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JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. (WLY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $442.6M; adjusted revenue was flat YoY at constant currency as Research Publishing grew +4% offsetting Learning declines tied to a large prior-year AI project; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.25 and non-GAAP adjusted EPS rose 14% to $1.37 .
  • Wiley raised its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin target to 25.5–26.5% (from 25%+ in March and 24–25% originally), reaffirmed ~$200M FCF, and guided low-to-mid single digit adjusted revenue growth, citing cost savings, recurring revenue strength, and AI licensing momentum .
  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2025 was $1.27 EPS*, $435.0M revenue*, and $125.3M EBITDA*; Wiley beat EPS and revenue but missed consensus EBITDA, reflecting non-GAAP adjustments (company-reported adjusted EBITDA of $125.6M) and divestiture effects . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Strategic catalysts: a third major AI model-training customer and new vertical-specific AI partnerships (AWS research agent; Perplexity education integration); $120M cash proceeds post-quarter from University Services divestiture earmarked to reduce debt and interest expense .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted EPS (+14% YoY in Q4; +31% FY) and margin expansion (Q4 adjusted operating margin up 260 bps; FY up 300 bps) on revenue mix and cost reductions .
  • AI licensing momentum: $40M FY AI licensing revenue; signed a third large tech customer; vertical-specific pilots in pharma, chemicals, and space agency; Perplexity and AWS collaborations broaden enterprise use cases .
  • CEO tone: “We met or exceeded our financial commitments… expanded margins and free cash flow, and extended further into the corporate market through AI licensing and partnership, science analytics, and knowledge services” .

What Went Wrong

  • Learning segment Q4 revenue declined 5% due to a $23M prior-year AI project compare and retail channel softness in Professional; Learning adjusted EBITDA fell 6% in the quarter .
  • Corporate expenses had modest unallocated increases for enterprise modernization despite overall corporate expense reductions; restructuring charges of ~$12M in Q4 as efficiency programs intensified .
  • Continued losses related to sale/impairments of held-for-sale businesses impacted GAAP metrics and tax rate volatility (valuation allowance mechanics), creating noise vs underlying non-GAAP results .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q4 2025 vs S&P Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$426.6 $404.6 $442.6 Est: $435.0; Actual: $442.6; Beat*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.74 ($0.43) $1.25 Est: $1.27; Actual: $1.25; Slight miss*
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.97 $0.84 $1.37 Est: $1.27; Actual: $1.37; Beat*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$105.5 $93.9 $125.6 Est: $125.3; S&P “actual”: $113.2; Company Adj: $125.6*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)24.9% 23.2% 28.4%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)16.3% 14.2% 20.1%

Notes: S&P Global values retrieved from S&P Global.* Company-adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring/divestiture impacts; S&P “actual” may reflect a different (GAAP) construct vs company’s adjusted reporting .

Year-over-Year Q4 Comparison

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$468.5 $442.6
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.46 $1.25
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$1.21 $1.37
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$125.0 $125.6
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)17.5% 20.1%

Segment Breakdown – Q4 2025

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)YoY %Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Margin (%)
Research Publishing$243.1 +4%
Research Solutions$37.7 0%
Research Total$280.7 +4% reported; +3% CC $97.5 34.7%
Academic (Learning)$100.1 +1%
Professional (Learning)$61.7 (13%)
Learning Total$161.9 (5%) $69.7 43.0%

KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash Flow

KPIValue
Article Submissions (FY25)+19% YoY
Article Output (FY25)+8% YoY
AI Licensing Revenue (FY25)~$40M
Free Cash Flow (FY25)$126M
Net Debt / EBITDA (FY25)1.8x
Dividends + Buybacks (FY25)$137M ($60M buybacks at $44.16 avg)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY202625%+ (raised in March 2025 from 24–25%) 25.5–26.5% Raised
Adjusted EPSFY2026$3.90–$4.35 New explicit range
Adjusted Revenue GrowthFY2026Low-to-mid single digit (reaffirmed) Low-to-mid single digit Maintained
Free Cash FlowFY2026~$200M (reaffirmed) ~$200M Maintained
CapExFY2026Comparable to FY25’s $77M Framing provided

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 FY2025 MentionsQ3 FY2025 MentionsQ4 FY2025 Current PeriodTrend
AI/technology initiativesEarly momentum in content licensing; mix of one-time and recurring; raised FY26 margin targets Added India/Brazil research deals; expanded a training project ($9M); reaffirmed outlook; raised FY26 margin target to 25%+ Third major training customer; $40M FY AI revenue; $18M new deal (Q4: $9M recognized, $9M in Q1); AWS agent and Perplexity partnerships; nascent vertical-specific recurring pilots (~$1M) Accelerating, shifting from large training to recurring vertical fine-tuning
Macro/tariffs/supply chainMixed but manageable; digital and recurring models provide resilience Resilience narrative; recurring revenue base; margin focus Management sees uncertainty but balanced planning; diversified geography/funding; prudent expense measures Stable resilience; vigilant cost discipline
Product performance (Academic/Professional)Learning +8–11% at cc; Inclusive Access/courseware strength Learning down in Q3 seasonally; Professional retail softness; AI helped YoY YTD Q4 Learning down 5% (prior-year AI compare); Academic growth; Professional softness; Assessments launch (WorkSmart) Academic steady; Professional mixed
Regional trends (Research)Low single-digit growth; improved Solutions; submissions pipeline India/Brazil nation-wide access; strong submissions/output Double-digit submissions growth in India, China, Brazil, UK, France, Italy, Canada; high single-digit in JP/US; strong CY25 renewals Broad-based strength
Regulatory/legal/research integrityNew author AI-use guidelines; integrity initiatives; study on AI usage Building thought leadership
R&D execution/analyticsSpectral Data program growing; corporate analytics Spectral Data demand; APIs/knowledge hubs; corporate R&D penetration Growing corporate R&D solutions

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared remarks): “We met or exceeded our financial commitments… drove growth in our core while delivering material margin expansion, and capitalized on emerging market opportunities… through AI licensing… data analytics, and knowledge services” .
  • CFO: “We took certain actions across the company in Q4, which led to a restructuring charge of $12 million… targeting a substantial reduction in our technology costs over time… rationalizing our application landscape… capitalizing on emerging AI-driven software development tools” .
  • CEO on AI monetization shift: “The trading market is rapidly evolving from a few substantial pre-training engagements to a broader array of smaller fine-tuning projects where AI developers require more specialized content” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Organic growth ex-AI: Management expects continuation of drivers (open access, TA/subscriptions, Inclusive Access/courseware) with good visibility from CY2025 renewals; AI is not fully “baked” into guidance given market evolution .
  • Vertical AI recurring: Early-stage utility-based licensing; ~$1M in recurring pilots; viewed as high-margin, embedded in R&D workflows (APIs, current data) .
  • Submissions vs output: Lag of ~6–8 months; submissions growth props subscription value and supports OA conversion over time; trends expected to smooth .
  • Macro planning and budgeting: Diversified revenue, recurring contracts, cost levers; scenario planning for R&D budgets and enrollments; vigilant expense controls .
  • Capital allocation: Returned ~$137M in FY25; opportunistic buybacks contingent on valuation; expect more balanced mix as debt is reduced (helped by $120M proceeds; ~$5M interest savings) .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 S&P Global consensus vs actuals: EPS $1.27 est vs $1.37 actual (beat); revenue $435.0M est vs $442.6M actual (beat); EBITDA $125.3M est vs S&P “actual” $113.2M (miss), while Wiley reported adjusted EBITDA $125.6M (non-GAAP) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Street likely revises FY2026 EPS/margin higher given repeat execution and raised margin target; near-term model adjustments may reduce Learning contribution due to tough AI compare and Professional retail softness while increasing Research OA/recurring growth assumptions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat on adjusted EPS and revenue with visible margin drivers; execution underpinning FY2026 guidance raise on margins and reaffirmed FCF target .
  • AI licensing now a multi-pronged monetization path (model training + recurring vertical fine-tuning), expanding corporate addressable market; partnerships (AWS, Perplexity) enhance distribution and product velocity .
  • Research engine healthy: strong CY2025 renewals, double-digit submissions growth across major geographies, OA momentum; supports low-to-mid single digit top-line growth with compounding recurring base .
  • Learning mix watch: Academic resilient (Inclusive Access/courseware), but Professional retail softness and prior-year AI compare temper near-term growth; margin improvements remain strong (37.4% FY) .
  • Balance sheet optionality: Net debt/EBITDA 1.8x and $120M divestiture cash enable deleveraging and ~$5M annual interest savings; continued shareholder returns (dividend/buybacks) balanced with targeted reinvestment .
  • Near-term trading setup: Q1 phasing headwind (~$17M AI compare; partly offset by $9M) could pressure reported revenue, but full-year lens remains appropriate as margin trajectory and cost actions drive EPS/FCF .
  • Medium-term thesis: Durable recurring revenue, disciplined restructuring, and expanding AI/corporate monetization support above-consensus margin/FCF potential; execution on vertical-specific AI subscriptions is a key upside lever .