Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong free cash flow generation and deleveraging efforts: Warner Bros. Discovery generated $6.2 billion in free cash flow in 2023, achieving a 60% conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow. The company paid down $5.4 billion of debt during the year, reducing net leverage to 3.9x EBITDA. They are committed to further deleveraging in 2024, with expectations of lowering interest expense, capital expenditures, and restructuring costs.
- Positive momentum in advertising revenue: The company is seeing improvements in advertising across both U.S. and international markets. Domestic ad sales are pacing meaningfully better in Q1, benefiting from strong upfront deals and improving ratings trends. Internationally, key markets like Poland and Italy are performing well, with Italy being the fastest-growing group in that market.
- Significant growth potential from international expansion of Max: Warner Bros. Discovery plans to launch Max in new international markets, aiming to double its addressable market over the next 24 months. Launches are planned in Latin America next week, Europe starting in the second quarter with France and Belgium, and Asia and Australasia likely in 2025 . This international rollout is expected to be a huge tailwind for subscriber and revenue growth.
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Free Cash Flow Guidance
Q: What's the outlook for free cash flow this year?
A: While we won't provide specific guidance, last year's $6.2 billion included a $1 billion strike benefit that will reverse in 2024. We expect interest expense, CapEx, and restructuring expenses to decline, and we're committed to maintaining a 60% cash conversion rate. Our focus remains on deleveraging and generating free cash flow. -
EBITDA Growth and Segments
Q: Any color on EBITDA growth by segment?
A: In Studios, it's a hit-driven business with variability. For DTC, we're committed to maintaining profitability while fueling profitable top-line growth, aiming for $1 billion EBITDA in 2025. In Linear, trends are improving, but we won't make long-term projections. We'll continue to be transparent about what we're seeing. -
Advertising Outlook
Q: Can you elaborate on advertising strength and outlook?
A: We've seen improvements into Q1 across the board. In the U.S., improving ratings and upfront deals are kicking in. Streaming advertising is growing at over 50%. Internationally, key markets like Poland and Italy are performing well. While we can't predict the rest of the year, we're in a much better place now. -
DTC International Expansion
Q: What's the plan for Max's international rollout?
A: We're excited to launch in new markets starting in 2024, including France and Belgium in Q2, with Asia and Australasia likely in 2025. This expansion targets the other half of our total addressable market and is a huge tailwind for subscriber and revenue growth over the next 24 months. -
NBA Rights Negotiations
Q: How will you make NBA rights financially viable?
A: While we're in exclusive discussions, we approach sports rights by knowing exactly what value we assign and staying disciplined. We expect some inflation in costs but will optimize returns. We've had a strong partnership with the NBA for 40 years and hope to continue it positively. -
New Sports Streaming Venture
Q: Details on the new skinny sports bundle?
A: We're targeting the over 60 million U.S. households not in traditional cable. The new app-based product lets fans watch all major sports playoffs without worrying about channels. It's designed for younger consumers and meets strong demand without accelerating cord-cutting. We're partnering with Disney and Fox and will be aggressive in marketing it. -
Capital Allocation Strategy
Q: How will you allocate capital with increased free cash flow?
A: We're focused on deleveraging the company to reach our 2.5 to 3x leverage target. We've invested heavily in our businesses, including hundreds of millions into studio operations. While we have the option to look at other assets, it's a high bar, and we prefer to invest in our strong content portfolio and storytelling capabilities. -
Third-Party Content Sales
Q: What's your approach to selling content to third parties?
A: We're open to serving both our platforms and third parties, evaluating deals case by case. We sell content only co-exclusively, retaining it on Max. We've resumed aggressive activity in Warner Bros. Television, with over 100 series, and are monetizing our vast library while keeping core branded programs in-house. -
Rebundling and Partnerships
Q: Is rebundling inevitable in streaming?
A: We believe rebundling makes sense to improve the consumer experience, which is currently cluttered. It could happen through intermediaries like Apple, Amazon, or Roku, or we could do it ourselves. Bundling Max with services like Netflix can provide a meaningful experience, and our sports venture exemplifies a more fluid offering. -
Studios Strategic Initiatives
Q: When will Studio strategies impact finances?
A: After two challenging years, we expect much better performance this year with a compelling lineup, including "The Watchers," "Beetlejuice," "Joker 2," and DC projects like "Superman" and "Supergirl." We're optimistic about significant upside in the next two years as we balance beloved brands with new content like "Barbie."
Research analysts covering Warner Bros. Discovery.