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    Verisk Analytics (VRSK)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 26, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$299.72Last close (Feb 25, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$263.97Open (Feb 26, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-35.75(-11.93%)
    • Verisk's subscription revenues have shown strong growth, with organic constant currency growth accelerating every quarter of 2024 and exiting at 11%, providing a strong launching point for 2025. The company is excited about pricing realization and client recognition, indicating sustained momentum.
    • Approximately 20%-25% of Verisk's revenues come from contracts with direct input of premium growth with a 2-year lag, and with strong premium growth in recent years, the company expects continued pricing contributions in 2025. This suggests sustained revenue growth supported by positive pricing dynamics.
    • Verisk achieved double-digit free cash flow growth in 2024 and expressed confidence in continued free cash flow growth in 2025, evidenced by a dividend increase. This reflects strong cash flow generation and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
    • Higher interest expenses due to rising interest rates and refinancing needs could pressure earnings. Elizabeth Mann noted increased interest expenses: "So that's -- those are some of the headwinds there that we face as with others in a rising rate environment."
    • Potential customer attrition in California may negatively impact revenue growth. Elizabeth Mann mentioned monitoring attrition if customers pull back in California: "Including potentially if there's customers that temporarily pull back in California, that could potentially have a short-term attrition impact."
    • Increased capital and operational expenditures may impact free cash flow. CapEx is guided to increase by 15% year-over-year in 2025, and significant investment is taking place in OpEx: "There's also quite a bit of investment that's taking place also in our OpEx space as well."
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +8.7% YoY

    Total revenue increased from $677.2M in Q4 2023 to $735.6M in Q4 2024 as a result of broad-based growth in high-margin subscription solutions and strengthened underwriting and claims segments; this builds on the previous period’s gains which were driven by similar revenue mix improvements.

    Operating Income

    +26.7% YoY

    Operating income improved from $250.5M to $316.3M, benefiting from disciplined cost management and operational leverage that allowed expenses to grow at a slower pace than revenues, thereby boosting margins relative to the prior period’s performance.

    Net Income

    +21% YoY

    Net income increased from $173.8M to $210.4M due to revenue growth combined with lower operating expenses and the elimination of items such as the prior litigation reserve expense, which, together with a favorable effective tax rate, positively impacted the bottom line compared to Q4 2023.

    Basic Earnings Per Share

    +25% YoY

    Basic EPS rose from $1.20 to $1.50, reflecting the increase in net income and a reduction in the weighted average shares outstanding—largely driven by accelerated share repurchase programs—which amplified the per-share gains from the company’s improved profitability.

    U.S. Revenue

    +8.8% YoY

    U.S. revenue grew from $558.2M to $607.3M, driven by robust performance in subscription solutions and enhancements in auto, underwriting, and claims services; this is consistent with the previous trend of leveraging innovative solutions to solidify market position.

    U.K. Revenue

    +17% YoY

    U.K. revenue increased from $49.7M to $58.2M, reflecting a significant improvement likely due to strategic focus on high-growth insurance segments—possibly after divestitures or asset realignment in previous periods—which boosted underwriting and claims performance in the region.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $6.30 to $6.60

    $6.80 to $7.10

    raised

    Consolidated Revenue

    FY 2025

    $2.84 billion to $2.9 billion

    $3.03 billion to $3.08 billion

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $1.55 billion to $1.6 billion

    $1.67 billion to $1.72 billion

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin

    FY 2025

    54% to 55%

    55% to 55.8%

    raised

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $245 million to $265 million

    no prior guidance

    Depreciation and Amortization of Fixed Assets

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $250 million to $270 million

    no prior guidance

    Amortization of Intangibles

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    approximately $65 million

    no prior guidance

    Interest Expense

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $145 million to $165 million

    no prior guidance

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    23% to 25%

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Consolidated Revenue
    FY 2024
    $2.84B to $2.90B
    $2.88B = 704.0+ 716.8+ 725.3+ 735.6
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Subscription Revenue Growth

    Q1: 7.8% OCC growth driven by renewals and new solution sales. Q2: 8.3% OCC growth noted with deceleration concerns partly due to the shift from transactional models.

    Q4: 11% OCC growth driven by strong conversion of transactional contracts and technical factors, bolstering the outlook.

    Upward momentum with improved performance and confidence in growth; acceleration from previous periods.

    Transition from Transactional to Subscription-Based Models

    Q1: Notable conversion in the anti-fraud business with most shifts already completed, supporting subscription revenue. Q2: Broad-based conversion providing more predictable revenue, though transactional revenues showed decline.

    Q4: Continued rigorous conversion with transactional revenue declining 1.1% and subscriptions now comprising 82% of total revenue, reinforcing the long‐term model.

    Strengthening structural shift toward subscriptions evident across periods.

    Pricing Realization and Premium Growth Contract Contributions

    Q1: Strong renewals and improved pricing outcomes were highlighted, supporting subscription growth. Q2: Emphasis on strong price realization driven by product innovations such as the “Reimagine” initiative and the early stages of the Experience Index rollout.

    Q4: Value-driven price increases were emphasized through core initiatives and structural changes, with premium growth contracts continuing to contribute significantly.

    Ongoing improvement in pricing strategies with a clear trend toward value-based price realization.

    Free Cash Flow Generation, Dividend Increases, and CapEx/OpEx Pressures

    Q1: Free cash flow increased by 4.2% with a 15% elevated dividend, indicating steady performance despite legacy adjustments. Q2: No specific mention in the available details.

    Q4: Achieved double‐digit FCF growth (11%), with a 15% dividend increase and anticipation of a 15% year‐on‐year rise in CapEx for 2025, highlighting strong cash flow alongside investment pressures.

    Enhanced cash generation and shareholder returns, with increased investment pressure moving forward.

    Market Conditions and Insurance Cycle Impacts

    Q1: Described a strong P&C environment featuring robust premium growth and a hard market, despite volatility from catastrophic losses. Q2: Noted a hard market marked by strong premium growth but also underscored property headwinds due to catastrophic events.

    Q4: Continued strong premium growth with the introduction of proactive wildfire models and adjustments for regional challenges, such as California wildfires and hurricane impacts.

    Stable industry fundamentals with evolving regional risks; consistent strength with nuanced headwinds.

    Technological Innovation and Product Enhancements

    Q1: Focused on generative AI pilots, launch of Next Generation Models (NGM), and the debut of the ISO Experience Index as part of an integrated digital strategy. Q2: Emphasized further rollout of the ISO Experience Index, new product updates (e.g. roof analytics) and a stronger focus on generative AI-driven solutions.

    Q4: Continued innovation with a global suite of next-generation models in Extreme Events, plans for expanding the ISO Experience Index across commercial lines, and digital delivery enhancements through Future of Forms initiatives.

    Sustained commitment to technology with expanding innovation initiatives that build on previous progress.

    Strategic M&A and Targeted Capital Deployment

    Q1: Actively pursued small-to-medium M&A opportunities despite high valuations; executed capital return via a $200 million accelerated share repurchase and 15% dividend increase. Q2: Continued focus on M&A opportunities that complement existing capabilities alongside disciplined capital deployment, supported by significant cash and repurchase authorizations.

    Q4: Maintained a robust M&A pipeline with strategic evaluations in a high-value market, while returning capital through share repurchases and a 15% dividend increase, reinforcing disciplined capital allocation.

    Consistent strategic focus with capital returns and measured M&A activities sustained over time.

    Customer Attrition and Retention Risks

    Q1: Briefly mentioned potential attrition risks due to market consolidation with limited regional detail. Q2: Noted that smaller and midsized clients showed strong retention, though regional challenges were acknowledged in passing.

    Q4: More detailed discussion highlighting potential attrition risks in regions such as California, and normalized attrition trends in specific segments (e.g., InsurTech auto).

    Emerging focus on regional attrition risks, particularly in high-risk geographies, representing a shift towards increased scrutiny of customer retention.

    Rising Interest Expenses and Broader Macroeconomic Cost Pressures

    Q1: A slight increase in net interest expenses was observed, reflecting lower cash balances relative to the prior year. Q2: Mixed messaging with net interest expense down from prior year levels due to higher interest income, despite anticipated higher run rates due to refinancing activities.

    Q4: Clearly higher interest expenses reported (from $28M to $35M) with forecasts for even more significant increases in 2025, driven by refinancing needs and increased debt balances.

    Growing pressure from rising interest expenses is a consistent theme with an accelerating trend due to higher debt costs.

    Declining Reliance on Transactional Revenue

    Q1: Transactional revenue comprised 20% of total revenue with modest growth partly offset by conversion to subscriptions and strong performance in specific segments. Q2: Noted a 3% OCC decline in transactional revenue alongside conversion trends, reinforcing a gradual shift.

    Q4: Transactional revenue declined by 1.1% on an OCC basis with subscription revenue now capturing 82% of total revenue, underscoring an ongoing structural shift.

    Continued decline in transactional revenue reinforces the strategic conversion toward a subscription-based model over time.

    1. Price Realization and Subscription Growth
      Q: How are you achieving better price realization and subscription growth?
      A: We have been more successful at driving value-driven price increases, focusing on delivering more value and communicating that value to clients. This has led to strong subscription growth of 11% this quarter. Examples include our Core Lines Reimagined investments, where clients see substantial improvements in product value, and strength in our Extreme Events business due to a stronger perception of our models' value.

    2. 2025 Revenue Guidance Factors
      Q: What factors influence your 2025 revenue guidance range?
      A: The 6–8% revenue growth guidance considers several factors. On the low end, potential customer attrition, including temporary pullback in California, and transactional volume variability, especially in auto and weather-related areas. On the high end, faster traction from new products like Exact Expert, Discovery, and Augmented Underwriting could drive higher growth. Broader economic factors like interest rates and regulatory changes may also impact results.

    3. Impact of California Wildfires and Regulations
      Q: How do California wildfires and regulatory changes affect your business?
      A: The wildfires highlight the need for increased pricing in the market. California now allows forward-looking models for pricing, and we were the first to submit our wildfire model as a basis for pricing. This should provide stability and greater rate adequacy in 2025. It also heightens the importance of our catastrophic risk modeling, leading to strong demand for our expertise.

    4. Extended Contract Renewals
      Q: What benefits come from longer contract renewals?
      A: The extension of contract lengths provides greater predictability and reflects stronger strategic relationships with clients. It demonstrates clients' confidence in us and creates opportunities to be more deeply embedded, improving deal economics and partnership value over time.

    5. Transactional to Subscription Conversion
      Q: How is converting transactions to subscriptions impacting growth?
      A: Converting transactional revenue to subscription packages has been successful, particularly in our Anti-Fraud business. This has provided a sustained tailwind on the subscription side and will continue impacting growth through the first half of next year. A specific contract conversion will persist through mid-second quarter, contributing to subscription growth.

    6. Premium Growth Contribution
      Q: How will elevated premium growth affect pricing contribution in 2025?
      A: Approximately 20–25% of our revenue comes from contracts linked to premium growth with a two-year lag. We see strong pricing input continuing from the elevated premium growth in 2023, but the more important factor is the clients' perception of the value we provide.

    7. Capital Expenditures and Free Cash Flow
      Q: Why did CapEx come in below guidance, and what are free cash flow expectations?
      A: The lower CapEx was due to timing factors with no major project delays; some investments shifted into 2025. We're investing significantly in both CapEx and OpEx, supporting healthy organic growth. While we don't forecast free cash flow growth, we're pleased with double-digit free cash flow growth in 2024 and confident enough to increase the dividend.

    8. M&A Pipeline
      Q: What is your outlook on M&A opportunities?
      A: The M&A pipeline remains unchanged, with values remaining high. As we've opened our ecosystem, we're better positioned to identify how new businesses can add value and fit within our broader operations, potentially enhancing our offerings to clients.

    9. Accounting Guidance Details
      Q: Are share buybacks and higher interest expense included in guidance?
      A: Yes, the 2025 guidance assumes share buyback activity. The higher interest expense reflects the impact of our 2024 refinancing and rising rates, with the fourth-quarter run rate of $35 million annualized into guidance. Increased depreciation and amortization is due to investments in projects and CapEx coming into service.

    10. Marketing Business Performance
      Q: How did your marketing business perform and outlook for 2025?
      A: Our marketing business saw strong growth in the insurance customer segment, with tailwinds expected to continue into next year. However, the rest of the customer base remains muted due to the broader advertising and marketing environment.

    11. Sustainability of Subscription Growth
      Q: Can subscription growth momentum be sustained in 2025?
      A: We're excited about the subscription strength across our businesses. While Q4 benefited from some technical factors like contract conversions and easier comps, we believe the strong pricing realization and value recognition from clients will continue to drive positive outcomes.

    12. Impact of Storms on Transactional Revenue
      Q: How did storms affect your transactional revenue?
      A: Storms like Helene and Milton had a similar revenue impact as Hurricane Ian in 2022 but didn't exceed the 1% revenue growth threshold we use for quantification. We don't expect these storms to significantly impact 2025 revenue, assuming a normalized level of storm activity.

    13. New Product Modules Impact
      Q: Will new modules in Core Lines Reimagined drive higher price realization?
      A: Each new module adds value, providing opportunities for increased pricing. In 2025, we're adding modules like the Commercial Auto Module and rolling out the ISO Experience Index across all commercial lines. However, pricing benefits are gradual due to multiyear contracts with large customers.

    14. Exposure to Federal Government Changes
      Q: What is your exposure to federal government revenue and regulations?
      A: Revenues from the federal government are less than 1% of our total. We don't anticipate direct exposure to tariffs or trade executive orders. Insurance regulation is primarily state-based, so federal involvement is relatively light.

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