VI
VERISIGN INC/CA (VRSN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered solid top-line and EPS growth: revenue $419.1M (+7.3% YoY) and diluted EPS $2.27 (+9.7% YoY), both modestly above S&P Global consensus; revenue beat by ~$2.3M and EPS beat by $0.03, while EBITDA came in below consensus, reflecting higher incentive comp and legal costs . Revenue consensus $416.85M*, EPS consensus $2.24*, EBITDA consensus $315.35M*; actual EBITDA $291.6M*.
- Management raised full-year guidance ranges again (third straight quarter): revenue $1,652–$1,657M, operating income $1,119–$1,124M; capex held at $25–$35M; tax rate 21–24% . Prior updates were $1,645–$1,655M in Q2 and $1,635–$1,650M in Q1 .
- Domain KPIs strengthened: .com/.net base reached 171.9M (+1.4% YoY), net adds 1.45M, new regs 10.6M; preliminary Q3 renewal rate expected 75.3% (vs. 72.2% a year ago) and Q2 final renewal rate was 75.5% .
- Capital return consistent: $215M buybacks (0.8M shares) and $0.77 dividend declared for Nov. 25; $1.33B remains authorized for repurchases (no expiration) .
- Tone: confident on marketing program impact and AI-driven DNS usage; .web legal process final hearing mid-November 2025; ICANN’s next gTLD round targeted to open in Q2 2026, earliest deployments likely 2027 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong revenue/EPS growth with beat vs consensus; CFO: “Operating cash flow $308M and free cash flow $303M” in Q3; guidance raised again . Revenue $419.1M (+7.3% YoY), EPS $2.27 (+9.7% YoY) .
- KPIs improved: “10.6 million new registrations… net registrations added… 1.45 million names,” renewal rate expected 75.3% vs 72.2% YoY; U.S. and EMEA were strongest .
- AI tailwinds: “AI is having a positive impact on registrations as well as on the utilization of our DNS resolution services… over 450 billion DNS transactions per day” .
What Went Wrong
- EBITDA miss vs consensus as expenses rose: operating expense $135M vs $121M YoY; increases “include incentive compensation and legal costs” . EBITDA actual $291.6M* vs $315.35M*.
- Asia Pac growth moderated vs H1: “Asia Pac… did grow again, but it wasn’t as strong as the growth we saw during the first half of 2025” .
- Investor concern on AdSense: management views exposure as minimal, but acknowledged long-term erosion in ad-monetized parked domains; “downhill slide for 15 years… Panda, Penguin” (context, potential overhang for some ecosystem players) .
Financial Results
Core Financials vs Prior Periods
Notes: Margins are computed from cited revenue and income figures.
KPIs
Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Results vs S&P Global Consensus
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “VeriSign delivered both growth in a domain name base and solid financial performance… We also continued our consistent return of value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.” – Jim Bidzos .
- “Operating expense… $135M… increases include incentive compensation and legal costs… Operating cash flow $308M, free cash flow $303M.” – John Calys .
- “We now expect the growth in the domain name base to be between 2.2% and 2.5% for 2025.” – Jim Bidzos .
- “AI is having a positive impact on registrations… infrastructure processes over 450B DNS transactions per day… trend will continue and be additive.” – Jim Bidzos .
Q&A Highlights
- Marketing programs: Designed to yield “higher quality and higher renewing names”; accounted as a revenue reduction; 2026 programs broaden choices and remain accretive .
- Regional performance: EMEA consistent; U.S. strengthened; APAC grew but slower than H1; renewal rates improved across first-time and previously renewed names .
- Google AdSense changes: Minimal exposure for VRSN; ad-monetized parked domains have eroded for ~15 years (Panda/Penguin); distinguishes resale/defensive parked domains from ad-monetized .
- .web and gTLDs: .web IRP final hearing mid-Nov 2025; ICANN’s next round targeted Q2 2026; earliest deployments likely 2027; no auctions in new process .
- AI: Positive for domain suggestions, provisioning, content generation; domain names as “digital trust anchors” in an agentic AI world .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 beat on revenue and EPS vs S&P Global consensus; EBITDA missed. Revenue: $419.1M actual vs $416.85M* consensus; EPS: $2.27 actual vs $2.24*; EBITDA: $291.6M* actual vs $315.35M*. Q2 showed a slight revenue miss ($409.9M actual vs $410.97M*) with an EPS beat ($2.21 vs $2.18*) . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Company guidance now implies FY revenue midpoint ~$1,654.5M vs FY consensus ~$1,655.1M*, suggesting consensus may hold or modestly rise if domain base trends persist . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Target price consensus $295.5*; limited number of covering estimates (# of estimates: EPS 1–3; revenue 2–4), indicating sparse coverage and potentially higher sensitivity to quarterly outcomes*. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential momentum intact: revenue, EPS, and cash flow strengthened; operating and net margins remained ~68% and ~51%, respectively, with disciplined expense control despite legal/incentive cost pressure .
- Marketing programs are working and accretive; renewal rates continue to improve, supporting FY domain base growth of 2.2–2.5% and underpinning guidance raises .
- AI-driven DNS usage is a durable tailwind for VRSN’s core infrastructure; management sees positive trends in registrations and resolution activity tied to AI .
- Capital return is robust (buybacks + dividend), with $1.33B repurchase authorization and a consistent $0.77 quarterly dividend, offering downside support .
- Watch APAC moderation and expense cadence: APAC growth slowed vs H1 and SG&A stepped up due to incentives/legal; EBITDA underperformed consensus, a point for near-term estimate calibration .
- Regulatory milestones ahead: .web IRP final hearing mid-Nov; ICANN gTLD round in 2026 (no auctions) could open optionality; resolution timelines can be catalysts for sentiment .
- Near-term trading lens: modest beat/raise profile and AI narrative likely supportive; any update on .web outcome and sustained KPI strength (new regs/renewals) are key stock drivers in coming weeks .
Appendix: Additional Context
- DNIB report: Industry-wide domain name registrations reached 378.5M (+4.5% YoY); .com/.net combined base 171.9M; new .com/.net regs 10.6M in Q3 2025—consistent with VRSN-reported KPIs, reinforcing demand backdrop .
- Balance sheet notes: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities $618M at quarter end; deferred revenues $1.38B; long-term senior notes $1,787.6M .