Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Growth in Subscription Revenue Driven by Investments and Customer Engagement: Verisk expects continued strength in subscription revenue, historically making up 80% of total revenue, driven by investments in products, customer engagement, and industry expertise, enhancing renewals, attracting new customers, and enabling better pricing.
- Financial Strength of Clients Leading to Increased Demand: The Property & Casualty insurance industry is experiencing strong premium growth and improving profitability, making clients more engaged in investing to improve their business. This benefits Verisk through increased demand for its solutions and participation in clients' premium growth.
- Leveraging Advanced Technologies and Product Enhancements for Future Growth: Verisk is capitalizing on Generative AI and launched Next Generation Models in their extreme events business. These advancements represent major enhancements, enabling clients to better estimate and quantify uncertainties in losses, and position Verisk for future growth.
- Transactional revenue is expected to face headwinds due to tough comparisons from last year's strong performance, particularly in auto transactional shopping activity and elevated weather patterns, potentially leading to slower growth in the upcoming quarters.
- Subscription revenue growth has decelerated from 9% in the early part of last year to 7%-8% over the past two quarters, with potential headwinds including attrition and industry consolidation.
- The normalization of the market may result in future pressure on margins, which could negatively impact subscription and transactional revenue growth as the industry adjusts to a more stable pricing environment.
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P&C Industry Outlook
Q: How is the P&C insurance industry's health impacting Verisk?
A: The property and casualty insurance industry is showing strong premium growth and improved profitability, resulting in stronger combined ratios. This positive outlook benefits Verisk, as they participate in clients' premium growth and see insurers more engaged in investing to improve their business. -
Subscription Revenue Growth
Q: Is current subscription growth sustainable this year?
A: Subscription growth is strong and broad-based, driven by forms, rules, and loss cost, antifraud solutions, and extreme events. Verisk expects no significant changes and sees no major quarterly variations ahead. -
Pricing Environment
Q: How do you view the pricing environment this year?
A: Verisk sees positive tailwinds in pricing tied to net written premium growth, in line with last year. The industry's financial strength makes clients more receptive, aiding in good pricing outcomes. -
New Solutions and GenAI Adoption
Q: Which new solutions are gaining traction?
A: Verisk is seeing strong adoption of new products like Discovery Navigator in claims, image forensics in antifraud, Core Lines Reimagine, and Next Generation Models in extreme events. These innovations are contributing to incremental revenue growth incorporated into their guidance. -
Auto Telematics Discontinuation
Q: Why discontinue the auto telematics offering?
A: Data providers ceased collecting data, leaving insufficient analytical value. The financial impact is small, and Verisk continues to serve auto insurers significantly with other products like LightSpeed auto, coverage verifier, and damage assessment. -
Catastrophe Bond Business
Q: What's driving growth in the catastrophe bond market?
A: Increased catastrophe risk and the need for diversifying investors are driving the strong cat bond market. Verisk benefits by providing models and risk assessments through their extreme event business. -
Transactional Revenue Outlook
Q: Are transactional revenues facing headwinds?
A: Yes, due to tough comparisons from last year's strong growth in areas like auto shopping activity, elevated weather patterns, and securitization activity. These create headwinds for transactional revenue in coming quarters. -
Investment Levels in AI and Platforms
Q: How are internal investments affecting CapEx?
A: Investments in AI and replatforming are within expectations and embedded in guidance. Some projects are finite, so investment levels may reduce after completion. Verisk is integrating generative AI into existing products using current financial models. -
Capital Allocation and M&A
Q: What's the outlook for small-to-medium M&A?
A: Valuations remain high, making attractive returns challenging. Verisk focuses on opportunities where they can add value and accelerate adoption but remains disciplined in capital allocation. -
Next-Generation Nat Peril Model
Q: What's the impact of the new nat peril model?
A: The Next Generation Models are major enhancements, allowing clients to better estimate and quantify uncertainty of losses. It's a substantial opportunity to deliver more value, and expectations are reflected in guidance.
Research analysts covering Verisk Analytics.