WI
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC (WGO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2025 delivered topline growth and margin improvement with net revenues of $777.3M (+7.8% y/y), gross margin 12.8%, GAAP diluted EPS $0.49 and adjusted EPS $0.71; operating cash flow was strong at $181.4M, and net leverage improved to 3.1x from 4.8x in Q3 .
- Results exceeded Wall Street consensus: adjusted EPS beat by $0.18 and revenue beat by $50.9M; 12 estimates underpinned the consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- FY2026 guidance set at consolidated net revenues of $2.75–$2.95B, reported EPS $1.25–$1.95, and adjusted EPS $2.00–$2.70; management expects back-half weighted improvement and motorhome operating margin to move to low-single digits in FY2026 from -0.6% in FY2025 .
- Stock reaction drivers: disciplined production and inventory management, motorhome footprint consolidation, strong Grand Design Motorized momentum, and Barletta share gains, partially offset by continued competitive discounts and marine softness cited by management .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Favorable mix and targeted price increases drove revenue growth and improved profitability; adjusted EBITDA rose 33.1% y/y to $38.2M, and adjusted EPS rose 154% y/y to $0.71 .
- Strong operational execution and efficiency actions yielded $181.4M operating cash flow and improved net leverage to 3.1x; CEO highlighted diversified portfolio strength across brands .
- Segment wins: Towable operating margin expanded 210 bps to 7.0%; Marine swung to positive operating margin (7.1%) on pricing and prior-year impairment normalization; Newmar and Grand Design gained share in key segments .
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What Went Wrong
- Gross margin fell 30 bps y/y to 12.8%, pressured by costs associated with transforming Winnebago-branded businesses and higher discounts/allowances in motorhomes .
- Motorhome operating income turned negative (-$0.3M; margin -0.1%) despite double-digit revenue growth, reflecting transformation costs and higher discounts and allowances .
- Management noted continued marine retail softness industry-wide and elevated warranty experience in Towables; Q&A emphasized industry destocking persisted through 2025 .
Financial Results
vs Estimates (Q4 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)
KPIs (Q4 2025)
Guidance Changes
Note: No specific OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate guidance provided; management highlighted back-half weighted cadence and net leverage target ~2x by FY2026 year-end .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We drove stronger revenue, improved profitability, gained share in key segments and delivered solid operating cash flow and an improved leverage position… diversified product portfolio… offset operating margin pressure stemming from the ongoing turnaround of our Winnebago-branded businesses.” – CEO Michael Happe .
- “We took decisive action in Q4 to dramatically reduce production schedules and consolidate the brand’s manufacturing footprint by closing two of our four Winnebago motorhome manufacturing locations… drove significant cash conversion in the quarter.” – CFO Bryan Hughes .
- “We expect consolidated net revenues $2.75–$2.95B, reported EPS $1.25–$1.95, adjusted EPS $2–$2.70… midpoint up 41% vs FY2025.” – CFO Bryan Hughes .
- “We expect operating income margin in the motorhome RV segment to improve to low single digits for fiscal 2026 from negative 0.6% in fiscal 2025.” – CFO Bryan Hughes .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariff impact in guidance: Management included full anticipated tariff impact in FY2026 guidance; no specific dollar quantification provided; mitigation continues via pricing and sourcing adjustments .
- Cadence: Expect year-over-year improvement each quarter, with majority of upside in back-half; assumes flattish retail/wholesale environment .
- Wholesale/retail modeling: Management sees FY2026 wholesale ~330k units; striving for ~2x inventory turns, with selective undershipping to maintain discipline .
- Market share dynamics: Pressure in Class B vans and fifth wheels due to competition and price points; plans to stabilize and grow share via Grand Design Motorized and Winnebago Towables; strong Open House orders .
- Warranty: Expect consistent rates; motorhome warranty improved y/y; towable/marine slightly elevated; warranty includes goodwill investments to support customer experience (e.g., holiday hotline) .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2025 beat vs consensus: Adjusted/Primary EPS $0.71 vs $0.532 consensus (+$0.18), revenue $777.3M vs $726.4M consensus (+$50.9M); 12 estimates for each. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Implications: Estimate revisions likely upward for FY2026 on margin recapture, Grand Design momentum, and improved leverage; caution around marine softness and tariffs may temper top-line revisions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution-driven improvement: Cost actions and footprint consolidation underpinned cash conversion and leverage reduction; expect margin recapture to continue in FY2026, especially in motorhomes .
- Portfolio strength offsets mix/incentives: Grand Design Motorized, Newmar, and Towables affordability drove resilience; pricing targeted but incentives to normalize, supporting ASPs and margins .
- Discipline remains central: Management will align production with retail demand, aiming for ~2x turns; selective undershipping may support channel health and profitability .
- Guidance credible but macro-sensitive: FY2026 outlook assumes flat industry volumes; upside hinges on internal initiatives; downside risks include tariffs and marine retail softness .
- Cash generation and capital allocation: Strong Q4 operating cash flow; dividend raised to $0.35; focus on reaching ~2x net leverage by FY2026 year-end .
- Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include evidence of motorhome margin improvement and continued Lineage momentum; monitor tariff headlines and marine retail trends for volatility .
Footnote: Values retrieved from S&P Global.