Vontier - Q2 2024
August 1, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Vontier second quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press the star button and zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on August 1, 2024, and a replay will be made available shortly after. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Edelman, Vontier's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ryan Edelman (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call this morning to discuss our second quarter results. With me today are Mark Morelli, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Anshooman Aga, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You can find both our press release as well as our slide presentation that we'll refer to during today's call on the investor relations section of our website at investors.vontier.com. Please note that during today's call, we'll present certain non-GAAP financial measures. We'll also make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today, and we do not assume any obligation to update them.
Information regarding these factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements is available on our website and in our SEC filings. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Mark.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. On today's call, I'll provide a high-level overview of our performance in Q2 and an update on strategy execution as we navigate the current dynamic environment. Anshooman will then provide a deeper dive into Q2 results and conclude with our 2024 outlook update before we move into Q&A. Let's get started with a summary of the quarter on slide 3. Second quarter results were below expectations in a challenging quarter. Elevated macro uncertainty delayed customers' project timing and discretionary spending, impacting orders and shipments at the tail end of the quarter. Our fueling and alternative energy businesses both declined mid-single digits organically, driven by order delays, which pushed shipments into the third quarter. Through July, we've recovered over $20 million of our Q2 shortfall. We continue to see convenience retail operators grow their CapEx budgets.
We're also seeing larger new build projects take priority as the pace of the smaller refresh and retrofit activity slows near term. Market activity continues to be healthy as new site construction projects soak up resources and shorter-term refresh projects push out. Our Repair Solutions segment also declined mid-single digits amid a larger than expected pullback in discretionary spending by service technicians. While technician wages and employment remain strong, prolonged inflation, macro and election uncertainty, and broadening consumer weakness in the U.S. are impacting buying decisions. We continue to perform well against industry benchmarks, but sales for discretionary product lines slowed more at the end of the quarter and will likely remain under pressure until interest rates move lower and work through U.S. election uncertainties.
Despite the headwind from order delays and lower book-and-turn business, core order growth was approximately 1%, and our book-to-bill remained above 1, consistent with the first quarter. Margins decreased on lower volumes. However, gross margins are up year-over-year as we delivered solid price, cost, and productivity, and our new product launches are gaining traction with customers. We estimate the headwind from lower volumes equates to more than 100 basis points headwind relative to our guidance range. Given the incremental macro pressures we saw in a couple of our end markets at the end of Q2 impacting order timing, we're lowering our outlook for the full year. As you know, we're pursuing a business simplification program as part of our strategy. We are accelerating actions to optimize our cost structure and have identified $12 million of in-year savings.
This is incremental to the $50 million run rate savings we delivered in 2023. Our balance sheet remains strong, bolstered by a solid cash flow generation profile. We paid down $100 million in debt year to date, reducing our net leverage to 2.7x. We also repurchased roughly $38 million in shares in Q2. We will prioritize share buybacks in the second half of the year, including an expected accelerated share repurchase program, and Anshooman will provide some more details in a moment. Turn to slide 4. As we manage through near-term market dislocations, we remain focused on what is within our control and positioning Vontier for the future. To that end, we continue to execute our Connected Mobility strategy and driving value creation through our three pillars, which we outlined at our March 2023 Investor Day.
Our strategy is about operational excellence and accelerating growth, capturing secular growth opportunities in our end markets as we deliver more connected, integrated solutions, solving high-value customer problems. Pillar one, optimize our core, is about further optimizing our cost structure to expand operating profit margin. We rely heavily on VBS and the 80/20 principles embedded in our focus and prioritization program. While we continue to reduce our global dispenser platforms, we're also focused on subsystem and component harmonization. As an example, we're reducing our hydraulic configurations by half. We've also reduced our manufacturing footprint by over 600,000 sq ft, with more opportunities for reductions. Recently, we've opened a new center of excellence in India, covering engineering, IT, and other support functions. While improving our capabilities, this is enabling us to reduce overall product development and support costs by nearly a third.
Our incremental cost reductions are indicative of the runway of opportunities to continue to simplify our business. Pillar two, expanding our core, is about leveraging our current market positions to accelerate growth with a focus on driving share gains through innovation and improving product vitality. We're seeing significant interest in our new FlexPay 6 offering, a fully integrated, connected, and flexible payment solution that is uniquely positioned as it incorporates the most up-to-date payment card industry standard, PCI 6. As an example, we're currently deploying FlexPay 6 to an existing large global retailer to enable a fully integrated, personalized loyalty program designed to drive customer engagement and higher in-store traffic across their entire North American footprint. Further, VIS, or our vehicle identification system solution, which leverages smart hardware and cloud-connected technology to create an automated payment security offering, continues to gain traction.
We were recently awarded a multi-year contract to supply this technology to fueling retailers in the Middle East, and we are currently rolling this out. We have a strong pipeline of iNFX-based flexible retail solutions, which continues to build. We're currently in late-stage pilots with several leading retailers in North America. Customer interest in these pilots is strong and extends beyond our initial focus on payment to incorporate loyalty programs and site management applications. We are encouraged by our growing pipeline of opportunities. Pillar three is focused on pursuing opportunities that expand into adjacent markets with solutions leveraging new and existing offerings. We recently received our first sizable order for our new turnkey EV charging solution, Konect, which is targeted at supporting our large installed base of C-store customers. The pipeline is growing rapidly. The build-out of our EV charging infrastructure continues to accelerate, particularly across Europe.
We continue to convert charge point operators to our Driivz platform. Through the first half of 2024, we've doubled our ports under management year-over-year to over 85,000, and we're well on track to achieve over 100,000 ports under management by year-end. Although we are seeing some near-term weakness in our markets, we're well positioned in durable, attractive end markets with long-term profitable growth opportunities. Our leading market share positions, business simplification opportunities, and cash generation profile are bolstering our position, and we expect to capture even greater operating leverage as demand accelerates. With that, let me turn the call over to Anshooman Aga to walk you through the details of the quarter and our updated outlook.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll start off with a summary of our consolidated results for the quarter on slide 5. For the second quarter, we reported $696 million in total sales, for a core decline of approximately 3%. As Mark noted, sales were impacted by order timing at our Environmental and Fueling Solutions segment and our alternative energy business, as well as lower discretionary spend impacting Repair Solutions. Book-to-bill was above 1 in all three of our segments, with each reporting low single-digit order growth year-over-year. Adjusted operating profit margin declined by approximately 60 basis points year-over-year, as contributions from positive price, cost, and productivity were more than offset by lower volume. This resulted in adjusted EPS of $0.63 for the quarter.
Adjusted free cash flow was $26 million, reflecting higher inventory due to the shipment delays and unfavorable linearity of revenue. Turning to our segment results, starting on slide 6. Environmental and Fueling Solutions core sales declined 5% year-over-year. Shipment delays negatively impacted sales by approximately $30 million, with over half recovered in July. Dispenser sales declined compared to the prior year. Large convenience store operators are prioritizing new build projects, which have longer construction cycles. Some of this is at the expense of shorter-term refresh and retrofit projects, which is temporarily impacting volume growth both in the quarter and second half of the year. Aftermarket parts sales increased high teens in the quarter. We continue to leverage a large and expanding installed base and focus on high-value components, accelerating growth in this high-margin offering.
Sales of environmental solutions also grew during the quarter, with low double-digit order growth benefiting from global regulatory tailwinds. Segment operating profit margins expanded 60 basis points, as we were able to offset lower volumes with positive price cost, strong supply chain management, and operational productivity. Turning to slide seven. Mobility Technologies core sales increased 1% in the quarter, driven by strong demand for payment and enterprise productivity solutions in the convenience retail market, offset by ongoing weakness in our car wash business. Invenco delivered another strong quarter, reporting low double-digit sales growth. Orders were up nearly 20% for the second consecutive quarter. Sales for alternative energy solutions declined mid-single digits, as $6 million of shipments pushed from June and was recovered in July. Demand for our compressed and renewable natural gas solutions remains robust, with orders up 20% in Q2.
We expect this business to return to mid-teens growth in the second half and deliver low double-digit growth for the full year. Sales at our car wash technologies business, DRB, declined mid-teens in the quarter, largely as anticipated, driven by continued lower demand in our point-of-sale and control systems tied to new tunnel car wash sites. This was partially offset by low double-digit growth in recurring revenue, led by strength in service and aftermarket. Our DRB project pipeline continues to push to the right, given prolonged higher interest rates. Notably, our backlog for 2025 continues to build, exceeding our level for the back half of this year. Segment operating profit margin was down approximately 140 basis points versus the prior year, due primarily to unfavorable mix and ongoing R&D investments at Invenco. Finally, on Slide 8.
Repair Solutions core sales declined 5% in the quarter. There was a meaningful pullback in service techs discretionary spend in the month of June. As an example, tool storage sales declined just over 25% in the month. Sales within diagnostics were up low single digits, which is a testament to our new product vitality, with last year's Max 5 launch continuing to capture market share. Segment operating profit margin declined approximately 500 basis points, driven by lower volumes, as well as the timing of bad debt reserves year-over-year. Looking at our balance sheet and capital deployment on slide 9. During the quarter, we retired our 2024 maturity and ended the quarter with a net debt ratio of 2.7 times, in line with our target of 2.5-3 times.
We also completed approximately $38 million in share repurchases in the quarter and $60 million year to date. Our balance sheet is healthy, with strong liquidity, with over $300 million in cash on hand and an undrawn credit revolver. We continue to believe there is a significant valuation disconnect relative to our long-term growth, profitability, and cash generation potential. In the second half, we expect to deploy a significant amount of the free cash flow we generate to buybacks, including our near-term intent to enter into a $100 million accelerated share repurchase program. With that, let me provide an update on our thinking for the third quarter and full year. I'm on slide 10. We expect the macro environment to remain challenged near term amid continued uncertainty and consumer weakness, with higher rates and U.S. elections continuing to delay customer order decisions and discretionary spending.
We anticipate top-line performance to remain pressured under this scenario and now expect Q3 core growth to be in the range of -2% to +2%, with margin down 80 to 110 basis points, equating to EPS in the range of $0.67-$0.71. For the full year, we expect revenue in the range of $2.9 billion-$3 billion, which reflects a 1% core decline on the low end and approximately 3% growth on the high end. With more of our incremental cost actions to benefit the fourth quarter, we anticipate operating margin flat with the prior year to up 50 basis points. EPS would be in the range of $2.80-$3.00.
Recognizing this is below our prior guidance and with a wider range, we believe our current outlook reflects an appropriate level of conservativeness based on what we are seeing and hearing from customers and channel partners. We thought it would be helpful to provide more transparency into the moving pieces of the top-line guide. We've included slide 11 to help bridge you from the prior sales guidance midpoint to our updated 2024 midpoint of $2.95 billion. Operationally, we're lowering our second half outlook by $110 million, which we break down for you by segment on the slide. Turning to slide 12. We've bridged our EPS guidance in a similar manner... dropping through the $120 million reduction in revenue at a standard gross margin equates to an EPS decline of around $0.29.
The savings associated with our accelerated cost reductions equate to a $0.06 benefit. Collectively, a lower share count, lower interest, and lower tax and other expenses adds back another $0.05 for a net reduction of $0.18 versus our previous guidance midpoint. With that, I'd like to pass the call back over to Mark.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, Anshooman. We're continuing to transform our business. We're reshaping our portfolio and have executed a balanced capital allocation strategy at overall double-digit returns. With increasing software and aftermarket sales, we've increased our recurring revenue as a percentage of total sales by over 10 percentage points since spin. We are enabling the digital transformation of our customers. A great example of this is the traction we are seeing with our Invenco offerings in payments and enterprise productivity. As we connect, manage, and scale the mobility ecosystem, we expect our continued portfolio transformation will enable sustainable growth and allow us to deliver top-tier financial returns. Despite the slower-than-expected macro environment near term, we remain confident in our longer-term outlook. Our end markets are compelling, underpinned by durable secular drivers, and we're advantaged given our leading share positions and strong customer relationships. With that, operator, please turn the line over to questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press the star key, then one on your touch tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press the star key, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Maybe, just to start, so it looks like your guidance on the top line, I think it embeds sort of a, a mid-single-digit type, increase in, sequential sales, in the third quarter and, and the fourth quarter. So maybe just kind of help us understand, you know, which of the segments kind of leading or lagging those, sequential moves and the sort of confidence in that sequential pickup.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, Julian, maybe I'll get started. Yes, sequentially, revenue will increase from Q2 to Q3, and then again in Q4. Also, that's a little bit of a typical seasonality. When you look at revenue growth, we will have revenue growth in Mobility Technologies. Both, Invenco had strong orders in Q2, but they've been up close to 20% now, two quarters in a row, so we should see continued growth in our Invenco business. Also, ANGI, our alternative energies business, orders were up 20% in Q2. They did have $6 million of shipments that pushed out of June into July. So that business should have good high teens to mid-teens to high teens growth in the third quarter. Repair Solutions will probably be flat, maybe slightly down sequentially in Q3.
We continue to see that the US consumer is stretched. The higher interest rates, higher inflation is impacting technicians, even though technicians are at record employment, record wages. We've seen them scale back, and we ran, as part of our diligence, a survey with multiple, over 1,000 technicians and also with our franchisees, and that's also what we're hearing, that despite working the same or more amount of hours, despite wages being up, they are scaling back because of the high cost of living. And then the fueling business should also step up both in Q3 and Q4. Again, to spend a lot of time doing channel checks and voice of the customers. While some people are prioritizing new-to-industry and new-to-industry locations, both greenfield and brownfield continue at a high rate.
They have scaled back a little bit on their refresh and retrofit projects, but customer discussions have led to us believing in our guidance.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks very much. Then just my follow-up on the sort of, operating profit level. So, I think you're guiding sort of third quarter, you've got the margins down year-on-year, close to 100 basis points. Looks like the fourth quarter is back up year-on-year on the margin front, and with a pretty big sequential margin increase in Q4 as well. So I realize on the sequential side, there's some typical seasonality element there, but maybe just trying to understand, you know, it does look like that Q4 margin has a lot of tailwind sort of built into it in the guide. Maybe just flesh those out a bit, if it's simply volumes or anything else in there.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yes, Julian. So yes, volumes do step up from Q3 to Q4, which definitely helps, but also, the $12 million of incremental cost that we talked about in the prepared remarks, that's heavily weighted towards the fourth quarter, just from a timing perspective, so that definitely helps our Q4 margins. Sequentially, from Q2 to Q3, our margins will step up about 90 basis points, and then they step up again in Q4. Also from a compare perspective, Q3 last year was our highest margin quarter. So there is, Q3 is a tough year-on-year compare.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Morning, Joe.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, Mark, my apologies if I missed it in your prepared comments, but can you just double-click a little bit more on this, like, the timing of the order delays that impacted the quarter? You know, what exactly was going on there? And then you referenced this recovery of greater than $20 million in July. What's the expectation for the rest of the quarter? You expect—you're anticipating more recoveries going forward, and how do you expect to get that?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah, absolutely, happy to elaborate there, Joe. Look, there's no question we saw some uncertainty in some of the macro that affected some of our end markets late in the quarter. So essentially, this was at GVR, and it was also at Matco. And so let me kinda break it down for you. So inside GVR, we had, as you may remember, a very strong Q1, 10% organic growth. And when we rolled into April, and all of our... We're very close to our customers, so a lot of our channel checks and also working with our distributors who do construction in the industry, they were very busy, very significantly over year-over-year in terms of the construction and the build-out.
So we've seen actually a strengthening in the new construction, which is an appreciable, appreciable part of the convenience store market in North America, and that continues to build out, which is very good for the medium and longer term. But what's happening in the softness is there's uncertainty and sort of the pacing of the refresh retrofit market, not to be confused with maintenance, aftermarket parts, which is very much up. But these smaller projects, folks are, you know, pushing out a bit, and so it's really a pacing issue. And we were sort of wrong on that timing on the pacing that developed late in the quarter. So just on that point, what happened in July, it's just a rate issue. Those were all fulfilled in July, most of them, and a little bit now in August.
So what we're doing with our forecast is we're offering our more prudent outlook that I think is more responsible, given that order rate and timing, while we see the new construction build, and there's lots of opportunities for convenience store operators to continue there. On the Matco front, they came off a record expo in Q1. They were up low double digits. They saw kind of across the board, even high-ticket items were selling quite well. The new lots of diagnostics that and Anshooman made reference to, as well as toolboxes, which we watch very closely, was up 15% in Q1. Kinda heading into Q2 and kinda tailed off at the very end of the quarter, mostly on discretionary items that service technicians are not buying as much at a rate.
So June actually dropped off 25% on toolboxes, and so that is one of the areas where there's macro uncertainty that is impacting the consumer confidence, that service technicians are more on the, the medium to lower end of the income range in the United States, and they're being impacted by higher inflation costs. Certainly, the cost that is impacting the family is impacting them. But longer term, there's great drivers on Matco, and we're watching those as well. Vehicle miles traveled are up, also, the total age of the car park at 12.6 years. And we did a survey. We're very close to our customers there, but we also did a survey to help corroborate some of the information we get from our channel checks.
We know that service technicians are gonna buy less tools, but they're gonna preference productivity items. We saw actually diagnostics continue to increase in the quarter, and specialty tools also eked out a gain. So we know that even in this kind of backdrop, if you can offer more productivity offerings. But we've reflected more of this softness, more of this uncertainty. Once we get past the election on Matco, I think that's gonna be a relief, some of the uncertainty there. Certainly, interest rates are gonna help 'cause folks are living off some of their credit card expenses. So we, we think both these are near-term issues that we're reflecting with a prudent guide.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Thanks. Thanks, Mark. That was great and detailed. The one follow-up I would have for you is that, like, look, I think the market is hoping for a few rate cuts, potentially by year-end. I guess, as you kinda think about the sensitivity of your business to rates, and then ultimately, what that means for getting back to that 4%-6% organic growth range, is there any color that you can kinda give us on that specifically?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think there are certain elements of our business that are certainly impacted by rates, certainly Matco. The service technicians are linked to the U.S. consumer there. The uncertainty on rates, no question plays into it. We know that talking with our customers, and by the way, we're helping our- and working very closely with our customers as they roll out their projects. They're very confident in the new construction build-out. By the way, these are multi-year projects. This is not an industry that's over capacity. New venues work much better in the market. They tend to gain more consumers that come to their sites. And so there's very successful new build-out activity, and that continues to go at an enhanced rate. And there are good returns there.
But interest rates might be, you know, some of the apprehension in the market, anticipating rate cuts. If you're able to throttle maybe more of the smaller refresh retrofit ones, there's no question being affected by the timing, and that was something that we didn't foresee as much as maybe perhaps we should have, but I think we're, we're offering that in a prudent guide going forward.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
I'll also add that our DRB business is impacted by the higher interest rates from a new build perspective. The economics of the car wash are impacted by the higher interest rates, and the pipeline of projects remains strong. People are really interested in this, and we're also starting to see some of this where the backlog for 2025 is already higher for DRB new systems versus the back half of this year, with the expectations that interest rates are going to start coming down next year.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
You know, one thing, Joe, that's encouraging for us is when we are able to compare ourselves to industry benchmarks that are out there, whether it be on Matco, where we think we have very favorable compares, where we're gaining share. Also on GVR, year to date, we feel like our leadership position here will come our way, particularly 'cause we are much better positioned in the major players out there in the marketplace, and they're continuing to build out that strength there, bodes well for growth. And so we're very encouraged by that, and we think we're also able to demonstrate coming into this mid part of the year, that we're, we're gaining share in environmental, which is some pretty obvious compares there. And environmental is early innings on a tank upgrade cycle, and we're looking at good growth at the back end of this year.
So we also have some product launches that are coming that we're gaining traction on in Invenco. So that business is doing much better than it did in prior years, and it's actually posting double-digit growth, and we feel very encouraged by that build-out of that pipeline. So lots of things where our strategy is intact and we feel very encouraged by, but this soft sort of spot in the market and the pacing of the market, we're reflecting in our guidance.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Perfect. Thank you, guys.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, Joe.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Speaker 10
Hey, good morning, guys. It's actually Jose here on for Andy.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Good morning, Jose.
Speaker 10
Hi. So for my first question, from your updated sales guidance, it seems like you're expecting mobility to be kind of in the high, low, single digit, low, mid single digit range for the year, despite DRB sounding like it went more or less as you expected. When do you see mobility revenues really begin to inflect back to your longer term high single digit range? Could you talk about the path you're seeing there?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think where we see that's quite encouraging, Jose, is around the pipeline of activity, particularly around Invenco. We have this new payment kit called FlexPay 6, that we talked about. It's building strength in the market, and we are very encouraged by the uptake there. iNFX, which is being piloted with a number of larger customers, is also making great progress. And we have enterprise productivity that also includes this, what we could reference also in the earnings call, called VIS. And so that business, we think, demonstrates a really good growth driver in mobility technology. The other thing is that in DRB, you know, the backlog there is certainly being impacted by pushouts in the interest rate environment, but there's not building of inventory in the channels.
We're able to take advantage of a lower interest rate environment fairly quickly in that business, and it's a leadership position where we're launching new products this year, both to build out Patheon as well as a recent announcement of a, a product line called Catalyst, that helps businesses be more productive in car wash. So that business is a great business. It's just gonna take a step back from a very strong 25% growth rate that we've seen in the last couple of years, but it's a little bit of a digestion period with lower interest rates. So we feel Mobility Technologies platform is, is great.
If you look at the last couple of years, it's been making significant progress building out that platform, and it's not gonna grow as much as we anticipate in the near term, but we do anticipate it coming back to growth based on the strategy that's in place.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
I'll just add that if you look at that mobility technology business, the businesses in that segment are on track with our longer term projections, except for DRB, which this year is holding back the growth. DRB, you know, going into next year will be an easier compare, at least for the three first, last three quarters of the year. So that should inflect back to a growth next year. And DRB, yes, it stepped back this year, but it's still a great business and a good acquisition. When you think about it, cumulative, for the time we've owned it, it's about $50 million-$60 million above from operating a profit perspective to our acquisition case, and it's still tracking at or slightly above our acquisition case this year.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah, Jose, one other piece of that platform I'd like to highlight. It is a smaller piece, but it's made really good progress, and we're pretty confident in it. It's, it's ANGI. This is the compressed natural gas, renewable natural gas, also, layering in some hydrogen orders and shipments there because we've launched that product line. That business, if you look back a couple of years ago, is $50 million. It's gonna be more than $100 million this year...and it's a, a longer cycle business, so we're almost fully booked for the year. We're fully booked for Q3, and that business has been digesting a very strong growth rate of over 30% growth. So for us, that's managing a growth business. There's a bit of order timing in the quarter, but when you look at Q3, we're fully booked.
We're clearly deploying VBS there, with our growth capacity that needs to be put in place. But compressed natural gas, renewable natural gas, and a couple orders now coming in on hydrogen, meaning hydrogen is longer term, but a great position. But clearly, what we see here is a very good build-out and uptake from customers and just ramping that growth.
Speaker 10
Got it. Appreciate the color there. As a follow-up, I saw in one of the slides you called out high growth in recurring revenue in the quarter for DRB. Could you take a moment and fill us in on where you're at in terms of recurring revenue now for the company? You guided 30%-35% by 2026. I would surmise that recurring revenue is still very important to Vontier, not to mention it's usually higher margin. So-
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Speaker 10
A, are you on track on the near term?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
I'm sorry, Jose, cut you out there at the end. Can you repeat the end?
Speaker 10
Oh, yeah, sure. I was just saying. No worries. I was just saying, are you still on track for that in the near term, and is that 30%-35% still the right estimate to think about?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah. So, I'll add some color and see if Anshooman also wants to jump in. If you look back at our portfolio since then, the recurring revenue is up about 10 points. And what's really important there is not only did we shed some of the business that, you know, the power equipment business, as an example, not a lot of recurring revenue in it. So about $150 million of shedding of those type portfolio assets. But we've also built our SaaS businesses are certainly growing. You know, the ones that we just talked about here in iNFX, which has a very strong pipeline and build-out inside of our Invenco business, is a clear example. Teletrac Navman is certainly doing better.
And inside of DRB, which is specifically, if you ask that color, we've been in the process of launching our new Patheon product, which is fundamentally turning that into a SaaS-based recurring revenue. And we have more than 1,000 software engineers in our business now, which is a big departure from where we were a couple of years ago. So we're pretty encouraged on that. I will also say the aftermarket parts business in GVR has been a big focus, and that had 20% growth last quarter. There was some inventory channel issues in the prior quarter, but this has been a major initiative for us to really attack the aftermarket much more concerted in the GVR business.
And, you know, we're benefiting from a larger installed base there, based on the build-out, which is clearly advantaged here. But we also have new programs like refurbishment of electronics, and we're also penetrating new distribution territories. So we have a very focused management team on aftermarket, and it's percent of our sales for GVR. That's definitely on an upswing, and we see real life there as well. And Anshooman, did you want to add any color?
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, I'd just add that we're definitely on track for our 2026 targets that we put out at Investor Day from a recurring revenue perspective. You know, as we innovate and we drive productivity for our customers, that also leads to higher recurring revenue. Simple example is over-the-air updates with FlexPay 6. So that really is a big driver of productivity for our customers, but also a good source of recurring revenue in the future. iNFX has recurring revenue, so we're well on track, and we're making good progress, and recurring revenue continues to grow.
Speaker 10
Got it. Thanks for the time, guys. Appreciate the detail.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks for that.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Hope all is well. Thanks for the question. Just a couple of quick ones on some of the details, and I apologize if you already covered these. On the environmental delays, and I understand you've recovered some of those in 3Q. Was weather a factor there? Was it labor availability? Maybe just some comments on that. And then on Matco margins, I think you mentioned timing of reserves, but I'm just wondering how the credit quality is tracking at Matco and whether some of the declines you're seeing is it demand-driven, or maybe you're being a bit more selective, perhaps with in light of credit quality? So any comments there would be helpful as well.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah. So let me comment on the first one. The weather actually did impact ANGI in the quarter. We're pretty constrained with the capacity for growth there, so we're constantly pushing on growth. So we got back-end loaded, and unfortunately had six tornadoes in Janesville, Wisconsin, that where we have our manufacturing facility there. Thankfully, nobody got hurt, but it took labor out of our equation for the last week of the quarter. We're using more VBS to pull in that capacity more, and we're exercising more outsourcing so that we don't get as back-end loaded and not subject to that. So we're pretty happy on that activity, but unfortunately, was susceptible to that. And then on the Matco side- we really see a volume here and more bad debt coming through back to maybe more some of the lows we've seen historically.
But just overall, the margins are holding up quite well inside Matco. There's no question there's been some discounting, but we're also going back to our supply chain, and we're getting to more cost out of our supply chain accordingly. Did you wanna add anything there, Anshooman?
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. On a couple of your other parts of your questions, from a GVR or environmental and fueling perspective, it wasn't tied to weather or labor constraints. It was just as we mentioned on the prepared remarks, we had order timing slip out as some of our larger customers have prioritized due to industry greenfield, brownfield projects. It's at the expense of retrofit and refresh projects, and these shorter-term projects slipped out from a timing perspective. And then on Matco margins, yes, we are impacted by bad debt reserves. And, you know, as I've said in the past, our write-offs have typically created in a somewhat narrow band. And, post-COVID, when there was a lot of money flushed into the economy, we were actually trading at the low end of the band.
Last year, we kind of moved to the mid part of the band that we trade in, and now we're at the high end of the band that we've typically had from a write-offs perspective. We're averaging about $2 million of higher write-offs a quarter versus last year. It really started turning towards Q4 last year, but we did see a step up this year, and that overall credit quality is pretty good. Over the last couple of years, we've been working to move up the credit quality. When we look at 60-day past due balances, they are up versus what they were a year or two ago, but they're still below the credit card industry average, which has traded up to about 2.6 times, and a 12-year high for the credit card industry.
So we are trading below that from a 60-day past due, and that's something we continue to manage. The yields on the portfolio are pretty healthy. We yield about 20%, interest on the portfolio, so it's still a profitable piece of our portfolio.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks, Anshooman. That's, that's great color. And then just a quick one on the ASR, the $100 million. Any sense on, you know, when you might pull the trigger on that?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Well, our intent is to go forward, obviously, in the near term, otherwise we wouldn't be talking about it. We believe that this is the right way to deploy capital with a good return backdrop for it. So, we're confident that's the right positioning that will take advantage of this near-term softening.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
And Nigel?
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Go ahead.
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
We have to wait for the trading window to also open.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Right. Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Again, if you have a question, please press the star key, then one. The next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Ridley-Lane (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, this is, David Ridley-Lane for Andrew Obin. You know, very much appreciate the, the transparency here. Just a clarification question. You know, on the $12 million of in-year savings on this, restructuring actions, you know, about what portion is sort of temporary versus structural? And what I'm really trying to get at is, what do you think is the full year savings in 2025?
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. About 2/3 of those savings are structural and permanent, and then there's some temporary savings in there, obviously.
David Ridley-Lane (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. And then, just to check back up on sort of the pipeline of Invenco prospects, how those pilot projects are progressing. Thank you.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah, David, they're progressing quite well. It's something we're pretty close to. They're large players that see not only the advantages in payment, but also in some of their enterprise productivity, more of a site management capability that incorporates loyalty into that as well. So we're really happy with the progress we're making on Invenco. I think it's a great platform with fitting the needs that the market really has right now. So I don't think we're coming up with technology that is needed, you know, that is out there, that is sort of pie in the sky. This is absolutely solving their high-value problems of running their enterprises better. And so, hopefully, we'll be able to update you with that with some press releases here.
David Ridley-Lane (Equity Research Analyst)
Excellent. Thank you.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, David.
Operator (participant)
Next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
Hi, thank you. My question's on DRB. I think you made the comment, return to growth in 2025, and, and I recall you mentioned earlier in the call about backlog being up. Can you remind us the size of the backlog, roughly the sales in that type of business? And I know it depends, you know, if projects being delayed, maybe it's higher than normal, but just trying to get a comfort level with 2025 returns to growth, in part on the backlog while, of course, I appreciate if rates get lowered, you know, hopefully it, it releases a few projects to get going. But can you help us a bit with the backlog comment?
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So really, if you look at the backlog, there are two pieces to the backlog. One is the recurring revenue piece of the backlog, where we basically, for at least a lot of the long-term service agreements and software support agreements, we have 12 months that we put in backlog, and that part of the business remains strong. The recurring revenue grew low double digits again in this quarter, so that business is still growing. Now, from the new systems perspective, this is a shorter book-and-turn kind of a business for us, but we have about 20% of the new systems revenue for next year, I would say, in backlog already.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
All right. That's, that's helpful. And rates coming down, in your mind, is that simply the projects that have been pushed to the right, or, you know, just to get across the finish line to go ahead and execute the project? Or do you also foresee from conversations in the channel, as rates come down, we go back to private equity, consolidating the industry, helping your cause for, you know, more professional scaled car washes?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah. So the backdrop on rates coming down is clearly causes some uncertainty. If you, if you step back and sort of understand the trend that has occurred here, and we have a leadership position, the industry is being built out, but also consolidating. And, you know, the—as you mentioned here, David, that it's clearly being impacted, why would people go forward at that same rate or pace, particularly with, you know, rates beginning to come down sometime here in the future? And so what we believe happens as the interest rates, you know, improve, is that there's also... that industry will consolidate. Maybe not the same rate of build out of new sites as it did, 'cause that was pretty frothy.
In fact, that was something we didn't anticipate how frothy it would get, but we think that it will go back to kind of a normal growth rate. Also, the industry consolidation benefits us. We have the leading point-of-sale system out there with all the major players, and as they buy out, smaller players are gonna wanna consolidate this 'cause they're looking at better productivity. The key that this softness in the market has really shown in the car wash industry, is that the benefit accrues to the folks that run a good car wash, 'cause it can make a big difference on how much cash flow you generate in a year if you operate a good car wash.
You're gonna wanna consolidate your platform, you're gonna want better productivity, and this comes our way 'cause we're the leader in the industry, and we have the tools that enable them to do that.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, David.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Robert Mason with Baird. Please go ahead.
Robert Mason (Senior Research Analyst)
Yes, good morning. It's Rob Mason with Baird. Again, appreciate the added detail, it's helpful. Just some of the bridge on your sales guidance. I just wanted to be clear, in Mobility Technologies, you seem to be apportioning all of the delta in outlook to DRB. I just wanted to make sure that was the case, and is that a kind of a net outlook? Had you made any changes to any of the other businesses? It even sound like, you know, in Invenco, I'm not sure if it's trending better than expected or not, but, you know, some positive commentary there. So is all of the change just within DRB?
Anshooman Aga (SVP and CFO)
Rob, that's correct. All the changes in DRB. The other businesses are tracking as expected. Invenco should be up high single digits this year. Our ANGI business should be up low double digits. EVolve continues to grow at a pretty good clip rate, and then Teletrac business, the turnaround continues to progress well, and they should be up low single digits this year. So all the other businesses are tracking as expected.
Robert Mason (Senior Research Analyst)
And then, just within Matco, I think you also commented just, franchisee growth was flat sequentially. How is the backdrop impacting your ability to bring on new franchisees as well? Any impact there and what the expectations are, you know, for the year on that component?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Yeah, Rob. What we've done with our approach on franchisees and, and you know, really the end of last quarter into this quarter, is we started to make a more discerning look that if franchisees were not contributing as much in sort of the lower end, that we were actually gonna focus more on taking them out of the network. We've had more of a fresh approach on how we attract folks in this market. I think there's no question that there's a little bit of trepidation with folks stepping into a new business with some of this interest rate, macro uncertainty, that we hope will clear up post-election, regardless of who gets elected.
We do feel like we have a new program underway for the back half of this year that we can hopefully gain traction with, and hopefully we'll get the benefits of some improving interest rates and some clear up on the election uncertainty.
Robert Mason (Senior Research Analyst)
Does that, does that result in net growth this year, Mark, in franchising year-over-year for the full year, or where do we end up?
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
We're looking at growth in the second half of the year. In terms of how that grows out, you know, Q1 was down, we're flat in Q2. So in terms of its total netting out, the positive growth, not quite sure, but it's definitely a flattish outlook for full year. What that means, there's recovery in second half on franchisees.
Robert Mason (Senior Research Analyst)
I see. Okay. Thank you.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, Rob.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mark for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Mark Morelli (President and CEO)
Thanks, Kenneth. We continue to make solid progress in delivering differentiated solutions for our customers as they expand, modernize, and decarbonize their footprint. Vontier has a unique competitive advantage within the mobility ecosystem. It is purpose-built, and it is a portfolio of connected hardware and software solutions. We call this our Connected Mobility strategy, and it places us at the forefront of our customers' digital transformation, and it also supports their multi-energy infrastructure needs. Finally, I do wanna make comment that we continue to allocate capital in a responsible way, favoring high return options that deliver value to our shareholders. I, I'd be remiss without talking about the efforts of our teams across the world.
I'd like to extend a thanks to our teams as their dedication and their focus on delivering on customers and their incredible efforts to incredibly improve our business, as well as it's important to recognize their hard work every day. With that, we appreciate your continued interest in Vontier. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.