Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue declined to $8.98B, driven by weaker Studios content and linear advertising; Adjusted EBITDA was $2.11B, up 4% ex-FX YoY, while net loss improved to $(0.45)B .
- Streaming delivered 5.3M net subscriber adds to 122.3M, with Adjusted EBITDA of $0.34B; Global Linear Networks remained the profit engine (Adj. EBITDA $1.79B) despite audience declines; Studios profits improved sequentially on cost reductions .
- Against S&P Global consensus, WBD missed Q1 2025 revenue ($9.59B* est vs $8.98B actual) and EPS (−$0.12* est vs −$0.18 actual); note consensus “EBITDA” is not comparable to WBD’s Adjusted EBITDA ($2.11B) and showed an apparent miss on the S&P EBITDA definition* .
- Guidance and narrative catalysts: management reiterated Streaming Adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.3B in 2025 and a path to 150M+ subscribers by end-2026; near-term linear advertising headwind expected in Q2 (≈−2% YoY) from sports mix; 2025 sports rights cost overlap ≈$300M, reversing in 2026 .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Streaming momentum: “Over the last 12 months, we have gained more than 22 million subscribers… and delivered $339 million in EBITDA. We are firmly on track to deliver at least $1.3 billion of EBITDA in 2025” — CEO David Zaslav .
- Studios profitability improved: Studios Adjusted EBITDA rose to $259M (+63% ex-FX YoY) with material reductions in costs, even with lighter theatrical slate .
- Balance sheet progress: WBD repaid $2.2B of debt; ended Q1 with $4.0B cash and 3.8x net leverage; average debt cost 4.7% and maturity 13.9 years .
What Went Wrong
- Content revenue down 25% ex-FX YoY on tough comps (Dune: Part Two, Godzilla x Kong, Wonka/Aquaman in prior periods) and no Games releases; total revenue down 9% ex-FX YoY .
- Linear pressures: domestic linear audience declined 27%, advertising down 11% ex-FX in Global Linear Networks; distribution fell on subscriber declines .
- ARPU declined: global streaming ARPU fell 9% ex-FX to $7.11 on mix shift to lower-ARPU international, and domestic ARPU fell 5% to $11.15 on broader wholesale distribution of Max Basic with Ads .
Financial Results
Values retrieved from S&P Global* (for margin)
Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global*
Note: S&P Global “EBITDA Consensus Mean” ($2.08B*) is not directly comparable to WBD’s non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA ($2.11B) . Consensus “actual EBITDA” reported by S&P was $1.77B*; use caution given definitional differences.*
Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs (Streaming)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “It’s not how much, it’s how good… our commitment to high-quality storytelling… shows up in our bottom line.” — David Zaslav, CEO .
- “We are firmly on track to deliver at least $1.3 billion of [Streaming] EBITDA in 2025… and to surpass our 150 million subscriber goal by the end of next year.” — David Zaslav .
- “Sports is a rental business. For us, Superman, Batman, DC, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings… we own those assets.” — David Zaslav .
- “Okay to model a roughly $300 million cost increase in 2025 [sports rights overlap]… Q2 big part; improvement starts in Q4; very significant step down in 2026.” — Gunnar Wiedenfels, CFO .
- “We’re experimenting with sports/news models globally… balancing acquisition and engagement with profitability.” — JB Perrette, CEO Global Streaming & Games .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital structure/optionality: Management completed reorg to enhance flexibility and transparency; avoids speculating on future capital structures but underscores readiness for opportunities .
- Extra member add-on & password sharing: U.S. retail-only initial rollout; benefits ramp over 12–18 months as messaging gets firmer and globalizes into 2026 .
- Linear advertising & upfronts: Q2 tracking in line with Q1 (adjusted for sports mix); upfronts slower but scatter stronger; cost actions taken post-tariffs; corporate costs trending lower YoY .
- Sports portfolio economics: 2025 overlap adds ≈$300M cost; affiliate renewals successful even without NBA; 2026 net expense “few hundred million” lower vs 2025 .
- ARPU drivers: ad-lite expansion, pricing, password-sharing controls, sports upsell; manage to LTV/SAC over ARPU optics .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 revenue and EPS missed S&P Global consensus (Revenue $9.59B* est vs $8.98B actual; EPS −$0.12* est vs −$0.18 actual) .
- EBITDA comparability: WBD reports non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of $2.11B ; S&P Global’s “EBITDA” consensus/actual uses a different definition and showed $2.08B* est and $1.77B* actual — use caution when comparing to WBD’s Adjusted EBITDA.*
- Implications: Consensus likely revises linear advertising and Studios trajectories to reflect continued ARPU pressure (mix) and content timing; Streaming trajectory remains positive given reiterated ≥$1.3B 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and multi-lever growth .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Streaming is the growth engine: 5.3M net adds and $339M Adjusted EBITDA in Q1; ≥$1.3B 2025 target reaffirmed; watch globalization pace, ad monetization, and password-sharing enforcement as catalysts .
- Linear remains cash generative but pressured: expect Q2 ad headwind (≈−2% YoY) and higher sports costs; affiliate rate increases secured, with improved structures supporting ecosystem longevity .
- Studios profitability improving: cost discipline and TV strength drove +63% ex-FX EBITDA; slate and licensing availability should support sequential improvement through 2025 .
- 2025 is a transition year for sports costs; 2026 should benefit materially from NBA exit, delivering a “few hundred million” expense improvement vs 2025 .
- Balance sheet de-risking continues: $2.2B debt repaid in Q1; 3.8x net leverage; reiterated 2.5–3x gross leverage target — ongoing FCF prioritization to debt reduction .
- Near-term stock narrative hinges on: execution on streaming ARPU levers, stability in linear ad trends, visibility to Studios cadence, and delivery on sports cost inflection into 2026 .
- Valuation catalysts: incremental hard bundles, content tentpoles (Superman), ad-lite scaling across >45 markets, and improved licensing availability can drive estimate revisions upward in H2’25/H1’26 .
Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global* where marked with an asterisk.