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WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (WH)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered $341M net revenues, $168M adjusted EBITDA, $85M net income, $1.08 diluted EPS and $1.04 adjusted EPS; global RevPAR rose 5% cc, U.S. RevPAR +5% (≈+4% ex-hurricane), and system rooms grew 4% YoY; pipeline hit a record 252k rooms; dividend raised 8% to $0.41 .
  • Management highlighted accelerating U.S. weekday demand tied to infrastructure projects and data center construction; U.S. RevPAR +5.3% with ~140 bps hurricane lift; excluding that, RevPAR +3.9%; management guides continued weekday outperformance in 2025 .
  • Royalty rate expansion and ancillary revenue acceleration are key earnings drivers: global average royalty rate up 19 bps YoY in Q4; Barclays co-brand renewal and launch of a first-of-its-kind debit card underpin low-teens ancillary revenue growth in 2025 (~$35M incremental), above 2024’s 6% growth .
  • 2025 outlook: rooms +3.6–4.6%, global RevPAR +2–3% cc, fee-related & other revenue $1.49–$1.51B, adjusted EBITDA $745–$755M, adjusted EPS $4.66–$4.78; marketing fund to break even; Board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.41 starting Q1 2025 .
  • Consensus estimate comparisons (EPS/revenue/EBITDA) via S&P Global were unavailable at request time; as a result, we cannot assess beats/misses vs Street this quarter.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record development momentum: pipeline reached ~252k rooms (+5% YoY), 18th consecutive sequential increase; CEO: “record quarter-of-a-million rooms…with significant FeePAR premiums” .
  • Extended-stay execution: ECHO Suites openings expanding; developers report faster-than-expected ramp in ADR and extended-stay occupancy; CFO/CEO reiterated extended-stay now ~1/3 of U.S. pipeline across ECHO/Hawthorn/WaterWalk/Residences .
  • Ancillary monetization: Barclays co-brand renewal and a new debit card expected to drive low-teens ancillary revenue growth in 2025 (~$35M incremental); launch targeted by peak summer season .

What Went Wrong

  • China softness: Q4 China RevPAR -11% YoY on a 10% ADR decline; management expects APAC to accelerate in 2025 but China remains a drag near term .
  • Interest expense headwind: higher interest expense was a partial offset to improved EBITDA in Q4 and FY; net income growth benefitted from tax and FX in hyperinflation countries offsetting some headwinds .
  • Marketing fund variability: Q4 had a $4M unfavorable swing vs Q4’23; full-year 2024 had $10M unfavorable variability vs 2023; 2025 expected to breakeven but quarterly timing will distort comparisons .

Financial Results

Q4 snapshot vs prior quarter and prior year (reported)

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Revenues ($M)$321 $396 $341
Fee-related & Other Revenues ($M)$320 $394 $341
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$154 $208 $168
Net Income ($M)$50 $102 $85
Diluted EPS ($)$0.60 $1.29 $1.08
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.91 $1.39 $1.04

Profitability/royalty rate indicators

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Avg Royalty Rate – U.S. (%)4.6% 4.8%
Avg Royalty Rate – International (%)2.3% 2.6%
Avg Royalty Rate – Global (%)3.8% 4.0%

Segment EBITDA trend (Adjusted)

Segment Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Hotel Franchising$195 $224 $189
Corporate$(17) $(16) $(21)
Total Company$178 $208 $168

KPI trends (RevPAR) and system size

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Global RevPAR ($)$45.99 $49.33 $40.01
U.S. RevPAR ($)$55.44 $57.98 $46.41
International RevPAR ($)$34.11 $38.60 $32.17

Q4 2024 System & Balance Sheet KPIs

KPIQ4 2024
Global Rooms903,000
U.S. Rooms501,800
International Rooms401,200
Retention Rate95.7%
Development Pipeline Rooms252,000
Net Debt Leverage3.4x
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$103
Total Liquidity (Approx.)~$765M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Rooms Growth (YoY)FY 2025n/a3.6%–4.6% New
Global RevPAR Growth (cc)FY 2025n/a2%–3% (0.5%–1.5% reported) New
Fee-related & Other RevenuesFY 2025n/a$1.49–$1.51B New
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025n/a$745–$755M New
Adjusted Net IncomeFY 2025n/a$369–$379M New
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025n/a$4.66–$4.78 New
Free Cash Flow ConversionFY 2025n/a57%–60% New
Marketing FundFY 2025Break-even expectationBreak-even; quarterly timing effects Maintained
D&A ExpenseFY 2025n/a$39–$41M (excl. ~$27M intangibles) New
Interest Expense (net)FY 2025n/a$134–$136M New
Effective Tax RateFY 2025n/a~25% New
Diluted SharesFY 2025n/a79.2M (excl. future buybacks) New
CapexFY 2025n/a$40–$45M New
Development Advance NotesFY 2025n/a~ $110M New
Dividend per Share (Quarterly)Q1 2025$0.38 (2024) $0.41 (declared Mar 4, 2025) Raised 8%

Prior 2024 outlook (for context): FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA guided to $690–$700M, Adjusted EPS $4.22–$4.34 as of Oct 23, 2024 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2’24 and Q3’24)Current Period (Q4’24)Trend
AI/Technology & DirectRolled out Wyndham Connect; 2,000 hotels; AI messaging; monthly upsell monetization ~$1,400; investing in cloud stack (Salesforce/Sabre/Oracle/Amazon/Adobe) Wyndham Connect scaled to 4,000+ hotels; CEO cites AI-driven automation and monetization; debit card to integrate in digital ecosystem by peak summer Improving
Infrastructure/Data Center DemandQ2 noted early infrastructure capture and weekday share gains; oil & gas/state spend markets outperformed U.S. weekday RevPAR outperformance; 2,200 project starts; data center adjacency delivering ~500 bps RevPAR premium at dozens of hotels Improving
Extended Stay/ECHOFirst ECHO opened (Spartanburg) with fast ramp; pipeline ~33k rooms; developers positive ECHO openings expanding; ADR and extended-stay occupancy ahead of expectations; brand a sizable piece of the U.S. pipeline Improving
Royalty Rate ExpansionStrategy to sign higher FeePAR deals; royalty rate +5 bps in H1; long-term +15 bps target by 2026 Q4 average royalty rate up 15–31 bps by region; tracking slightly ahead of schedule on 3-year plan Improving
ChinaQ3 APAC -7% (sequentially improving); pipeline strong under direct franchising Q4 China RevPAR -11% on ADR -10%; management optimistic on recovery trajectory Mixed
Ancillary RevenuesCredit card/partnerships drove growth; Business card volumes +70%; 8% FY growth outlook Barclays renewal and U.S. debit card launch; low-teens ancillary growth in 2025 (~$35M incremental) Improving
Marketing FundQ3: expected H2 outperformance to offset H1; full-year ~breakeven Q4: -$4M YoY variability; FY -$10M vs 2023; 2025 targeted breakeven but quarterly timing persists Stable

Management Commentary

  • CEO on growth drivers and pipeline: “record…quarter-of-a-million rooms that will open in the coming years with significant FeePAR premiums…coupled with improving customer demand…lays a solid foundation for sustained momentum” .
  • CEO on U.S. demand mix: “strong weekday performance driven by infrastructure bookings…dozens of hotels within a 10-mile radius of the top 10 data center projects…year-over-year Q4 RevPAR premium of nearly 500 bps” .
  • CFO on 2025 build: “Fee-related and other revenues…$1.49B–$1.51B…Adjusted EBITDA…$745M–$755M…Adjusted diluted EPS…$4.66–$4.78…diluted share count 79.2M” .
  • CFO on ancillary revenue: “expect ancillary revenue growth to be in the low-teens range in 2025…implies about $35M of incremental revenue…almost double our prior expectation…in part due to the early renewal of the Barclays Card” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Development/rooms growth: 2025 net room growth acceleration expected; larger share from new construction as ECHO ramps; U.S. to improve vs 2024; retention could improve ~30 bps at high end .
  • Key money returns: <20% of additions use key money; deals with key money carry ~40% FeePAR premium; deployment disciplined and largely U.S. midscale+; benefits improve as rates decline .
  • Royalty rates: Tracking slightly ahead of plan; aiming for ~15 bps improvement over 3 years through 2026 .
  • Hurricane impacts: 140 bps Q4 benefit; excluded from 2025 RevPAR build; 2025 guide includes ~30 bps headwind vs hurricane-aided comp .
  • China outlook: Direct franchising pipeline strong; team optimistic on openings and execution; 16% net room growth in China direct system noted .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) but the data was unavailable at request time due to provider rate limits. Consequently, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Street for this quarter. If needed, we can refresh and add a beats/misses table once S&P Global data becomes accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Asset-light fee engine compounding: royalty rate expansion (+19 bps global in Q4) and high-FeePAR development (pipeline 252k) support mid- to high-single-digit EBITDA growth even in soft RevPAR environments .
  • Structural ancillary growth: renewed Barclays co-brand plus new debit card should lift ancillary revenue growth to low-teens in 2025 (~$35M incremental), a meaningful positive mix to EBITDA quality .
  • 2025 setup: rooms +3.6–4.6%, RevPAR +2–3% cc, EBITDA $745–$755M with marketing fund at breakeven; quarterly fund timing will add noise—model for back-half catch-up .
  • Demand catalysts: infrastructure and data centers are driving weekday gains and pricing power near key projects; management sees continued outperformance in these clusters .
  • Watch China and comps: China ADR/RevPAR remains a headwind (-11% RevPAR in Q4); hurricane aid flatters U.S. Q4 comps—Q4’25 will lap a tougher base .
  • Capital returns intact: dividend up 8% to $0.41; net leverage 3.4x within target range; room for disciplined key money and shareholder returns alongside growth investments .
  • Execution credibility: 2024 comparable adjusted EBITDA up ~7% with 200 bps margin expansion; management reaffirmed ~8.5% adjusted EBITDA CAGR 2024–2026 trajectory .

Appendix: Additional Context from Prior Quarters

  • Q3 2024: net revenues $396M; adjusted EBITDA $208M; adjusted EPS $1.39; pipeline 248k rooms; ancillary revenues +8% YoY; U.S. RevPAR -1% cc, International +7% cc .
  • Q2 2024: fee-related & other revenues $366M; adjusted EBITDA $178M; adjusted EPS $1.13 comparable; early infrastructure capture and Wyndham Connect monetization underway .

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