Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue of $602.5M declined 1.6% YoY, but Adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially to $284.7M with margin expanding to 47.3% (+30 bps YoY), underscoring strong cost control and pricing/VAPS resilience .
Diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.48 (vs $0.44 a year ago); adjusted EPS was $0.49 (vs $0.47) as mix, pricing, and opex actions offset volume headwinds .
FY25 outlook initiated: revenue $2.275–$2.475B and Adjusted EBITDA $1.000–$1.090B; Q1 2025 expected down mid‑single digits YoY on volumes and sales investments, with modest top‑line growth weighted to H2 as headwinds moderate .
Capital returns broadened with a new quarterly cash dividend of $0.07/share alongside ongoing buybacks; management also flagged ample liquidity to address $527M notes due June 2025, a supportive stock narrative catalyst into Investor Day (Mar 7) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Margin expansion continued: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 47.3% (+30 bps YoY, +290 bps vs Q3), with Adjusted EBITDA of $285M supported by pricing and VAPS, and cost flexing .
- Strong cash generation: Q4 net cash from operating activities was $178.9M (29.7% margin) and Adjusted FCF was $136.8M (22.7% margin) .
- Strategic/platform progress: Systems and field integration complete; commercial toolset upgraded (CRM dashboards, pricing technology, guided selling, quote configuration) and adjacencies (cold storage, clearspan) “ready for full commercialization” .
What Went Wrong
- Top‑line softness: Q4 revenue fell 1.6% YoY to $602.5M, with leasing −2.7% and D&I −6.4% YoY; volumes (units on rent) remained pressured despite rate/VAPS offsets .
- Transactional activity weak: Management cited ongoing softness in smaller, rate‑sensitive projects; D&I down amid fewer returns, which supports recurring leasing but weighs on D&I revenue .
- Q1 2025 set‑up softer: Revenues expected down mid‑single digits YoY and margins “modestly below” prior year due to front‑loaded sales investments to drive activations and organic growth .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$604.6	$601.4	$602.5
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)	(0.25)	(0.37)	0.48
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$263.6	$266.9	$284.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	43.6%	44.4%	47.3%
Gross Profit Margin (%)	54.1%	53.5%	55.8%

Q4 2024 vs prior year and vs estimates:

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	Consensus Estimate
Revenue ($M)	$612.4	$602.5	N/A – SPGI consensus unavailable (see Estimates Context)
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)	0.44	0.48	N/A – SPGI consensus unavailable (see Estimates Context)

Revenue mix (oldest → newest):

Revenue Component ($M)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Leasing	477.9	455.6	465.1
Delivery & Installation	102.2	114.8	95.6
Sales – New Units	18.3	17.9	21.8
Sales – Rental Units	14.0	13.2	20.0
Total Revenues	612.4	601.4	602.5

KPIs and leverage (oldest → newest):

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
ROIC (LTM, %)	16.4%	16.5%	16.7%
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x)	3.3x	3.4x	3.5x
Net Cash from Ops ($M)	175.6	(1.6)	178.9
Net Cash from Ops Margin (%)	29.0%	(0.3%)	29.7%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)	N/A	143.1	136.8
Adjusted FCF Margin (%)	N/A	23.8%	22.7%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($B)	FY 2025	N/A	$2.275 – $2.475	Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY 2025	N/A	$1.000 – $1.090	Initiated
Net CAPEX ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$225 – $305	Initiated
Dividend per Share	Quarterly	N/A	$0.07 per share (first payable Mar 19, 2025)	Initiated

Additional 2025 color: Q1 revenue expected down mid‑single digits YoY; Q1 margins modestly below prior year given sales investments; modest H2 top‑line growth expected as volume headwinds moderate; free cash flow “around ~$500M” implied by bridge (management commentary) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (prior)	Q3 2024 (prior)	Q4 2024 (current)	Trend
Digital/commercial tools (pricing, CRM, guided selling)	Rolled out new digital marketing, Project One; rebranding; systems harmonized	AI‑informed price recommendations planned; new quoting/bundling in 1H25	Upgraded CRM dashboards, pricing tech, guided selling, quote config; adding sales headcount selectively	Accelerating
Macro: nonres construction	Nonres starts −14% YoY in Q2; volumes slower than expected	−14% YoY in Q3; election uncertainty weighed on starts	Q4 starts down low single‑digits YoY (vs mid‑teens earlier), signs of moderation	Improving from trough
VAPS penetration	Strong VAPS across portfolio; storage VAPS rising	Modular delivered rates +1% YoY; storage delivered rates +16% LTM	Focus on guided selling to lift attach; storage VAPS per core unit “pushing $40”	Targeted re‑acceleration
New adjacencies (cold storage, clearspan)	Investing; climate‑controlled units on rent +~20% LTM	Run‑rates doubled in 2024; could double again in 2025	“Ready for full commercialization” into 2025; expected meaningful contribution into 2026	Scaling
Capital allocation	Repurchases ongoing; leverage 3.3x	Buybacks resumed; authorization increased; leverage 3.4x	Initiated $0.07 dividend; repurchased 3.5M shares in Q4; leverage 3.5x	Broadening returns
Policy risk (rates/tariffs)	—	Election uncertainty cited	Customers more optimistic post‑election; cautious on rates/tariffs; discussed immigration/tariff puts & takes	Monitoring
Project wins (mega projects, retail)	—	Large projects stable; seasonal retail to pick up into Q4	FIFA Club WC, 2026 WC; 3–5k retail remodel orders expected in 2025	Positive catalysts

Management Commentary

CEO (press release): “Adjusted EBITDA margins of 47.3% in the period and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $137 million at a margin of 22.7%... The initiation of our quarterly dividend program provides an additional avenue to return surplus capital to shareholders.”
CEO (call): “In 2024, we solidified our cold storage and clearspan structures platforms which are now ready for full commercialization as we head into 2025… a dividend simply provides an additional avenue to return capital to shareholders.”
COO/President: “We now have a single general manager and a sales team accountable for every geographic market… new digital marketing capabilities… improved our CRM… upgraded our pricing technology… implementing a new quote configuration tool… we are planning to add sales headcount in certain markets.”
CFO: “Average monthly rental rates were up 6% YoY for modular and up 5% YoY for storage… we drove 30 bps of YoY margin expansion to 47.3% in the fourth quarter… adjusted free cash flow of $137 million in the fourth quarter at a 23% margin.”

Q&A Highlights

Capital intensity and Net CAPEX: Maintenance CAPEX “around $200M” as a general range; incremental 2025 spend targeted to cold storage, clearspan, perimeter solutions, selective solar .
Pricing gap/AMR spread: Modular spot vs AMR spread ~11% exiting Q4; steady spot rates expected, with continued rate optimization and VAPS pushing AMR over time .
2025 bridge and quarterly cadence: Q1 revenues down mid‑single digits YoY; Q1 margins modestly below prior year due to sales investments; H2 growth expected as headwinds moderate; free cash flow “around ~$500M” for 2025 at midpoint assumptions .
VAPS uplift mechanics: Guided selling/bundling to reduce rep variability; strong conversion (70–80%) when quoted; mix shift toward FLEX dilutes per‑unit VAPS but improves returns per sq ft .
D&I and returns: D&I revenue down partly due to fewer returns; positive for recurring leasing, but weighs on D&I line; returns expected down again in 2025 vs 2024 .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS was unavailable at the time of analysis; comparison to estimates is therefore not provided. We attempted to retrieve SPGI estimates but could not due to provider request limits during this session. Where estimate data was not available, we have left the “Consensus Estimate” column as N/A.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin resilience remains the story: sequential and YoY margin expansion to 47.3% despite volumes under pressure; management again demonstrated cost flex and pricing/VAPS discipline .
Set‑up for H2‑weighted 2025: Q1 guide implies a softer start (volumes, sales investments), but management expects moderation of headwinds and modest top‑line growth in H2 with improving run‑rate into 2026 .
Commercial engine upgrades could drive upside: guided selling, pricing tech, quote config, and selective sales hiring aim to reaccelerate activations, VAPS attachment, and enterprise wallet share .
Adjacencies are scaling: cold storage and clearspan are now commercialized with a path to meaningful contribution, expanding TAM and differentiation vs peers .
Capital returns broaden: new $0.07 quarterly dividend plus buybacks (3.5M shares in Q4) and tuck‑in M&A preserve multiple levers for TSR; leverage remains within 3.0x–3.5x .
Rate/tariff backdrop remains a watch item: customers more optimistic post‑election but cautious on “higher for longer” rates and tariffs; any macro uptick likely benefits transactional demand and D&I .
Balance sheet/Liquidity supportive: ~$1.6B ABL availability; clear plan to address $527M 2025 notes; weighted avg pretax cost ~5.8%; debt ~87% fixed post‑swaps .

Notes: All figures reflect continuing operations and company‑reported non‑GAAP definitions where indicated; see non‑GAAP reconciliations in the Q4 2024 materials .

WillScot Holdings Corp (WSC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary