Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $1.92M, down sequentially from Q3 ($2.51M) and below S&P Global consensus ($3.07M); EPS was -$0.94, materially better than consensus (-$5.31), reflecting cost actions and lower operating expenses. Bold miss on revenue, bold beat on EPS. * *
Management withheld formal 2025 guidance, citing regulatory uncertainty (California waiver withdrawal, federal fleet procurement pause) and slower EV adoption; focus remains on extending runway, reducing costs, and ramping W56 deliveries.
Strategic progress in Q4: FMVSS/HVIP certification for W56 208" extended wheelbase, purchase orders from parcel ISPs, and GSA listing to enable federal procurement; groundwork laid for Canada market entry (Transport Canada approval announced in Feb 2025).
Operational data points reinforce product viability: W56 demonstrated 27–31 MPGe in road tests, 93–97% uptime during peak season, and 154,000 packages delivered via “Stables by Workhorse,” bolstering medium-term adoption narrative.
Liquidity remains tight but managed: year-end working capital $8.2M, cash $4.6M, inventory $41.8M; February 2025 financing added restricted cash with partial releases; reverse split executed to support Nasdaq compliance.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

W56 platform validation and expansion: 208" extended wheelbase obtained FMVSS/HVIP certification; durability testing to 250,000 highway-equivalent miles; initial orders secured with deliveries slated. “We are confident in the value of our high-performing and cost-efficient products…” — CEO Rick Dauch.
Channel and procurement access improved: GSA schedule awarded; Sourcewell and other cooperative purchasing pathways broaden public-sector reach.
Real-world performance: W56 achieved 31 MPGe in FedEx Express testing and 27 MPGe over 1,000 miles; high uptime (93–97%) in peak season; 154,000 packages delivered via Stables by Workhorse.

What Went Wrong

Revenue shortfall and demand softness: Q4 revenue missed consensus materially ($1.92M vs $3.07M) and declined QoQ due to lower W4 CC sales and elongated adoption cycles. * *
Regulatory/macro headwinds: California withdrew EPA waiver; temporary federal fleet procurement freeze; fleets delayed EV purchases, prompting cautious stance on guidance.
Elevated financing costs and equity actions: Interest expense rose (convertible notes fair value loss); reverse stock splits implemented to maintain listing, underscoring capital constraints.

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)	$4.41M*	$0.84M	$2.51M	$1.92M*
Diluted EPS ($USD)	-43.53*	-1.40	-0.98	-0.94*
Gross Margin %	NA*	NA*	-164.7%*	-287.3%*
EBIT ($USD)	-$34.27M*	-$20.52M	-$14.17M	-$15.47M*
EBITDA ($USD)	-$32.67M*	-$18.46M*	-$12.23M*	-$13.53M*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)	$38.68M*	$14.06M	$10.04M	$17.40M*

Values retrieved from S&P Global for cells marked with *.

Estimate comparison (Q4 2024):

Revenue: Actual $1.92M vs Consensus $3.07M → bold miss.
EPS: Actual -$0.94 vs Consensus -$5.31 → bold beat.
[S&P Global Estimates]*

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (company reports consolidated results).

KPIs and Operational Metrics:

KPI	Q4 2024 / Recent	Prior Quarter(s)
W56 MPGe (test)	31 MPGe (FedEx Express test); 27 MPGe on 1,000-mile drive	—
W56 uptime (peak season)	93–97% daily uptime in Dec	—
Stables by Workhorse (deliveries)	154,000 packages delivered in 2024 peak	—
Working Capital (YE)	$8.2M; Cash $4.6M; Inventory $41.8M	Q3: Cash $3.24M; Inventory $43.19M

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY2025	Not provided	Not provided	Maintained no formal guidance
Margins	FY2025	Not provided	Not provided	Maintained no formal guidance
Capex	FY2025	—	~$4.1M expected, similar to 2024	New qualitative color
Cash burn	Near-term	—	Monthly operating cash below $3M	New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Regulatory/macro	Highlighted Sourcewell and adoption optimism; no guidance detail	GSA contract; steady but slow EV shift	California waiver withdrawn; federal fleet freeze; uncertainty emphasized	More cautious
Product performance	W56 208" development; first order; roadmap expansion	208" certified; extended cargo capacity	250k-mile durability; strong demos; orders for 208"	Strengthening
Public sector access	Sourcewell awarded; dealer additions	GSA award broadens reach	CA DGS via Kingsburg Truck Center (state agencies)	Improving access
Canada expansion	—	Anticipated Canadian counterpart (Canoe) after certification	Transport Canada approval for W56/W750	New market
Supply chain/service	Dealer/service footprint expansion	Emphasis on uptime, support networks	Superior dealer support vs competitors; uptime proof points	Positive execution
Financing/liquidity	Regained Nasdaq compliance; cost controls	Cost/cash-saving measures realized	Convertible note; reverse split; runway focus	Tight but managed

Management Commentary

“Recent regulatory pauses, like the state of California withdrawing its waiver request to the EPA, and a temporary freeze on federal fleet procurement have created tremendous uncertainty in the marketplace.” — CEO Rick Dauch.
“We reduced monthly operating cash to below $3 million a month… we will not be providing specific annual revenue or guidance at this time.” — CFO Bob Ginnan.
“We took significant cost reduction and other actions throughout 2024 to lower our operating cash burn… looking forward, we continue to focus on seeking additional opportunities to reduce costs and cash use.” — CFO Bob Ginnan.
“We have built in-house manufacturing capabilities to produce complete step vans, making us the only North American-based OEM capable of doing so.” — CEO Rick Dauch.

Q&A Highlights

The call was effectively presentation-only with no substantive live Q&A session; management reiterated no formal FY2025 guidance and emphasized cost control and order conversion focus.

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $1.92M vs $3.07M → bold miss; EPS -$0.94 vs -$5.31 → bold beat. Drivers: mix shift away from W4 CC, elongated fleet adoption cycles, offset by cost reductions and lower operating expenses. [S&P Global Estimates]*
Estimate implications: Street likely reduces near-term revenue expectations given regulatory delays and sequential revenue decline; EPS trajectories may improve on Opex discipline absent revenue inflection.

Values retrieved from S&P Global for the estimates above.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution vs demand is the fulcrum: The W56 platform is validated with certifications, performance data, and orders, but macro/regulatory headwinds continue to slow adoption; position sizing should reflect ramp timing risk.
Revenue volatility likely persists near term; watch conversion of demo pipelines (FedEx Ground contractors, public-sector channels via GSA/Sourcewell/DGS) into multi-fleet purchase orders.
Cost actions are working: sequential EPS improvement despite revenue miss suggests further leverage to Opex reductions; monitor monthly cash burn and inventory monetization.
New market catalysts: Transport Canada approval and Geotab integration expand TAM and enhance fleet telemetry value proposition; follow Q2/Q3 demo outcomes in Canada.
Balance sheet watch: Restricted cash releases under convertible note and reverse split actions underscore financing sensitivity; runway extension via working capital, inventory, and owned plant optionality.
Trading lens: Near-term headline risk from lack of guidance and regulatory uncertainty vs potential order announcements and public-sector awards; event-driven opportunities around contract wins and Canada demos.
Medium-term thesis: If fleets restart EV purchasing and public-sector channels scale, W56 economics (MPGe, uptime, TCO payback) support adoption; execution on orders is key to de-risking revenue ramp.

References:

Q4/FY2024 8-K and press release:
Q4 2024 earnings call transcripts:
Prior quarters: Q3 PR and financials , Q2 PR and financials
Strategic PRs (Q4 timeframe): GSA contract , multiple W56 orders , W56 208" FMVSS/HVIP
Additional PRs (Q1 2025 relevant to trend): Transport Canada approval , Kingsburg DGS contract , Geotab telematics integration , W56 extended wheelbase deliveries , NorthStar Courier extended wheelbase , Pacific Northwest entry , Work Truck Week showcase , 10 million E-GEN miles

Values retrieved from S&P Global where marked with *.

Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary