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VC

VIAD CORP (VVI)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered 17.6% revenue growth to $291.7M and swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of $14.5M (up $16.5M YoY), topping the high-end of prior guidance; GAAP net loss widened due to a prior-year gain and higher taxes .
  • Management introduced robust 2024 guidance: consolidated adjusted EBITDA $171–$191M (+16%–30% YoY), with Pursuit at $105–$115M (~30% margin target) and GES at $80–$90M (~8.5% margin); Q1 guide implies seasonality at Pursuit and solid GES profitability .
  • Segment momentum: Pursuit revenue +23.6% with attractions visitors +23% and higher ticket price; GES revenue +16.6% with strong flow-through, aided by non-annual shows and improving event sizes .
  • 2024 catalysts: Opening of FlyOver Chicago (March), ~$65M incremental non-annual shows (IMTS, MINExpo, Farnborough, largely Q3), continued recovery of exhibition square footage, and pursuit of 30%+ margins at Pursuit .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Pursuit posted strong Q4 growth: attractions ticket revenue +34% on +23% visitors and higher ticket pricing; visitation strong in Western Canada and Iceland (Sky Lagoon) .
      “Our attractions are built for volume and revenue from every incremental guest flows through at a high rate to our bottom line.” — David Barry
    • GES outperformed with Q4 adjusted EBITDA +$13.9M YoY on +16.6% revenue; underlying growth ~20% ex non-annual/ON Services, plus COP28 win in Q4 .
      “We expect GES to deliver full year revenue growth in the low double-digit range [in 2024]” — Steven Moster
    • 2024 outlook raised expectations: consolidated adjusted EBITDA +16%–30%, strong cash from operations ($120–$140M) and capex discipline, with continued deleveraging .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP net loss widened in Q4 to $(15.3)M due to the prior-year $19.6M gain on sale of ON Services and higher tax expense despite better operating performance .
    • Pursuit remained seasonally negative on EBITDA in Q4 (–$8.3M), though improved YoY on higher revenue .
    • Higher interest expense and elevated effective tax rate (Q4 ETR –48.3% due to valuation allowance dynamics) pressured GAAP bottom line and complicate modeling .

Financial Results

Consolidated results by quarter (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023
Revenue ($M)$320.3 $365.9 $291.7
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$42.9 $86.3 $14.5
Net Income Attributable to Viad ($M)$11.0 $41.3 $(15.3)
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) ($M)$11.8 $43.3 $(14.6)
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$(0.83)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$(0.79)

Segment breakdown (Q4 2023 vs. Q4 2022)

SegmentQ4 2022Q4 2023
Pursuit Revenue ($M)$34.1 $42.2
GES Revenue ($M)$213.9 $249.5
• Spiro Revenue ($M)$72.1 $83.6
• GES Exhibitions Revenue ($M)$143.6 $168.3
Pursuit Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(11.3) $(8.3)
GES Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$12.7 $26.6
• Spiro Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$5.8 $12.5
• GES Exhibitions Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$6.9 $14.1
Corporate Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(3.5) $(3.7)
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(2.0) $14.5

Selected Q4 2023 operating KPIs (Pursuit)

KPIQ4 2023YoY
Attraction Visitors (000s)549.0 +23.0%
Same-Store Effective Ticket Price$38 +7.8%
Same-Store Lodging RevPAR$66 +2.5%

Cash flow and balance sheet highlights (as of/for Q4 & FY23)

  • Q4 cash from operations outflow $9.8M; FY23 inflow $106.7M .
  • Q4 capex $23.6M ($20.3M Pursuit; $3.2M GES); FY23 capex $78.3M ($64.6M Pursuit; $13.6M GES) .
  • Year-end liquidity $160.7M (cash $52.7M; revolver availability ~$108.0M); total debt $462.1M; net leverage 2.6x .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated RevenueQ1 2024— (initial 2024 outlook)$260–$284M Introduced
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2024$(0.5)–$7.5M Introduced
Consolidated Cash from OperationsQ1 2024$5–$15M Introduced
Consolidated CapexQ1 2024$25–$30M (incl. ~$10M growth) Introduced
Consolidated RevenueFY 2024Up high-single to low-double digits Introduced
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$171–$191M Introduced
Consolidated Cash from OperationsFY 2024$120–$140M Introduced
Consolidated CapexFY 2024$65–$70M (incl. ~$20M growth) Introduced
Pursuit RevenueQ1 2024$35–$39M Introduced
Pursuit Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2024$(12)–$(8)M Introduced
Pursuit RevenueFY 2024Up mid-single digits Introduced
Pursuit Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$105–$115M (~30% margin target) Introduced
GES RevenueQ1 2024$225–$245M Introduced
GES Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2024$15–$19M Introduced
GES RevenueFY 2024Up low-double digits Introduced
GES Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$80–$90M (~8.5% margin) Introduced

Notes: ~$65M incremental revenue from non-annual shows in 2024 (primarily Q3) underpin GES outlook ; major shows include IMTS, MINExpo, Farnborough .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2023, Q3 2023)Current Period (Q4 2023)Trend
International tourism & Pursuit demandQ2: Strong visitation, ticket revenue +25%, Canadian attractions up; lodging RevPAR drivers and booking pace strength . Q3: Record Q3 revenue/EBITDA; attractions visitors +15%; Western Canada strength .Q4: Attractions ticket revenue +34% on +23% visitors; continued strength in Western Canada and Iceland; 2024 same-store growth expected (visitation low double-digit; ETP mid-single-digit) .Improving
GES same-show & event size recoveryQ2: U.S. same-show revenue ~98.5% of 2019; square footage ~86% . Q3: Recovery continued; 2024 stronger with non-annual shows .Q4: Q4 revenue +16.6%; COP28 win; 2024 low double-digit growth; maintain ~8.5% margin even in odd years targeted longer term .Improving
Non-annual shows cadenceQ3: ~$70M 2024 benefit expected .2024 ~$65M incremental revenue; named IMTS, MINExpo, Farnborough in Q3 .Positive
Pursuit marginsQ2/Q3: Path to 30%+ EBITDA margin reiterated .2024 target ~30%; longer-term aspiration ~33% sustainable .Improving
Spiro (experiential) growthQ2: Investments to build capability; client wins; B2C sports marketing entry . Q3: New clients; budgets above 2019 .Q4: Strong Q4 EBITDA uplift at Spiro; momentum to 2024 .Improving
Cash flow & leverageQ3: Expect strong 2024 operating cash flow; debt paydown via revolver flexibility .FY24 CFO $120–$140M; net leverage 2.6x at YE; plan to reduce debt while funding selective Pursuit growth .Improving

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered strong fourth quarter and full year results, with consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding the high-end of our guidance.” — Steve Moster, CEO .
  • “We expect full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA…up approximately 16% to 30% in 2024 with strong free cash flow.” — Steve Moster .
  • “Pursuit’s adjusted EBITDA margin improved by about 370 basis points…In 2024, we expect…~30%.” — David Barry, President of Pursuit .
  • “GES…Achieving a 7.7% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2023…With a strong non-annual show schedule in ’24…~8.5% this year.” — Steve Moster .
  • “We ended 2023 with total liquidity of $160.7 million…full year cash flow from operations…$106.7 million.” — Ellen Ingersoll, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Non-annual shows timing: IMTS, MINExpo, and Farnborough, largely Q3 2024 .
  • Iceland dynamics: Sky Lagoon benefited from Blue Lagoon closures (no proximity risk), introducing new guests to the brand .
  • Pursuit margin drivers: High flow-through from attractions volume; execution and pricing support 30% margin goal .
  • 2024 growth capex: ~$20M at Pursuit with ~$6M for Chicago and targeted capacity/experience expansions (e.g., Maligne Lake boat, Sky Lagoon ritual expansion) .
  • GES margins in off-cycle years: Expectation to maintain ~8%+ even without large non-annuals, supported by lean initiatives and same-show growth .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2023 EPS and revenue was unavailable in our system for VVI at the time of this analysis; therefore, a beat/miss versus consensus cannot be shown.
  • We will update vs-estimate comparisons once CIQ mapping becomes available in S&P Global feeds.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Pursuit demand and pricing power remain robust; scaling volume at attractions drives outsized EBITDA flow-through and supports the ~30% 2024 margin target (aspiration to 33%) .
  • GES has structurally improved margins via ~$50M SG&A reductions and lean initiatives; 2024 benefits from ~$65M non-annuals and continued same-show recovery, targeting ~8.5% EBITDA margin .
  • 2024 guide is materially constructive (EBITDA +16%–30%), with strong operating cash flow and room to delever while funding selective high-return Pursuit projects .
  • Q4 GAAP loss was driven by non-operational comparisons (prior-year gain, tax), while underlying adjusted EBITDA improved; investors should focus on adjusted metrics and FY24 cash generation .
  • Near-term catalysts: FlyOver Chicago opening (March), Q3 non-annual mega-shows, continued recovery of exhibition square footage, and booking pace/ADR strength at Pursuit .