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Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered solid top-line and margin performance: revenue $0.753B (+7.0% YoY; +7.9% OCC), adjusted EBITDA $0.417B (+9.5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin 55.3% (+130 bps YoY) .
- Verisk modestly beat Wall Street consensus on revenue and EPS; revenue $753M vs $749.8M consensus*, adjusted EPS $1.73 vs primary EPS consensus $1.683* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Guidance reiterated for FY 2025 (revenue $3.03–$3.08B; adj. EBITDA $1.67–$1.72B; adj. EPS $6.80–$7.10; margin 55.0%–55.8%), signaling confidence in durability and pricing realization .
- Call emphasized subscription growth (83% of revenue; +10.6% OCC), pricing/value capture in Forms/Rules/Loss Costs, and ecosystem connectivity across underwriting and claims, supporting multi-year margin profile .
- Catalysts: sustained subscription strength, margin discipline, product innovations (Core Lines Reimagined, Synergy Studio), and regulatory traction (California wildfire model) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- “Delivered broad-based top line growth across underwriting and claims and healthy profit growth” (CEO) with OCC revenue +7.9% and OCC adj. EBITDA +9.5% .
- Subscription mix and momentum: subscriptions 83% of revenue; subscription OCC +10.6%; strong price realization and renewals in Forms/Rules/Loss Costs and high single-digit subscription growth in Extreme Event Solutions (EES) .
- Capital return and balance sheet strength: $391M FCF (+23.3% YoY), $0.45 dividend; $200M ASR completed; $1.4B repurchase authorization remaining .
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What Went Wrong
- Transactional revenue declined 4% OCC, reflecting conversions to subscriptions, soft personal auto transactional activity, and lower service revenues in certain software businesses .
- Higher interest expense and tax rate headwinds: net interest expense $36M (vs $29M prior year) and effective tax rate 21.6% (vs 20.3%), tempering EPS flow-through .
- Marketing Solutions weakness outside insurance (financial services and mortgage segments facing macro headwinds), with potential pressure if discretionary spend slows .
Financial Results
Segment revenue breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “2025 is off to a solid start… delivered broad-based top line growth across underwriting and claims and healthy profit growth… focused on supporting clients with insights and solutions that drive efficiency and automation” .
- CFO: “OCC revenue growth of 7.9% and OCC adjusted EBITDA growth of 9.5%… returned over $250 million to shareholders… reiterating our financial guidance for 2025” .
- Go-to-market progress and innovation: extended improved sales model to broader businesses; launching cloud-native Verisk Synergy Studio in 2026 to connect catastrophe models and act as an ecosystem hub .
- Subscription and pricing: “Subscription revenues comprised 83%… grew 10.6% OCC… strong price realization in renewals… converting transactional clients to committed subscriptions” .
Q&A Highlights
- Marketing Solutions: Insurance client demand healthy; non-insurance segments (financial services/mortgage) facing headwinds; potential pressure if discretionary spend weakens .
- Margins: Expansion aided by sales leverage, expense timing, and cost discipline; PES saw modest high-margin storm tailwind; investment intensity balances margin trajectory .
- Pricing realization: Value-based pricing across Forms/Rules/Loss Costs and EES; multi-year contracts support gradual, sustained pricing benefits .
- Macro/tariffs: Limited direct exposure; focus on analytics to help clients measure potential tariff impacts on claims costs .
- Transactional trends: Decline due to conversions, soft personal auto, lumpy services; discrete contract conversion impact (200–250 bps) in Q1; storm-related transactional tail modest and normalized .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Modest beat on revenue and EPS supports guidance reiteration; estimate revisions likely minor and focused on margin assumptions given stronger mix and price realization .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Subscription-driven model momentum (83% of revenue, +10.6% OCC) and pricing/value capture underpin visibility in growth and margins; transactional headwinds manageable due to conversions and product mix .
- Margin discipline continues (55.3% adj. EBITDA margin; +130 bps YoY), aided by sales leverage and cost optimization, while funding innovation for future growth .
- Guidance unchanged across all metrics signals confidence; near-term catalysts include continued EES renewal strength and Core Lines Reimagined module rollouts .
- Capital returns remain robust (FCF $391M, dividend $0.45, ASR completed; $1.4B authorization remaining), supported by balance sheet flexibility .
- Macro watch: tariffs could pressure claims costs; Verisk’s analytics help carriers measure and mitigate; direct Verisk exposure limited .
- Regulatory traction: California wildfire model engagement positions Verisk as a strategic partner in ratemaking modernization; long-term demand tailwind .
- Trading lens: modest beat and reiterated guide with durable subscription growth and margin expansion supports constructive near-term sentiment; watch for sustained pricing realization and ecosystem product uptake in coming quarters .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q1 2025)
- Verisk Wildfire Model is the First Catastrophe Model Under Review for Ratemaking in California (Jan 2, 2025) .
- One Inc partners with Verisk; EagleView and Verisk collaborate to streamline property insurance workflows (Feb 3, 2025) .
- To Combat Mounting Cargo Theft, Verisk Launches CargoNet® RoadMap (Jan 23, 2025) .
- Verisk Estimates Industry Insured Losses for the Palisades and Eaton Earthquakes (Jan 22, 2025) .
Prior Two Quarters (for trend)
- Q4 2024: Revenue $736M (+8.6%), adj. EBITDA $398M (+9.9%), adj. EBITDA margin 54.1%, adj. EPS $1.61; subscriptions 82% with +11% OCC; guidance initiated for FY25 (same ranges as reiterated) .
- Q3 2024: Revenue $725M (+7.0%), adj. EBITDA $401M (+9.4%), adj. EBITDA margin 55.2%, adj. EPS $1.67; subscriptions 82% with +9.1% OCC; strong EES sales (10 new clients) .