VL
VOLITIONRX LTD (VNRX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 missed Street on revenue and modestly on EPS: revenue $0.19M vs $0.55M est. and EPS -$0.06 vs -$0.053 est.; FY 2024 also below on revenue $1.23M vs $1.74M est. and essentially in-line on EPS -$0.31 vs -$0.308 est. (lumpiness tied to distributor stocking) (S&P Global*)
- Vet momentum and validation ramped: ~120,000 Nu.Q Vet tests sold in 2024 (vs 58,000 in 2023) and availability expanded to 20+ countries .
- Management pivoting from data generation to monetization: “2025 is about signing multiple licensing deals for human indications,” with active discussions in sepsis and oncology and a goal to be cash-neutral in 2025 .
- Balance sheet tight but supplemented post year-end; cash was $3.3M at Dec 31, 2024; subsequently received ~$1.8M non-dilutive Belgian funding and ~$2.3–$2.5M equity proceeds; FY24 10-K carries a going-concern explanatory paragraph .
- Key catalysts: potential human licensing deals (NETs and oncology), NTU 500-patient lung validation (2025 completion), vet central-lab automation, and EU NETs centers adopting CE-marked test for clinical use in 2026 .
Asterisk denotes values retrieved from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Human licensing pipeline advanced; management emphasized: “2025 is about signing multiple licensing deals… strong and broad interest” .
- Vet traction: ~120,000 tests sold and availability in 20+ countries; Fuji, Antech and others broadening reach; Discover revenues and repeat customers growing .
- Robust clinical validation: large NETs-in-sepsis datasets presented; 800-patient lung study differentiated malignant/benign nodules; Lyon data show H3K27me3 prognostic utility .
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What Went Wrong
- Q4 revenue shortfall (stocking-driven lumpiness): CFO flagged batch ordering by large customers and lack of near-term revenue guidance .
- Liquidity and burn: FY24 operating cash outflow $25.9M; YE cash $3.3M; going-concern paragraph in 10-K .
- Visibility: Company refrained from providing 2025 revenue guidance given early commercialization stage and lumpiness .
Financial Results
Quarterly revenue and EPS vs estimates
Full-year actuals vs estimates
Margins (quarterly)
Segment/Pillar contribution (FY 2024)
KPIs and operating indicators
Asterisk denotes values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2025 is about signing multiple licensing deals for human indications… strong and broad interest in potential out-licensing and/or supply agreements for both Nu.Q NETs and our oncology portfolio” .
- “We sold approximately 120,000 Nu.Q Vet cancer tests in 2024… resulting in a 75% increase in vet revenue versus 2023” .
- CFO: “We will not be providing revenue guidance for 2025… revenues remain fairly lumpy” .
- CMO on NETs: Elevated H3.1 nucleosome levels in sepsis associated with increased risk of mortality and organ failure; 2025 about showcasing data and advancing licensing .
- CMO on oncology: Nu.Q H3K27me3 a strong prognostic marker in NSCLC; automated pan-cancer immunoassay submitted to medRxiv; licensing discussions in progress .
Q&A Highlights
- Feline milestone with Antech: Platform adapted for cats; milestone expected upon completion this year; potential $5M payment .
- Revenue lumpiness: Large customers buy in batches; central-lab automation and growing Element i+ installed base expected to smooth over time; near-term Discover contracts stepping up in size .
- Financing/cash: Burn trending down as big studies wind down; ongoing non-dilutive support from Wallonia; tight expense control while pursuing licenses .
- National screening programs: Active dialogues in Taiwan and France; order-of-magnitude potential tens of thousands of tests (small markets) to hundreds of thousands (large programs) at up to ~$50/test .
- Discover contracts: Pipeline moving from small pilots to mid-hundreds of thousands per engagement, with potential to scale to millions as companion diagnostics .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2024: Revenue $0.19M vs $0.55M est. (miss) and EPS -$0.06 vs -$0.053 est. (slight miss). FY 2024: Revenue $1.23M vs $1.74M est. (miss) and EPS -$0.31 vs -$0.308 est. (inline/slight miss). Drivers include stocking dynamics and early-stage commercialization (S&P Global*).
- Street may reduce near-term revenue trajectories and smooth the quarterly cadence given batch ordering and management’s decision not to provide revenue guidance; longer-term upside if human licensing milestones land in 2025 as targeted .
Asterisk denotes values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term revenue cadence remains lumpy; central-lab automation (Fuji IDS) and Element i+ rollouts are key to smoothing vet sell-through in 2025 .
- 2025 pivot to monetization: multiple human licensing agreements (NETs and oncology) are the principal stock catalysts and the linchpin of the cash-neutral target .
- Clinical validation continues to stack: >3,000-patient sepsis datasets and 800-patient lung study de-risk the human portfolio; additional publications expected in 2025 .
- Liquidity is constrained but supplemented post year-end; maintain focus on non-dilutive funding and milestone inflows (e.g., feline $5M) to bridge to licensing cash .
- Watch for national screening program wins (Taiwan, France) and EU clinical adoption of CE-mark NETs in 2026; either would materially expand test volumes and validation .
- Cost actions are real and ongoing (FY OpEx -23%; H2 -31% y/y), supporting path to cash neutrality assuming licensing receipts commence in 2025 .
Appendix: Additional Context and Sources
- YE 2024 press release and 8-K (includes FY revenue, OpEx trends, cash, distribution footprint, going-concern disclosure) .
- Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (licensing strategy, segment color, burn/cash, Discover pipeline, lung/NETs clinical updates) .
- Prior quarter materials for trend analysis (Q3/Q2 2024 PRs and calls) .
- Lung cancer study and NETs sepsis symposium press releases (Q4 2024) .
Asterisk denotes values retrieved from S&P Global.