YoY from -28.0%), and GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.98 .
  • Management reaffirmed FY 2025 guidance: revenue $50–$60M, >30% GM exiting Q4 2025, Non-GAAP OpEx $40–$50M, CapEx $15–$20M, and EBITDA positive in 1H 2026 (unchanged from Q4 and Q1) .
  • Backlog composition shifted toward Rapid Production Services (RPS); RPS bookings rose 79% QoQ, with 78% of Q2 bookings from new customers, led by Space (54%) and Defense (33%), signaling a mix pivot toward parts production .
  • Liquidity remains a focal risk: cash and cash equivalents were $0.854M at 6/30/2025 (down from $3.87M at 3/31/2025), with current debt of $16.9M and inventory reduced to $38.4M; management highlighted operational discipline and expectations for sequential margin improvement as RPS ramps .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • RPS momentum accelerated: “RPS bookings increased 79% quarter over quarter… New customers represented more than 78% of 2Q’25 bookings” and backlog composition shifted toward RPS, positioning for recurring, higher-margin parts production .
  • Strategic wins in Space/Defense underpin demand: CRADA with NAVAIR labs, $4M two-year MSA with Vaya Space, and master service agreement with Momentus support pipeline visibility and sector focus .
  • Gross margin improved YoY despite remaining negative; OpEx was reduced to $10.5M vs $17.6M in Q2 2024, demonstrating cost discipline and operational efficiencies underway .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin remained negative (-11.7%) due to systems manufactured in 2024 with higher fixed cost/overhead; adjusted EBITDA was -$8.9M, and GAAP net loss was -$13.8M, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges .
  • Liquidity tightness: cash and cash equivalents fell to $0.854M by quarter-end, while current debt rose to $16.9M—raising near-term financing and execution risk despite operational progress .
  • Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable, limiting external benchmarking and potentially constraining investor confidence in near-term forecast comparability (consensus unavailable via S&P Global)*.

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Financial Results

Quarterly progression (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$12.626 $9.320 $13.572
Gross Margin %-3.5% 7.5% -11.7%
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(21.686) $(25.411) $(13.756)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.84) $(0.13) $(0.98)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$21.057 $12.618 $10.501
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(14.611) $(6.916) $(8.903)

YoY comparison

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$10.344 $13.572
Gross Margin %-28.0% -11.7%
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(0.172) $(13.756)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.30) $(0.98)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$17.623 $10.501

Revenue components (oldest → newest)

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
3D Printer$7.980 $7.523 $12.082
Recurring Payment$0.100 $0.000 $0.070
Support Services$4.546 $1.790 $1.359
Other$0.000 $0.007 $0.061
Total Revenue$12.626 $9.320 $13.572

KPIs and balance-sheet markers

KPI / Balance ItemQ1 2025Q2 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$18.0 (as of Mar 31) $15.9 (as of Jun 30)
Backlog ($USD Millions) – subsequent updateN/A$17.8 (as of Jul 25)
RPS Bookings QoQN/AUp 79% QoQ
Bookings MixN/A54% Space; 33% Defense
New Customers Share of BookingsN/A>78%
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$3.870 $0.854
Inventory ($USD Millions)$46.133 $38.417
Debt – Current Portion ($USD Millions)$16.152 $16.913
Debt – Long-Term ($USD Millions)$5.506 $5.562

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$50–$60M $50–$60M Maintained
Gross Margin (%)Q4 2025 exit>30% >30% Maintained
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)FY 2025$40–$50M $40–$50M Maintained
CapEx ($USD Millions)FY 2025$15–$20M $15–$20M Maintained
EBITDA1H 2026Positive Positive Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q2 2025 earnings call was scheduled, but a transcript was not available in our document set; current-period themes reflect the press release and 8-K exhibits .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
RPS ramp/recurring modelLaunch and cornerstone of strategy Backlog tripled post launch; 75% bookings new customers RPS bookings +79% QoQ; backlog shifted toward RPS Strengthening
Defense/Space focus & re-shoringStrategic positioning; backlog $16M 50% of RPS demand defense; multi-year deals Space 54% and Defense 33% of bookings; CRADA with NAVAIR; Vaya MSA Increasing
Gross margin trajectoryNegative GM, improving plan Returned to positive GM in Q1 GM -11.7% due to 2024 manufacturing cost structure; expect sequential improvement Mixed, near-term pressure
Liquidity/capital structureDebt/warrant exchange; $15M bridge Cash $3.9M; reiterated plan Cash $0.854M; current debt $16.9M Elevated risk
Product/program winsSystem sales recovery Momentus MSA; OOW agreement; Mears XC order Vaya Space $4M MSA; NAVAIR CRADA Sustained
Materials/R&D executionStrategy integration with Arrayed Additive Operational efficiency focus Powder qualification milestone with Amaero (C103/Ti-6-4V standards) Progressing

Management Commentary

  • “Our second quarter results reflect solid topline performance. More importantly, the composition of our backlog made a significant shift toward RPS driven by strong demand from the Space and Defense sectors.” — CEO Arun Jeldi .
  • “We are proud to have signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with two NAVAIR federal laboratories… These milestones reflect our continued momentum and commitment to advancing next-generation manufacturing solutions across critical sectors.” — CEO Arun Jeldi .
  • “Looking ahead, we expect to build on this progress quarter by quarter as we continue advancing our position in the additive manufacturing industry.” — CEO Arun Jeldi .
  • Item 2.02 8-K confirms a Q2 2025 press release and investor call; earnings presentation slides furnished (Exhibits 99.1/99.2) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 calls did not include audience questions (operators closed calls without Q&A), limiting external clarifications and tone reads .
  • Guidance clarifications from prepared remarks/press release: system sales remain the primary 2025 revenue driver, with RPS expected to contribute an increasing share beginning in H2 2025; GM expected to improve sequentially with RPS ramp and efficiency gains .
  • Liquidity acknowledged in prepared materials with emphasis on operational discipline; cash at $0.854M and current debt of $16.9M suggest focus on working capital and financing options .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 (Revenue, EPS, EBITDA) was unavailable for VLDX, so an estimates comparison cannot be performed at this time*.
  • Investors should anchor near-term expectations to management guidance ($50–$60M FY revenue; >30% GM exiting Q4 2025) and RPS mix shift, pending broader Street coverage .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Illustrative (consensus unavailable)

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusActual Q2 2025Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A*$13.572 N/A*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)N/A*-$0.98 N/A*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)N/A*-$8.903 N/A*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The demand narrative is pivoting to RPS, evidenced by +79% QoQ RPS bookings and a backlog shift toward parts production, with Space/Defense leading—this should be a medium-term margin catalyst as utilization scales .
  • Gross margin remains negative due to legacy cost absorption, but management guides to sequential improvement and >30% GM exiting Q4 2025; execution on efficiency and RPS ramp is the core swing factor .
  • Liquidity is tight (cash $0.854M; current debt $16.913M), increasing the importance of disciplined working capital, potential external financing, and timely collections as the business transitions .
  • Strategic partnerships (NAVAIR CRADA; Vaya Space MSA; Momentus MSA; OOW engineering support) validate sector positioning and may improve revenue visibility and mix quality through H2 and into 2026 .
  • Revenue growth trajectory is intact (reaffirmed $50–$60M for FY 2025), but profitability milestones (EBITDA positive 1H 2026) require both margin expansion and opex control to stay on track .
  • System sales are still the primary driver in 2025; watch RPS contribution and backlog conversion in H2 to gauge durability of the recurring-model transition .
  • With consensus coverage unavailable, the stock’s near-term reaction likely hinges on narrative momentum (RPS, Space/Defense wins) versus liquidity concerns; traders should monitor cash updates and contract execution cadence closely (backlog updates to $17.8M by 7/25) .

Source Documents Read (Q2 2025 and prior)

  • Q2 2025 earnings press release and 8-K exhibits .
  • Q1 2025 press release and transcript .
  • Q4 2024 press release and transcript .
  • Relevant Q2 press releases: CRADA with NAVAIR (Jun 4) , Vaya Space $4M MSA (Jun 11) , Momentus $15M MSA (Apr 14) , OOW engineering agreement (May 5) , Mears fourth Sapphire XC (Apr 8) , Board changes (Apr 28) .