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NCR Voyix Corp (VYX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered revenue of $684M, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.31, and adjusted EBITDA of $125M, with margin expanding to 18.3% (+490 bps YoY), driven by improved hardware margins and cost actions .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue $668.7M*, EPS $0.21*, and EBITDA $120.1M*; the company also raised FY25 revenue and EPS guidance while narrowing adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FCF ranges .
  • FY25 outlook raised: revenue to $2.65–$2.67B (from $2.575–$2.65B), hardware $670–$680M (from $580–$630M), EPS to $0.85–$0.90 (from $0.75–$0.80); software & services trimmed, EBITDA range tightened to $420–$435M (from $420–$445M), adjusted FCF to $170–$175M (from $170–$190M) .
  • Strategic catalysts: six-year exclusive Chipotle agreement to roll out the Aloha next-gen POS across ~4,000 restaurants; new payments partnerships (WEX, Corpay) expand TAM across commercial fuel; multiple enterprise wins (H-E-B, grocery alliance) and platform KPIs ascending .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Recurring revenue grew +5% YoY to $425M as platform sites rose +12% to 78k and payment sites ~8.5k, supporting ARR of $1.7B and Software ARR of $798M .
  • Restaurants segment margin expanded to 35.2% with adjusted EBITDA up 12% to $74M on payments growth and new enterprise agreements; Retail saw sequential margin improvement (+150 bps) to 19.3% .
  • “I am pleased with our performance in the quarter as we continue to execute on our strategy… focused on accelerating growth and solidifying our leadership in unified commerce” — CEO Jim Kelly .
  • Payments TAM expansion via direct partnerships with WEX and Corpay for fleet card acceptance; management emphasized unified solution benefits and reduced complexity for customers .

What Went Wrong

  • Total revenue declined 3% YoY due to lower hardware sales and one-time software/services revenue; Retail adjusted EBITDA fell 17% YoY on lower revenue and customer adjustments tied to prior-year delayed software implementations (now resolved) .
  • Litigation costs were a notable non-GAAP adjustment ($22M in Q3) alongside restructuring ($47M) and strategic initiatives ($4M), elevating adjusted measures relative to GAAP .
  • Cash flow remained pressured: YTD operating cash flow was $(270)M with adjusted FCF-unrestricted YTD at $(27)M; transformation and restructuring cash outflows now expected ~$100M for FY25 .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$617 $666 $684
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.09 $0.19 $0.31
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$75 $95 $125
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)12.2% 14.3% 18.3%
Gross Margin (%)21.9% 23.0% 24.3%
Operating Margin (%)(3.2)% 2.1% 2.2%
Recurring Revenue ($USD Millions)$407 $422 $425
Non-Recurring Revenue ($USD Millions)$210 $244 $259

Segment performance:

SegmentQ1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q2 2025 Revenue ($M)Q3 2025 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M, %)Q2 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M, %)Q3 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M, %)
Retail$420 $454 $467 $65, 15.5% $81, 17.8% $90, 19.3%
Restaurants$191 $205 $210 $59, 30.9% $68, 33.2% $74, 35.2%

KPIs and cash metrics:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
ARR ($USD Billions)$1.62 $1.68 $1.70
Software ARR ($USD Millions)$775 $799 $798
Platform Sites>77k >78k 78k (+12% YoY)
Payment Sites~8k 8k ~8.5k (+3% YoY)
Net Debt ($USD Millions)$816 (Adj.) $829 $823
3Q Adjusted FCF-Unrestricted ($M)(53) 13 19

Consensus vs actual:

MetricConsensus Q3 2025Actual Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$668.7*$684
Primary EPS ($)$0.21*$0.31
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$120.1*$125

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (as of Q2)Current Guidance (Q3)Change
Total Revenue ($B)FY 2025$2.575 – $2.650 $2.650 – $2.670 Raised
Software & Services Revenue ($B)FY 2025$1.995 – $2.020 $1.980 – $1.990 Lowered
Hardware Revenue ($M)FY 2025$580 – $630 $670 – $680 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$420 – $445 $420 – $435 Narrowed lower
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025$0.75 – $0.80 $0.85 – $0.90 Raised
Adjusted FCF-Unrestricted ($M)FY 2025$170 – $190 $170 – $175 Narrowed lower

Notes: Outlook assumes gross hardware recognition for FY25 and includes the current estimated impact of U.S. trade tariffs with mitigating actions .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2, Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Hardware ODM transition (Ennoconn)Transition noted and expected later in year; outlook to update upon net hardware recognition Phased transition begins January; ~90-day timeline; gross recognition in Q1, net basis by Q2 Execution phase commencing
Payments expansion & TAMPlatform payments scale; recurring growth; broadening capabilities Direct WEX/Corpay partnerships; unified POS+payments pitch; U.S. payments TAM ~$1.3T discussed Accelerating with partnerships
Pricing escalators in renewalsOngoing modernization; value-aligned pricing implied Formal introduction of escalators across renewals (retail ~5-year; restaurant ~3-year cycles) Monetization of installed base
AI and microservices platform (VCP)Platform-led SaaS emphasis; modernization underway AI-enabled development integrated into build/deploy; three grocery brands live; rapid integration demos Product velocity increasing
Customer wins (enterprise logos)Share repurchases; platform signings Chipotle 6-year exclusive; H-E-B loyalty; regional grocery alliance; Marco’s Pizza expansion Strengthening pipeline
Tariffs/macro in guidanceImpact included with mitigations Reiterated in FY25 outlook assumptions Managed within outlook
Restructuring/TSAsTSAs and transformation costs ongoing Exited remaining TSAs with NCR Atleos, winding down others; FY25 transformation cash outflows ~$100M Winding down, costs near-term elevated

Management Commentary

  • “NCR Voyix is the platform-powered leader serving retail and restaurants, and we will continue to scale our capabilities, execute with discipline, and deliver sustainable long-term value.” — Jim Kelly, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBIT of $125M increased 32% as margin expanded 490 bps to 18.3%… driven by larger-than-anticipated hardware margins and the previously announced cost actions.” — Brian Webb-Walsh, CFO .
  • “We have now paired… extensive application library with AI-enabled development, significantly accelerating the time to market for our microservices architecture and new platform capabilities.” — Nick East, CPO .
  • “A new six-year exclusive agreement with Chipotle… first to implement our Aloha next-generation point-of-sale… across 4,000 restaurants worldwide.” — Jim Kelly, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pricing escalators: Historically absent or inconsistently billed; now being implemented on renewals (retail ~5 years, restaurant ~3 years), expected to incrementally lift revenue/earnings over time .
  • Payments TAM and strategy: Unified POS+payments solution reduces integration friction; WEX/Corpay expands commercial fuel capabilities; discussed U.S. payments TAM around $1.3T opportunity .
  • ODM transition: Phased transfer starting early January (~90 days), designed for zero customer impact; gross hardware recognition in Q1 then net basis by Q2 .
  • Customer demand backdrop: Retail/restaurant customers are investing in unified commerce, loyalty, and automation to drive speed, efficiency, and consumer engagement despite cost pressures .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 beats: revenue $684M vs $668.7M*, EPS $0.31 vs $0.21*, adjusted EBITDA $125M vs $120.1M* .
  • FY25 consensus EPS $0.87* sits within updated guidance $0.85–$0.90, implying modest upward pressure on estimates near the mid-to-high end following raised outlook .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat with mix shift: Strong recurring growth and margin expansion drove an EPS and revenue beat; EBITDA outperformed, supported by hardware margin upside and cost actions .
  • Guidance reset skewed bullish: FY25 revenue and EPS raised, hardware outlook increased; EBITDA/FCF narrowed, signaling disciplined execution amid tariff and transformation dynamics .
  • Strategic proof points: Chipotle’s six-year exclusive and enterprise wins (H-E-B, grocery alliance, Marco’s) validate VCP/AI roadmap and unified commerce thesis .
  • Payments monetization inflecting: WEX/Corpay partnerships and unified POS+payments approach broaden TAM and support recurring revenue durability .
  • Watch near-term cash and adjustments: Elevated restructuring/litigation adjustments and transformation cash outflows (~$100M FY25) temper near-term FCF despite improving quarterly trends .
  • Retail margin trajectory improving sequentially: Despite YoY pressure, retail margins improved Q/Q; continued platform ramp and customer adjustments resolved support recovery .
  • Trading setup: Narrative catalysts include raised EPS outlook, expanding margins, payments TAM unlock, and high-profile Chipotle deployment; risks include execution of ODM transition and sustained cash conversion .