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VOLITIONRX LTD (VNRX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $0.25M, up 44% year over year; diluted EPS was -$0.06. Management emphasized first-ever regulated human product revenue from CE-marked Nu.Q NETs and continued cost control, with total operating expenses down 33% YoY and net cash used in operations ~$4.30M for the quarter .
  • Versus Wall Street: revenue missed consensus ($0.25M vs $1.08M*) and EPS missed (-$0.06 vs -$0.044*). Significant miss driven by early-stage commercialization and lumpy demand; the company does not provide revenue guidance .
  • Commercial catalysts: licensing discussions with “more than ten” companies (seven with combined market value >$600B), ongoing evaluations on partner platforms, and progress toward national lung cancer screening inclusion; nine hospital networks in five countries began using CE-marked Nu.Q NETs with more evaluations expected in H2 2025 .
  • Liquidity actions: subsequent to quarter-end, Volition entered a $6.25M senior secured convertible note (repayable over 24 months after a 6‑month holiday) to extend runway toward its FY2025 cash-neutral goal (cash basis) .
  • Near-term stock narrative hinges on human licensing signings, CE-mark NETs clinical adoption, and interim lung cancer screening data; risks include going-concern language and reliance on external financing/licensing timing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • First regulated human product revenue: “recorded our first revenue from sales of our CE-marked Nu.Q NETs automated product in Europe in Quarter 1 2025,” marking a commercial inflection for human diagnostics .
  • Cost discipline: total operating expenses fell to $5.77M (-33% YoY), with sales/marketing down 45% and R&D down 44%; monthly net cash used in ops averaged ~$1.4M (~50% lower vs Q1 2024), supporting 2025 cash-neutral goal on a cash basis .
  • Strategic momentum: confidential talks with “more than ten companies,” seven with >$600B combined market cap; multiple platform transfers and impending evaluations on partner analyzers (Azure-like TAM framing for NETs, cancer) .

Sample management quotes:

  • “2025 is a pivotal year…commercializing our ground breaking Nu.Q® platform in the human diagnostics market…in confidential discussions with more than ten companies…seven…exceeds $600billion” .
  • “We recorded our very first revenue from sales of our CE Marked Nu.Q NETs automated product in Europe in Q1 of this year” .

What Went Wrong

  • Topline vs estimates: revenue materially below consensus, reflecting early-stage commercialization and lumpy partner ordering; company reiterated it will not provide revenue guidance .
  • Ongoing losses and financing need: net loss of ~$5.48M and going-concern disclosure; reliance on financing and licensing to sustain operations (convertible note secured post quarter) .
  • Visibility: distribution partners typically do not share sell-through detail, limiting near-term forecasting precision and contributing to quarterly lumpiness concerns raised in Q&A .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)$474,522 ~$200,000 (derived: FY $1.2M − YTD $1.0M) $246,385
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.066*-$0.062*-$0.06
Net Income ($USD)-$5,821,529*-$5,793,373*-$5,423,759

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue vs Estimates (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD)$1,084,000*$246,385
Primary EPS ($USD)-$0.044*-$0.06

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Margins and EBITDA (latest three quarters):

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)$627,277 $406,688 $246,385
EBITDA ($USD)-$4,852,737*-$6,045,119*-$5,269,779*
Gross Profit Margin %100%*100%*100%*

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue composition (Q1 2025):

MetricQ1 2025
Product Revenue ($USD)$130,909
Service Revenue ($USD)$115,476

Operating and Cash KPIs:

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$8,556,039 $5,768,105
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities ($USD)$8,342,384 $4,298,018
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD)$11,772,163 (Q1 2024 end) $2,600,342 (Q1 2025 end)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue GuidanceFY 2025No guidance provided No guidance provided Maintained
Cash Neutrality (cash basis)FY 2025Goal to be cash neutral Goal to be cash neutral Maintained
Operating Expense TrajectoryFY 2025Cost reductions underway Continued lower opex; -33% YoY in Q1 Improved execution
Financing/liquidity2025Expect non-dilutive funding; raised ~$2.3M Mar 2025 $6.25M senior secured convertible note finalized post quarter Strengthened liquidity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Human licensing (NETs, oncology)Active discussions; data rooms opened >10 companies engaged; seven with >$600B combined market cap; evaluations starting Momentum building
CE-mark NETs clinical adoptionPilots and KOL advocacy First regulated human revenue; 9 hospital networks in 5 countries; more evaluations in H2 Adoption progressing
Lung cancer screening (Taiwan, Lyon)800‑patient study and screening pathway; Lyon survival/prognosis data Final validation study enrolling rapidly; interim analysis targeted for ESMO Oct; potential screening inclusion Advancing toward screening
Cost managementOpex and cash burn reduction Opex -33% YoY; cash ops ~$4.3M; sustainable cost focus Sustained discipline
Vet automation (Japan)National launch; YTD >110k tests by Q3 Fujifilm Vet extended to IDS i10 automation; >1,000 hospitals registered Scaling infrastructure
Nu.Q Discover (pharma studies)Increasing sample processing, repeat customers First human clinical study expected to generate significant revenue; pipeline to double pillar revenue Larger deals forming
Financing/going concernYTD non-dilutive funding; going concern noted Lind $6.25M note closed post quarter; going-concern remains Liquidity strengthened; risk persists

Management Commentary

  • “Our goal is to secure multiple licensing agreements in the human diagnostics space this year…with diverse deal structures, all with ongoing revenue and some to include milestone payments” .
  • “Nine hospital networks in five countries have placed orders and are currently assessing its clinical utility…with at least nine evaluations anticipated to start in the second half of this year” .
  • “Total operating expenses for the quarter declined 35% compared to the first quarter of 2024…net cash used in operating activities was $4.3 million…Revenue-wise, we recorded almost $0.25 million…a growth of 44% YoY” .
  • “Positive findings could position our Nu.Q test for inclusion in national lung cancer screening programs representing a potential market exceeding $1 billion…implemented relatively quickly…as a lab-developed test” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Expense sustainability: Management affirmed sustained lower opex, emphasizing commercialization focus and lean operations through licensing partners handling lab/regulatory work .
  • Feline cancer milestone: Pre-analytics paper accepted; moving to clinical data to unlock remaining milestone payment under Antech/Heska agreement .
  • Discover revenue recognition: First samples in Q2; revenue spread over longer study duration; confidentiality limits naming but management described it as “very meaningful” .
  • Partner sell-through visibility: Large distributors are reticent to share detailed sell-through, contributing to quarterly lumpiness; expanding distributors expected to smooth trends over time .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 revenue and EPS missed consensus: revenue $0.25M vs $1.08M* and EPS -$0.06 vs -$0.044*, reflecting early commercialization and lumpy ordering; the company reiterates no revenue guidance at this stage .

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Street likely lowers near-term revenue trajectories for human diagnostics while increasing focus on licensing timing and CE-mark NETs hospital adoption pace .
  • Expense trajectories and cash-basis neutrality may support EPS revisions as cost discipline continues .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution pivot: First regulated human revenue and expanding CE-mark NETs hospital evaluations mark tangible progress toward human diagnostics monetization; watch for additional hospital adoptions and licensing signings in 2025 .
  • Licensing is the primary catalyst: Multiple large players in active evaluation, with seven counterparties representing >$600B combined market value—deal announcements could be stock-moving events .
  • Screening optionality: Interim lung cancer data (ESMO Oct) and Taiwan validation study could unlock inclusion in national programs; this could drive meaningful test volumes and revenue visibility .
  • Cost discipline enhances runway: Opex down 33% YoY and net cash used in ops ~$4.3M; combined with the $6.25M convertible, liquidity improved as the company pursues cash-neutrality in FY2025 (cash basis) .
  • Near-term trading setup: Expect volatility around licensing headlines, CE-mark NETs adoption updates, and ESMO interim data; misses vs consensus in Q1 reflect lumpy demand—management does not provide revenue guidance, emphasizing full-year cash-neutral target .
  • Risk management: Going-concern disclosure persists and financing covenants exist under the Lind note; dependence on external partners and regulatory timelines requires position sizing discipline .
  • Vet pillar scaling: Automation with Fujifilm Vet Systems (IDS i10) aims to improve throughput and turnaround; broader vet adoption supports base revenue while human licensing ramps .