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VL

VOLITIONRX LTD (VNRX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue of $0.63M grew 32% year over year, but missed consensus ($0.63M vs $0.72M); EPS of -$0.053 missed (-$0.044 consensus) as Volition continues early-stage commercialization across human diagnostics pillars.* *
  • Operating expenses fell ~10% YoY with tighter cost controls; operating cash burn improved to -$3.63M in Q3 from -$6.26M in Q2.* *
  • Strategic progress accelerated: signed a research license and exclusive commercial option rights agreement in APS with Werfen and a co-marketing/services agreement with Hologic to expand Nu.Q Discover access, both highlighting commercial traction with large partners .
  • Subsequent to quarter, Volition raised ~$6.1M net in a confidentially-marketed offering, extending runway while licensing discussions with ~10 large diagnostics/liquid biopsy companies progress .
  • Narrative catalysts: human licensing deal momentum (Werfen), channel expansion (Hologic), and improving cost discipline; near-term stock drivers likely tied to additional licensing announcements, peer-reviewed publications (incl. Capture-Seq), and funding updates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Signed first human out-licensing agreement (APS with Werfen) including research license and exclusive commercial option rights; early results encouraging on Werfen’s ACL AcuStar platform .
  • Co-marketing/services agreement with Hologic to broaden Nu.Q Discover’s reach to pharma, biotech, academic and government clients; targeting an estimated ~$200M TAM for the service offering .
  • Management highlighted accelerating discussion funnel with ~10 leading diagnostics/liquid biopsy companies across due diligence, tech transfer, sample evaluation, term sheets, and contract negotiations: “We anticipate further human licensing deals…” .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue and EPS missed Wall Street consensus in Q3 (Revenue: $0.63M vs $0.72M; EPS: -$0.053 vs -$0.044) reflecting the inherent lumpiness of early-stage commercialization and limited revenue visibility.* *
  • Cash and equivalents declined to ~$0.20M at quarter end, requiring subsequent financing; cash neutrality goal remains aspirational and dependent on licensing receipts ramping in H2/H1’26.* *
  • Limited quantitative disclosure on segment/pillar revenue and no formal revenue guidance, constraining visibility for investors despite promising partnership progress .

Financial Results

Income Statement Trends and Estimates Comparison

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$0.475M*$0.192M*$0.246M*$0.407M*$0.627M*
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.066*-$0.062*-$0.056*-$0.061*-$0.050*
Net Income ($USD)-$5.82M*-$5.79M*-$5.42M*-$6.28M*-$5.38M*

Notes: All values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Operating MetricsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$6.34M*$5.97M*$5.77M*$6.70M*$5.73M*
Cash from Operations ($USD)-$5.39M*-$5.43M*-$4.30M*-$6.26M*-$3.63M*
Cash and Equivalents ($USD)$5.41M*$3.26M*$2.60M*$2.26M*$0.20M*

Notes: All values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 2025 Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensus*Actual*Surprise
Revenue ($USD)$0.716M*$0.627M*-12.4%
EPS ($USD)-$0.044*-$0.053*-$0.009 (more negative)

Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

  • Volition does not report formal segment revenues; management highlights pillars (Nu.Q NETs, Nu.Q Cancer, Nu.Q Discover, Nu.Q Vet) but provides limited quantitative pillar disclosure .

Selected KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Nu.Q Discover clients (count)“10+ repeat customers” N/A“over 20 clients worldwide”
Hospital networks evaluating CE-marked Nu.Q NETs (EU)9 networks across 5 countries N/AOngoing; not updated in Q3 PR
Human agreements signed (count)0 0 2 (Werfen APS; Hologic co-marketing)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue GuidanceFY 2025None provided; “revenues remain fairly lumpy… will not be providing revenue guidance for 2025” None provided in Q3 Maintained (no guidance)
Cash Neutrality GoalFY 2025Goal to be cash neutral on a full-year basis in 2025 (income incl. licensing receipts matches expenditure) Not reiterated in Q3 release; still referenced as 2025 focus across licensing/commercialization Maintained (implicit)
Operating Expense DirectionFY 2025Down vs 2024; tighter control Q3 OpEx down ~10% YoY; YTD down 18% Maintained (cost discipline)
Financing/RunwayN/AConvertible loan note $6.25M (post-Q1) Net proceeds ~$6.1M from offering post-Q3 Updated (incremental capital)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Human licensing pipeline“Confidential discussions with >10 companies; two majors in active negotiations” “Expect first human agreement this quarter” Two agreements signed (Werfen APS; Hologic co-marketing); ~10 companies at various stages Accelerating
Nu.Q Discover adoptionFirst pharma-sponsored clinical study; revenue meaningful, 2-year duration Ongoing pilots; expanding services “Over 20 clients” globally; co-marketing with Hologic Expanding
Cost disciplineOpEx -35% YoY Q1; focus to keep costs lower vs prior year Budgeted lower spend vs 2024 OpEx down ~10% YoY; YTD -18%; operating cash burn improved Improving
NETs EU commercializationFirst CE-marked human product revenue; 9 hospital networks evaluating Continued evaluations No quantitative update; continued emphasis on sepsis and NETosis use cases Stable to positive
R&D/publicationsMultiple manuscripts; conferences Anticipated progress Anticipate peer-reviewed publications across pillars incl. Capture-Seq Building evidence

Management Commentary

  • “We anticipate further human licensing deals with a range of large companies and will update on progress as they are completed.” — Cameron Reynolds, President & CEO .
  • “We have made significant progress on several publications… including our ground-breaking Capture-Seq™ technology.” .
  • “We believe the ability to concentrate chromatin fragments and therefore tumor DNA, has great potential in the liquid biopsy field.” .
  • On Werfen APS: “Early results in NETs levels detection in APS patients with the Nu.Q® test are encouraging… validate further and complete a clinical utility study.” — Werfen R&D Director .
  • On Hologic: “This is a significant milestone… will greatly expand customer access to our proprietary Nu.Q® Discover assays.” — Dr. Jasmine Kway .

Q&A Highlights

  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not publicly available as of this report; the call was scheduled for November 14, 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET) .
  • Prior context (Q1 2025): Management emphasized sustainable cost reductions (OpEx down; conference spend controlled), limited visibility/lumpiness in revenue, and progression in Nu.Q Discover clinical study revenue recognition timing .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue missed consensus ($0.627M vs $0.716M; -12.4% surprise) and EPS missed (-$0.053 vs -$0.044; -$0.009 delta). Early commercialization and limited guidance likely contributed to estimate variability.*
  • FY 2025 consensus revenue ~$2.04M and EPS normalized -$0.208, with target price consensus ~$2.74 (six estimates); trajectory of licensing receipts and Discover contracts could drive revisions.*
  • Near-term estimate risk skew: neutral to slightly negative on Q4 if additional licensing milestones slip; upside contingent on new deals/publications and clearer revenue cadence.*

Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commercial traction is real: first human out-licensing (Werfen APS) and Hologic co-marketing materially broaden commercial pathways for Nu.Q pillars .
  • Revenue/EPS miss underscores the lumpy nature of early-stage commercialization; absent revenue guidance, monitor cadence of licensing announcements and Discover contract wins.* *
  • Cost discipline is delivering: OpEx down ~10% YoY and operating cash burn improved; execution on lean model (partner-led platform work) supports runway .
  • Liquidity enhanced post-quarter via ~$6.1M net equity raise; expect non-dilutive funding and milestone payments to be critical to FY25 cash neutrality objective .
  • Scientific validation building: anticipated peer-reviewed publications across pillars (incl. Capture-Seq) could catalyze partner deals and future companion diagnostics .
  • Watch near-term catalysts: additional human licensing deals, Nu.Q Discover client growth via Hologic channel, and updates on EU CE-mark NETs hospital integrations .
  • Trading implications: stock likely reacts positively to tangible deal/milestone cash inflows and publication data; conversely, delays in licensing or funding could pressure shares given low cash at quarter-end .

Estimates and financial values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Press release and 8-K information cited accordingly: Q3 PR/8-K ; Q2 PR/8-K ; Q1 PR/8-K and call -; Werfen APS -; Hologic -; Nu.Q Discover expansion -; Lateral flow test -.