Vistra Corp. (VST)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $1.985B, up from $0.965B in Q4 2023; GAAP net income was $490M versus a loss of $(184)M in Q4 2023, reflecting Energy Harbor inclusion and an estimated nuclear PTC recorded in Q4 .
• Full-year 2024 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.656B, ~$856M above the midpoint of original guidance, and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG was $2.888B, ~$438M above the original guidance midpoint .
• 2025 guidance was reaffirmed: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $5.5B–$6.1B and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG $3.0B–$3.6B; hedging stands at ~100% for 2025 and ~80% for 2026, supporting visibility and risk management .
• Management cited strong retail performance, 92% nuclear fleet capacity factor, and high commercial availability; they also discussed regulatory clarity on data-center co-location and expect up to $500M insurance recovery related to the Moss Landing battery incident—key stock narrative catalysts for 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record, “transformational” year: CEO highlighted acquisition of Energy Harbor, S&P 500 inclusion, Vistra Vision buyout, and outperformance versus guidance (“ended the year outperforming the high-end of our financial guidance”) .
• Robust Q4 segment performance: East ($774M), Texas ($598M), Retail ($600M) drove $1.985B Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA; uplift included ~$545M estimated nuclear PTC benefit .
• Operational execution: Nuclear capacity factor 92%; gas/coal fleet commercial availability ~95% and ~96% during winter storms; high hedge ratios support guidance .

Quote: “The talent and dedication of the people who make up Team Vistra resulted not only in a record year but a transformational one for our company… and ended the year outperforming the high-end of our financial guidance.” — Jim Burke, CEO

What Went Wrong

• Continued regulatory uncertainty on co-location (PJM/FERC and Texas SB6) complicates timing/structure of data-center deals; management awaits clarity on capacity auction parameters and SB6 provisions (e.g., remote disconnect, transmission charges) .
• Texas forward curves not fully reflecting load-growth expectations; management reluctant to sign long-dated fixed-price contracts at current curve levels .
• Moss Landing battery fire: assets offline; CFO expects up to $500M insurance, but timing/treatment uncertain; headline/operational risk persists .

Financial Results

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

KPIs and Balance/Capital

Notes:

• The Q4 2024 press release did not disclose quarterly revenue or EPS; therefore those comparisons are not included. Estimate data from S&P Global were unavailable at retrieval (see Estimates Context).

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategic posture: “Our integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program provide increased visibility into our long term financial outlook… 2024 was a transformational year” — Jim Burke .
• 2025/2026 outlook: “We are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2025… and maintaining our outlook for a 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6,000,000,000” — Jim Burke .
• Capital allocation: “We continue to expect to return at least $1,300,000,000 to our shareholders in each of 2025 and 2026… and have at least $1,500,000,000 of incremental capital available through the end of 2026” — Kris Moldovan .
• Retail and operations: Retail contribution trending $1.3–$1.4B annually over next several years; strong operational availability across fleets — Kris Moldovan .

Q&A Highlights

• Data-center deal timing/structure: Active talks with hyperscalers; co-location premium potential; Comanche Peak likely fastest; timing depends on FERC/PJM and Texas clarity; beware remote disconnect proposals .
• Forwards and contracting discipline: ERCOT forwards not fully pricing load growth; management reluctant to sign long-dated fixed-price deals at current levels .
• PJM cap-floor and auction parameters: Cap-floor likely; formal 2026 range held back pending auction clarity and hedging progress .
• Moss Landing incident: Insurance limit $500M; recovery expected up to policy limit; timing/treatment uncertain .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for revenue and EPS for Q4 2024 and prior quarters were unavailable at the time of retrieval; as a result, comparisons to consensus cannot be provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to system limits.
• The Q4 2024 press release did not disclose quarterly revenue or EPS figures; management’s reported KPIs, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA are used for performance analysis .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q4 momentum: Strong Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA and GAAP profitability, with full-year EBITDA and FCFbG materially surpassing original guidance midpoints—supportive for near-term sentiment .
• Visibility: High hedge coverage (~100% ’25; ~80% ’26) and reaffirmed 2025 ranges reduce downside risk; nuclear PTC provides additional cushion if prices soften .
• Catalysts: Policy clarity (PJM cap-floor, FERC co-location guidance, Texas SB6 particulars), data-center deal announcements (especially at Comanche Peak), and Moss Landing insurance recovery timing can move the stock .
• Retail durability: Management now frames retail contribution at $1.3–$1.4B annually over several years; combined with fleet availability, this underpins medium-term cash generation .
• Capital returns: Ongoing buybacks/dividends (common dividend declared $0.2235) and incremental capital suggest continued shareholder-friendly allocation into 2026 .
• Risk flag: Regulatory uncertainty around co-location terms (transmission charges, remote disconnect) and curve dynamics in ERCOT warrant monitoring; management is disciplined on pricing .
• Positioning: Diversified fleet, integrated retail, and development pipeline (renewables and gas augmentations/conversions) align with accelerating load-growth narrative in PJM and ERCOT .