Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered a sharp revenue inflection driven by BARDA project revenue ($39.73M, +520% YoY) while net loss narrowed modestly to $15.0M; EPS was -$0.07 versus -$0.09 last year .
Operationally, the COVID-19 Phase 2b trial was halted on Aug 5 via a stop-work order after ~5,000 of the planned 10,000 participants were enrolled; follow-up continues for those dosed and the 400-person sentinel cohort, with topline data anticipated in late 2026 and sentinel cohort data in Q1 2026 .
Norovirus program advanced meaningfully: Phase 1 topline showed statistically significant increases in blocking antibodies with second-generation constructs (GI.1 +141%, GII.4 +94%), supporting improved protection potential; Phase 2b start is contingent on funding/partnership and could begin as early as H2 2025 .
Cash and investments were $26.3M at quarter end, with runway into early 2026; workforce was reduced by ~21% in Q2 following a ~10% reduction earlier in 2025 to align costs with program needs .
Near-term stock catalysts: Nasdaq relisting process (reverse split proposal vote Sept 5; panel hearing Aug 14; fireside chat Aug 20), BARDA follow-up clarity, and potential norovirus partnership progress .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Norovirus second‑generation constructs delivered statistically significant antibody improvements versus first generation (GI.1 +141%, GII.4 +94%) with clean safety, strengthening the case for Phase 2b and potential partnership interest .
COVID-19 Phase 2b enrollment ramped rapidly to ~5,000 prior to the stop-work order, indicating strong participant demand; DSMB permitted continuation without modification in July, validating safety profile .
Avian influenza preclinical candidate showed 100% survival in ferret challenge versus 0% for placebo, reinforcing platform potential and partnership opportunities .

Management quotes:

“We continue to make significant progress in advancing our novel, oral vaccine platform” .
“We believe the robust enrollment pace showcases the demand for a better COVID vaccine” .
“These data are highly compelling and have the potential to support a partnership or business development opportunity” (avian flu) .

What Went Wrong

A second stop-work order (Aug 5) paused COVID Phase 2b screening/enrollment mid‑execution, creating timeline uncertainty and funding visibility risk despite continued follow-up for ~5,000 already dosed and the sentinel cohort .
R&D expenses surged to $49.7M (+184% YoY) due to trial activity, outpacing revenue growth and pressuring operating results despite improved YoY net loss .
Nasdaq listing suspension and OTCQX trading reduced institutional investor access and potential partner perception; company is seeking shareholder approval for a reverse split to support relisting .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$6.40	$20.90	$39.73
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(16.47)	$(15.60)	$(14.99)
EPS ($USD)	$(0.09)	$(0.07)	$(0.07)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$17.48	$30.70	$49.74
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$5.18	$5.10	$4.60

Drivers: Q2 revenue primarily from BARDA government contracts; YoY increase reflects project ramp; R&D spike linked to COVID and norovirus trial costs; G&A decreased YoY on lower professional fees .

KPIs and Operational Metrics

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
COVID Phase 2b sentinel cohort (400) status	Enrollment completed; DSMB Jan: proceed without modification	Per protocol follow-up continued; 12‑month follow-up concludes Dec 2025	Data expected Q1 2026
COVID Phase 2b 10k cohort	Stop-work order (Feb 21) paused planning	Stop-work order lifted Apr 24; screening and site reactivation underway	Second stop-work order Aug 5; ~5,000 enrolled; follow-up continues; topline late 2026
Norovirus Phase 1 topline	—	Enrollment completed; topline mid‑2025 guided	GI.1 +141% and GII.4 +94% NBAA increases; well‑tolerated
Avian influenza preclinical	—	100% survival vs placebo in ferret clade 2.3.4.4b model (ongoing publishing plan)	Maintained: 100% survival; plan to publish
Cash & investments ($MM)	—	$41.90	$26.30
BARDA cash receipts cumulative	—	$85.6MM through Mar 31, 2025	$98.9MM through Jun 30, 2025
Workforce reductions	—	~10% in 2025 to date	Additional ~21% in Q2 2025

Segment Breakdown

Vaxart reports as a single operating segment (no segment breakdown disclosed) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
COVID Phase 2b 10k cohort topline	Late 2026	12‑month follow-up after last dosing; timeline implied for late 2026	Topline data anticipated in late 2026	Maintained
COVID sentinel cohort topline	Q1 2026	Follow-up concludes Dec 2025; data 3–6 months thereafter	Data anticipated in Q1 2026	Clarified timing
Norovirus Phase 2b start (funding-dependent)	H2 2025 (potential)	Phase 2b could begin as early as H2 2025 pending funding/partnership	Maintained expectation pending funding/partnership	Maintained
Cash runway	Into 2026	Into Q1 2026	Into Q1 2026 (current plan); pursuing BD/non‑dilutive funding to extend	Maintained
BARDA contract collection (post stop-work)	2025–2026	N/A	Expect >50% of original contract value to be collected given fixed costs	New expectation
Stock listing plan	2025	Reverse split proposal; appeal/hearing with Nasdaq	Reverse split ratio 1:5–1:20 proposed; special meeting Sept 5; fireside chat Aug 20	Reaffirmed with narrower ratio

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
COVID Phase 2b execution	Q4: stop-work order (Feb); sentinel cohort safe; platform alignment with BARDA/HHS	Rapid enrollment to ~5,000; second stop-work order; DSMB OK; follow-up funded; topline late 2026	Mixed: execution strong; external halt creates uncertainty
Norovirus program	Q4/Q1: initiated Phase 1; endpoints NBAA, fecal IgA; Phase 2b contingent on funding	Phase 1 topline: GI.1 +141%, GII.4 +94%; safety clean; active BD discussions	Positive momentum toward Phase 2b
Avian influenza	Q4/Q1: new construct; 100% survival in ferrets; plan to publish	Reiterated ferret survival; BD interest; publication plan	Continued strength; early-stage
Funding/partnerships	Q4/Q1: pursuing BD, non-dilutive funding; CFO transition	Active discussions; norovirus partnership gating; >50% BARDA collection expected	Ongoing; visibility improving slightly
Stock listing / Nasdaq	Q1: reverse split proposal rationale	OTCQX trading; Nasdaq hearing Aug 14; reverse split vote Sept 5; fireside chat Aug 20	High-priority relisting effort
R&D execution/costs	Q1: site reactivation, screening; R&D $30.7M	R&D $49.7M; workforce reductions ~21% in Q2	Elevated spend; cost actions taken
Regulatory/legal	Q4/Q1: DSMB OK; FDA data sharing; contractual constraints with BARDA/HHS	DSMB mid‑July OK; awaiting rationale for stop-work	Stable safety oversight; policy uncertainty persists

Management Commentary

“We believe the strong enrollment we achieved not only validates the demand for an alternative to current COVID-19 vaccines, but also enables us to generate meaningful data... against an injectable mRNA comparator.” (CEO) .
“The difference was statistically significant in the high dose cohort... we’re optimistic that this will translate into a greater reduction in infection in a field study.” (CMO, norovirus) .
“One hundred percent of the ferrets receiving the new H5 vaccine survived... decreased viral load was statistically significant.” (CSO, avian flu) .
“Vaxart ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $26.3 million... expects cash runway into 2026.” (CFO) .
“Our listing on NASDAQ has been suspended... we strongly believe that voting for the proposal is in the best interest of Vaxart.” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

COVID Phase 2b design/statistics: ~5,000 enrolled in the randomized study; ~1:1 ratio test vs mRNA comparator; statistical analysis plan being revisited to maximize utility of available data .
Norovirus Phase 2b gating: Advancement contingent on funding/partnership; CRO work lined up; no additional gating beyond financing .
BARDA/stop-work impact: No specific rationale provided yet; BARDA continues funding per protocol follow-up; company anticipates collecting >50% of original contract due to fixed cost components .
Avian flu pathway: Publication planned; targeting at-risk populations; exploring federal funding avenues .
R&D spend outlook: Follow-up activities reimbursed; strategy to extend runway via BD and non-dilutive sources .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 EPS and revenue was not available for VXRT at the time of this review; likely limited or no formal analyst coverage given OTCQX status and stage of development. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Without consensus benchmarks, the quarter’s apparent operational “beat” is the revenue ramp versus internal history (BARDA-driven) and strong program execution prior to the stop-work order. Sell-side models, where they exist, may need to reflect: higher recognized BARDA revenue, elevated R&D from trial activity, and extended sentinel/10k cohort data timelines .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue inflection is BARDA-driven and lumpy; durability depends on Project NextGen execution and funding continuity amid stop-work uncertainty .
Norovirus data are a genuine de‑risking event (statistically significant NBAA increases) that can catalyze a partnership; funding remains the critical gate for Phase 2b initiation .
COVID-19 trial narrative: strong demand and safety validation (DSMB), but external policy decisions dictate timeline; follow-up on ~5,000 participants still targets meaningful late‑2026 readout .
Balance sheet: $26.3M cash/investments and runway into Q1 2026; cost actions implemented; expect >50% of contract collections despite halt, supporting liquidity near term .
Stock microstructure matters: Relisting via reverse split likely necessary to broaden investor base and improve partnership optics; watch Aug 14 Nasdaq hearing and Sept 5 vote .
Trading: Near-term stock moves likely tied to relisting developments and BARDA communications; medium-term thesis hinges on norovirus partnership, COVID data path, and avian flu BD traction .
Risk/reward: Platform breadth (mucosal + systemic) and multiple shots on goal vs. regulatory/funding overhang and high R&D intensity; catalysts are discrete and event‑driven .

Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary