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Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered higher volumes and profitability: revenue rose to $928.5M, diluted EPS to $0.85, and Adjusted EBITDA to $590.7M, aided by broad throughput growth and a $9.2M favorable revenue recognition adjustment on cost-of-service contracts .
- Sequential momentum: natural-gas, crude/NGLs, and produced water throughputs increased 4%, 6%, and 8% respectively vs. Q3, lifting Adjusted Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA quarter-over-quarter .
- 2025 outlook and capital return reset: WES issued FY25 guidance (Adj. EBITDA $2.35–$2.55B; FCF $1.275–$1.475B) and plans to raise the quarterly Base Distribution to $0.910 while retiring the Enhanced Distribution to focus on sustainable base growth (mid-to-low single digits) .
- Strategic catalyst: sanctioned the 42-mile, 30-inch Pathfinder produced-water pipeline (>800 MBbl/d) and expanded water system, anchored by new long-term Oxy agreements with MVCs; ~ $400–$450M to be invested over 24 months, in service by Jan 1, 2027 .
- Consensus estimates: S&P Global consensus data were unavailable at the time of analysis; therefore, beat/miss vs. estimates cannot be quantified (see Estimates Context).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Volume growth and margin expansion: sequential gains across all three product lines lifted Adjusted Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA; positive $9.2M cumulative revenue recognition on cost-of-service contracts also helped .
- Strategic water platform and commercial de-risking: Pathfinder sanctioned and Oxy amendments (long-term produced-water capacity with MVCs; DJ gas MVC extensions) enhance flow assurance and underpin long-term growth; “first-of-its-kind” midstream-style water solution .
- Capital allocation clarity and balance sheet: leverage ~3x achieved in 2024; plan to grow Base Distribution and retire Enhanced Distribution, aligning capital to organic growth and bolt-ons .
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What Went Wrong
- Free cash flow after distributions was negative in Q4 (-$31.6M), reflecting payout timing despite strong operating cash flow .
- Equity income declined YoY ($28.2M in Q4’24 vs. $36.1M in Q4’23), tempering reported results against the prior-year quarter .
- Near-term water margin headwind: management expects a slight decrease in produced-water per-barrel adjusted gross margin in Q1’25 due to the new Oxy amendment and cost-of-service redetermination (effective Jan 1) .
Financial Results
High-level P&L and margin (YoY and QoQ)
Non-GAAP and Cash Flow (QoQ)
Segment and throughput detail (QoQ)
KPI per-unit margins (QoQ)
Context: Q4 crude/NGL per-barrel adjusted gross margin rose ~$0.12 QoQ due to favorable revenue recognition and equity distribution timing; management expects water per-barrel adjusted gross margin to decrease slightly in Q1’25 due to contract amendments .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2024 was a successful year for WES as we achieved double-digit throughput growth across all three product lines and grew both Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow meaningfully year-over-year.” — Oscar Brown, CEO .
- “The financial outlook for WES remains strong as we transition into 2025… we expect Adjusted EBITDA to increase by approximately 5-percent at the midpoint relative to 2024.” — Kristen Shults, CFO .
- “We intend to recommend a Base Distribution increase of $0.035 per unit to $0.91 per unit… and retire the Enhanced Distribution concept to further simplify our capital allocation framework.” — Kristen Shults, CFO .
- “We are excited to provide an innovative midstream solution via the Pathfinder pipeline… anchored by a new long-term produced-water agreement with Occidental… supported by corresponding minimum-volume commitments.” — Oscar Brown, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Distribution growth framework: Management set a mid-to-low single-digit annual Base Distribution growth target aligned to EBITDA and FCF outlook; Enhanced Distribution retired to prioritize organic projects and bolt-ons .
- Pathfinder returns and fill: Initial Oxy commitment supports attractive midstream-centric returns; upsized pipe lowers unit cost and positions WES to onboard additional producers to accrete returns over time .
- Buybacks vs. growth: New $250M authorization is “good housekeeping”; growth projects and distribution growth take priority near term unless market dislocation creates a compelling opportunity .
- PRB investment cadence: ~30% of 2025 capex to PRB; natural gas throughput expected to grow mid-teens in 2026 as new facilities and customer plans mature .
- Water margins near term: Produced-water per-barrel adjusted gross margin expected to decrease slightly in Q1’25 due to Oxy amendment and cost-of-service redetermination effective Jan 1 .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable due to data access limits at the time of analysis; as a result, we cannot quantify WES’s Q4 2024 beat/miss vs. Street for Revenue, EBITDA, or EPS. Investors should note Q4 fundamentals strengthened sequentially (revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, per-barrel crude/NGL margin), with 2025 guidance implying mid-single-digit EBITDA growth at the midpoint .
- Where possible, we anchored comparisons to company-reported GAAP and non-GAAP metrics and call commentary.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential acceleration: Q4 revenue (+5% QoQ), Adjusted EBITDA (+4% QoQ), and across-the-board throughput growth point to healthy exit velocity into 2025 .
- Structural water growth: Pathfinder plus Oxy MVCs create a durable, capital-efficient platform with line-of-sight to incremental producer volumes; this underpins medium-term growth and de-risks flow assurance in the Delaware .
- Distribution visibility: Plan to raise the quarterly Base Distribution to $0.910 and target mid-to-low single-digit annual base growth; Enhanced Distribution retired, simplifying the story and focusing on compounding base payouts .
- 2025 guide sets a base: Adj. EBITDA $2.35–$2.55B and FCF $1.275–$1.475B with disciplined capex ($625–$775M); about half of capex to Delaware, ~30% to PRB (growth vector into 2026) .
- Near-term watch items: Q1’25 produced-water per-barrel margin expected to dip slightly on contract resets; monitor O&M seasonality and equity income trends .
- Balance sheet capacity intact: ~3x leverage achieved in 2024; flexibility to fund organic projects/bolt-ons while growing base distributions .
- Trading setup: Lacking consensus tape, the narrative skew is positive on water platform monetization and clearer capital return policy; path to estimate revisions likely hinges on 2025 volume ramps (Delaware, PRB, Utah) and timing of onboarding incremental water volumes (Pathfinder) .
Supporting Detail and Prior-Quarter Context
- Q3 2024 snapshot: Revenue $883.4M; Adjusted EBITDA $566.9M; FCF $365.1M; noted headwinds from lower NGL recoveries/prices and lower equity income; guided to stronger Q4 on throughput and lower O&M .
- Q2 2024 snapshot: Revenue $905.6M; Adjusted EBITDA $578.1M; FCF $424.8M; executed DJ (P66) and Uinta (Kinder/Williams) contracts supporting 2025+ utilization .
- Q4 2024 distribution: $0.875 per unit (paid Feb 14, 2025) prior to planned Q1’25 increase .
Notes: All GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, operating statistics, and guidance figures are sourced from company filings and earnings materials. Non-GAAP definitions and reconciliations are provided in the company’s releases .