Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered strong operating performance but GAAP optics were weak: Operating revenues rose to $3.93B (+29% YoY), while GAAP net loss widened to $(268)M on large unrealized derivative M2M losses; Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA increased 53% YoY to $1.24B, driven by retail strength, higher wholesale prices, and two extra months of Energy Harbor contribution .
Results vs Street: Revenue ($3.93B) and S&P “Primary EPS” ($0.32) missed consensus ($5.32B and $0.78), but profitability outperformed with company-reported Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA of $1.24B vs S&P EBITDA consensus near ~$1.01B, reflecting hedging and fleet availability resiliency (methodology non-GAAP vs S&P EBITDA not perfectly comparable)* .
Guidance unchanged: Reaffirmed FY 2025 Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5–$6.1B and Adjusted FCFbG of $3.0–$3.6B; 2026 midpoint “opportunity” still >$6B; ~100% of 2025 and ~90% of 2026 expected generation volumes hedged, supporting visibility .
Capital returns and liquidity intact: $5.2B of buybacks executed since 2021; ~339.3M shares outstanding (-~30% from Nov-2021). Quarterly common dividend raised to $0.2250 in May (from $0.2235 in Feb). Liquidity stood at ~$3.9B at quarter-end .
Potential stock reaction catalysts: durability of 2025 guide despite GAAP loss, expanding data-center load pipeline, Texas SB6/FERC colocation clarity over summer, and accretive NG portfolio acquisition announced mid-May (2.6GW at ~$743/kW, ~7x 2026E EBITDA) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Profitability resilience: Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA +$430M YoY to $1.24B on strong retail, higher realized wholesale pricing, and Energy Harbor contribution .
- Operations excellence and retail momentum: ~95% fleet commercial availability through winter storms; retail grew in both volume and customer count YoY. CEO: “Our plants achieved commercial availability of approximately 95% while our retail business grew… These results…are evidence of the resiliency of our business…” .
- Visibility: Reaffirmed 2025 guidance; hedged ~100% of 2025 and ~90% of 2026 generation, with CEO/CFO emphasizing stability through volatility and hedging “locking in value” .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP optics pressured by M2M: Net loss increased by $286M YoY, primarily due to unrealized mark-to-market losses as forward energy prices rose .
- Headwinds/outages: Management cited an outage at Martin Lake Unit 1 and Moss Landing batteries being offline; still, guidance reaffirmed (implying offset elsewhere) .
- Street misses on revenue/EPS: Q1 revenue and S&P “Primary EPS” fell below consensus; non-comparable EBITDA definitions cloud profitability comparisons* .

Financial Results

Reported results (YoY)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Operating Revenues ($B)	$3.05	$3.93
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)	$18	$(268)
Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	$0.81	$1.24

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus (point-in-time)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Operating Revenues ($B)	$5.32*	$3.93
Primary EPS (S&P) ($)	$0.78*	$0.32*
EBITDA ($B)	$1.01*	$— (Company Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA: $1.24)

Notes: Consensus and S&P “Primary EPS”/EBITDA values marked with * are from S&P Global. Company-reported Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP metric and not directly comparable to S&P EBITDA.

Sequential profitability trend (company non-GAAP)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	$1.44	$1.99	$1.24

Segment profitability (Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA)

Segment ($M)	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Retail	$(28)	$184
Texas	$429	$490
East	$367	$514
West	$56	$62
Corporate & Other	$(14)	$(10)
Asset Closure (excluded from “Ongoing Ops”)	$(20)	$(24)

KPI and cash/returns

KPI	Q1 2025
Hedging coverage of expected generation	~100% (2025), ~90% (2026)
Commercial availability	~95%
Cash from Operations	$599M
Total available liquidity	~$3,903M (Cash $561M; RCF $2,217M; Commodity-linked RCF $1,125M)
Buybacks since Nov-2021	~$5.2B; ~339.3M shares outstanding (~30% reduction)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$5.5–$6.1B	$5.5–$6.1B	Maintained
Ongoing Ops Adjusted FCFbG	FY 2025	$3.0–$3.6B	$3.0–$3.6B	Maintained
D&A (assumption, Ongoing Ops)	FY 2025	$2,180M	$2,180M	Maintained
Interest expense (assumption)	FY 2025	~$1,070M	~$1,070M	Maintained
Cash from Ops (consol.)	FY 2025	$4.44–$5.04B	$4.44–$5.04B	Maintained
Capex incl. nuclear fuel/LTSA	FY 2025	$(1,221)M	$(1,221)M	Maintained
Common dividend per share	Q2 2025	$0.2235 (declared Feb 21)	$0.2250 (declared May 1)	Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
AI/data center load	Q3’24: Emphasis on 2025/26 visibility, PPAs with Amazon (200MW TX) and Microsoft (405MW IL); Comanche Peak license extension . Q4’24: Reaffirmed ’25 guide; nuclear PTC support .	CEO/CFO more confident on durable, diversified load growth; hyperscalers reaffirmed/increased CapEx; colocation/front-of-meter both viable; expect low-to-mid single-digit annual load growth through 2030 .	Improving confidence and pipeline clarity
Hedging/visibility	Q3’24: ~96% 2025 hedged; ~64% 2026 . Q4’24: ~100% 2025; ~80% 2026 .	~100% 2025 and ~90% 2026 hedged; stability through volatility .	Higher 2026 hedge ratio YoY
Texas SB6	—	Management tracking SB6; sees potential to unlock deals but flags customer concerns (e.g., disconnect switch); aiming for clarity by early June session end .	Await clarity; constructive but cautious
PJM auction/collar & colocation	Q3’24: Auction collar discussed in sector; 2025 guide initiated .	PJM collar supports new build signals; FERC colocation docket nearing resolution; prefer direct ruling, else ~60–90 days for settlement path .	Regulatory path progressing
Supply chain/tariffs	—	Solar/storage costs “insulated from recently announced tariffs” for active projects .	Mitigated
Capital allocation	Q3’24: Additional $1B buybacks authorized; committed returns through 2026 . Q4’24: Strong FCF conversion; visibility to 2025 .	Buyback program continues under 10b5-1 with no pauses; ~30% share count reduction since 2021; net leverage just under 3x .	Ongoing returns; balance sheet at target

Management Commentary

“We reliably produced electricity during multiple winter storms… Our plants achieved commercial availability of approximately 95% while our retail business grew in both volume and customer count… With the strong first quarter results, we are reaffirming our 2025 guidance range…” — Jim Burke, CEO .
“Vistra delivered first quarter results… adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.240 billion… driven by inclusion of 2 additional months of Energy Harbor… and average realized prices nearly $4/MWh higher… We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance… For 2026, our hedge ratio increased… to ~90% as our commercial team took advantage of market opportunities.” — Kris Moldovan, CFO .
“Our buyback program… We have never paused the share buyback program since we started it in ’21, and we don’t expect to.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Data center contracting model: No one-size-fits-all; colocation often offers speed; pricing won’t “harmonize” across deals; progress remains active with hyperscalers increasing CapEx .
Texas SB6 implications: Could unlock deals but certain provisions concern customers; outcome expected by early June; company prepared to work through changes .
PJM/colocation at FERC: Prefer a prompt ruling on the existing record; if settlement ordered, add ~60–90 days; expectation for summer clarity .
Market price outlook: Forwards may understate demand growth; price signals (energy and capacity) will be key to reliability and investments .
Coal fleet/regulatory: Potential for extended compliance timelines; evaluating coal-to-gas conversions; existing rules still govern certain retirements .

Estimates Context

Revenue: $3.93B vs $5.32B consensus — significant miss, largely due to GAAP reporting dynamics and M2M timing while non-GAAP EBITDA was strong* .
EPS (S&P Primary): $0.32 vs $0.78 consensus — miss; GAAP net loss reflects unrealized hedging losses* .
Profitability: Company’s Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA was $1.24B vs S&P EBITDA consensus ~$1.01B (non-GAAP vs S&P EBITDA not directly comparable) — profitability ahead of expectations despite revenue/EPS misses* .
Guidance: FY25 EBITDA/FCFbG reaffirmed, implying Street may need to look through GAAP M2M volatility and re-anchor on hedged cash earnings power .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Despite GAAP M2M noise, underlying earnings power remains robust and well-hedged; reaffirmed 2025 guide underscores cash durability .
Retail and nuclear/gas-heavy integrated model provides resilience; segment EBITDA gains in Texas/East and a retail rebound highlight balanced growth .
Regulatory milestones (Texas SB6; FERC colocation) are near-term catalysts for data-center-linked opportunities across ERCOT/PJM .
Capital returns remain a priority (buybacks uninterrupted; dividend increased), with leverage at target levels and liquidity of ~$3.9B .
Post-quarter, Vistra agreed to acquire 2.6GW modern NG assets at an attractive ~$743/kW (~7x 2026E EBITDA), enhancing geographic diversity and earnings accretion potential .
Watch list: resolution of PJM colocation docket, Texas legislative outcomes, restoration of Moss Landing/plant outage impacts, and progress on solar/storage build anchored by Amazon/Microsoft offtakes .

Additional detail and sources:

Q1 2025 press release and 8-K 2.02 (financials, non-GAAP, guidance, hedging, liquidity): .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (themes, Q&A, hedging, outages, regulatory): .
Prior quarters for trend: Q3’24, Q4’24 releases (guide, PPAs, segment EBITDA): .
Dividend changes and post-quarter acquisition: .

Vistra Corp. (VST)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary