VC
VIAD CORP (VVI)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered 17.6% revenue growth to $291.7M and swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of $14.5M (up $16.5M YoY), topping the high-end of prior guidance; GAAP net loss widened due to a prior-year gain and higher taxes .
- Management introduced robust 2024 guidance: consolidated adjusted EBITDA $171–$191M (+16%–30% YoY), with Pursuit at $105–$115M (~30% margin target) and GES at $80–$90M (~8.5% margin); Q1 guide implies seasonality at Pursuit and solid GES profitability .
- Segment momentum: Pursuit revenue +23.6% with attractions visitors +23% and higher ticket price; GES revenue +16.6% with strong flow-through, aided by non-annual shows and improving event sizes .
- 2024 catalysts: Opening of FlyOver Chicago (March), ~$65M incremental non-annual shows (IMTS, MINExpo, Farnborough, largely Q3), continued recovery of exhibition square footage, and pursuit of 30%+ margins at Pursuit .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Pursuit posted strong Q4 growth: attractions ticket revenue +34% on +23% visitors and higher ticket pricing; visitation strong in Western Canada and Iceland (Sky Lagoon) .
“Our attractions are built for volume and revenue from every incremental guest flows through at a high rate to our bottom line.” — David Barry - GES outperformed with Q4 adjusted EBITDA +$13.9M YoY on +16.6% revenue; underlying growth ~20% ex non-annual/ON Services, plus COP28 win in Q4 .
“We expect GES to deliver full year revenue growth in the low double-digit range [in 2024]” — Steven Moster - 2024 outlook raised expectations: consolidated adjusted EBITDA +16%–30%, strong cash from operations ($120–$140M) and capex discipline, with continued deleveraging .
- Pursuit posted strong Q4 growth: attractions ticket revenue +34% on +23% visitors and higher ticket pricing; visitation strong in Western Canada and Iceland (Sky Lagoon) .
-
What Went Wrong
- GAAP net loss widened in Q4 to $(15.3)M due to the prior-year $19.6M gain on sale of ON Services and higher tax expense despite better operating performance .
- Pursuit remained seasonally negative on EBITDA in Q4 (–$8.3M), though improved YoY on higher revenue .
- Higher interest expense and elevated effective tax rate (Q4 ETR –48.3% due to valuation allowance dynamics) pressured GAAP bottom line and complicate modeling .
Financial Results
Consolidated results by quarter (oldest → newest)
Segment breakdown (Q4 2023 vs. Q4 2022)
Selected Q4 2023 operating KPIs (Pursuit)
Cash flow and balance sheet highlights (as of/for Q4 & FY23)
- Q4 cash from operations outflow $9.8M; FY23 inflow $106.7M .
- Q4 capex $23.6M ($20.3M Pursuit; $3.2M GES); FY23 capex $78.3M ($64.6M Pursuit; $13.6M GES) .
- Year-end liquidity $160.7M (cash $52.7M; revolver availability ~$108.0M); total debt $462.1M; net leverage 2.6x .
Guidance Changes
Notes: ~$65M incremental revenue from non-annual shows in 2024 (primarily Q3) underpin GES outlook ; major shows include IMTS, MINExpo, Farnborough .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered strong fourth quarter and full year results, with consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding the high-end of our guidance.” — Steve Moster, CEO .
- “We expect full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA…up approximately 16% to 30% in 2024 with strong free cash flow.” — Steve Moster .
- “Pursuit’s adjusted EBITDA margin improved by about 370 basis points…In 2024, we expect…~30%.” — David Barry, President of Pursuit .
- “GES…Achieving a 7.7% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2023…With a strong non-annual show schedule in ’24…~8.5% this year.” — Steve Moster .
- “We ended 2023 with total liquidity of $160.7 million…full year cash flow from operations…$106.7 million.” — Ellen Ingersoll, CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Non-annual shows timing: IMTS, MINExpo, and Farnborough, largely Q3 2024 .
- Iceland dynamics: Sky Lagoon benefited from Blue Lagoon closures (no proximity risk), introducing new guests to the brand .
- Pursuit margin drivers: High flow-through from attractions volume; execution and pricing support 30% margin goal .
- 2024 growth capex: ~$20M at Pursuit with ~$6M for Chicago and targeted capacity/experience expansions (e.g., Maligne Lake boat, Sky Lagoon ritual expansion) .
- GES margins in off-cycle years: Expectation to maintain ~8%+ even without large non-annuals, supported by lean initiatives and same-show growth .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2023 EPS and revenue was unavailable in our system for VVI at the time of this analysis; therefore, a beat/miss versus consensus cannot be shown.
- We will update vs-estimate comparisons once CIQ mapping becomes available in S&P Global feeds.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Pursuit demand and pricing power remain robust; scaling volume at attractions drives outsized EBITDA flow-through and supports the ~30% 2024 margin target (aspiration to 33%) .
- GES has structurally improved margins via ~$50M SG&A reductions and lean initiatives; 2024 benefits from ~$65M non-annuals and continued same-show recovery, targeting ~8.5% EBITDA margin .
- 2024 guide is materially constructive (EBITDA +16%–30%), with strong operating cash flow and room to delever while funding selective high-return Pursuit projects .
- Q4 GAAP loss was driven by non-operational comparisons (prior-year gain, tax), while underlying adjusted EBITDA improved; investors should focus on adjusted metrics and FY24 cash generation .
- Near-term catalysts: FlyOver Chicago opening (March), Q3 non-annual mega-shows, continued recovery of exhibition square footage, and booking pace/ADR strength at Pursuit .