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WILLIAMS SONOMA INC (WSM)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 (14-week quarter) delivered a clean beat: revenue $2.46B vs S&P Global consensus $2.35B (+4.6%), diluted EPS $3.28 vs $2.94 (+11.5%), with record operating margin of 21.5% driven by higher merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies, and occupancy leverage . Results benefited modestly from the 53rd week (+510bps to revenue growth, +60bps to operating margin) but underlying comps turned positive at +3.1% .
  • Full-year FY24 EPS $8.50 (ex freight adjustment) and record operating margin 17.9%, supported by gross margin expansion (+310–320bps YoY ex adjustment) and strong cash generation; quarterly dividend increased 16% to $0.66 per share .
  • FY25 guidance initiated: comps flat to +3%, net revenues -1.5% to +1.5% (53rd-week headwind), operating margin 17.4%–17.8% including tariff impacts (China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25%); capex $275–$300M with 85% to e-com, retail optimization, supply chain .
  • The call emphasized AI-driven personalization/ops, improving furniture trends, B2B momentum (> $1B revenue, +10% comp), and omni-channel execution; S&P 500 inclusion announced Mar 24, 2025 provides an incremental stock narrative catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Positive comp (+3.1%) and market share gains; record Q4 operating margin 21.5% with EPS $3.28, driven by full-price selling, supply chain efficiencies, and occupancy leverage .
  • Brand strength: Williams Sonoma (+5.7% comp), West Elm (+4.2%), PB Kids/Teen (+3.5%); retail channel +7% comp vs e-commerce +1.3% as stores benefited from improved in-stocks and design services .
  • Management quote: “We are also incorporating AI into our digital capabilities like personalized e-mails and customized homepages… AI will be a key component in driving record sales and margin.” – Laura Alber .

What Went Wrong

  • Pottery Barn comp was slightly negative (-0.5%), though improved vs Q3; SG&A rate ticked higher YoY (+7.6% dollars, 25.8% rate), with higher incentive comp and advertising (partially offset by lower general expenses) .
  • FY25 faces tariff headwinds (China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25%) pressuring gross margin; guidance embeds margin erosion with offsets from supply chain and SG&A savings .
  • FY24 included an out-of-period freight adjustment ($49M in Q1) and 53rd week tailwinds; management clearly quantified but investors should normalize for these effects when assessing run-rate margins and growth .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 FY23Q3 FY24Q4 FY24vs Est. (Q4 FY24)
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.279 $1.801 $2.462 $2.354*
Diluted EPS ($)$2.72 $1.96 $3.28 $2.94*
Gross Margin %46.0% 46.7% 47.3% N/A
Operating Margin %20.1% 17.8% 21.5% N/A
SG&A % of Revenue25.9% 28.9% 25.8% N/A

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Notes:

  • Q4 FY24 additional week contributed +510bps to revenue growth and +60bps to operating margin .
  • Retail comp +7% and e-commerce +1.3% in Q4 .

Segment Breakdown (Q4)

BrandNet Revenue Q4 FY23 ($MM)Net Revenue Q4 FY24 ($MM)Q4 FY23 Comp (%)Q4 FY24 Comp (%)
Pottery Barn$874 $919 -9.6% -0.5%
West Elm$453 $501 -15.3% +4.2%
Williams Sonoma$524 $573 +1.6% +5.7%
PB Kids & Teen$311 $339 -2.5% +3.5%
Other$117 $130 N/AN/A
Total$2,279 $2,462 -6.8% +3.1%

KPIs

KPIQ4 FY24YoY/Context
Comparable Brand Revenue+3.1% vs -6.8% in Q4 FY23
Retail vs E-com CompRetail +7%; E-com +1.3% E-com ~66% of FY24 revenue
ROIC54.0% Among best in retail (mgmt)
Cash & Equivalents$1,213MM No debt outstanding (mgmt)
Inventory$1,332MM Strategic China pull-forward for tariffs
Stores (End of Q4)512 total Net -6 YoY (518→512)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Revenues (YoY)FY25N/A-1.5% to +1.5% (53rd-week impact) New
Comparable SalesFY25N/AFlat to +3% New
Operating MarginFY25N/A17.4%–17.8% (incl. ~20bps 53rd-week impact) New
Tariff AssumptionsFY25N/AIncludes China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25% New clarity
CapexFY25N/A$275–$300MM; ~85% to e-com, retail optimization, supply chain New
DividendFY25 (declared)$0.57 (pre raise)$0.66 quarterly (+16%) Raised
Buyback AuthorizationOngoing$1.2–$1.3B authorized (Q3/Q4 context) $1.2B available (as of call) Maintained
Long-term TargetsMulti-yearMid-to-high single-digit revenue; mid-to-high teens margin Reiterated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q2 FY24)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q3 FY24)Current Period (Q4 FY24)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesFocus on profitability; limited AI detail in PR Raised FY24 margin outlook; still ops-driven AI in personalized emails, customized homepages; AI in omni-services and call centers to drive savings Increasing emphasis
Supply Chain+180bps efficiencies; gross margin +550bps YoY +100bps efficiencies; gross margin +230bps YoY Continued efficiencies; big & bulky scale; more room to improve returns/damages/replacements Sustained improvement
Tariffs/MacroFY24 outlook prudent; no explicit tariff detail Raises FY24 outlook; macro cautious FY25 margin guide includes China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25%; resourcing and pricing actions Headwind quantified, mitigation in place
Product PerformanceNegative comps; improved margin Comp -2.9%; improving trend Comps positive; brand highlights: WSM +5.7%, West Elm +4.2%, PB Kids/Teen +3.5%, PB -0.5% Positive inflection
Regional TrendsNot highlightedNot highlightedGrowth in Canada, Mexico, India; UK partnerships (John Lewis, Fortnum & Mason) Broadening international
B2B/ContractNot highlightedNot highlightedRecord year >$1B revenue; Q4 contract +12% comp; cruise/hospitality/multifamily wins Strong momentum
Retail OptimizationNot highlightedNot highlightedFleet optimization; ~17% closures since 2019; remodels driving DD growth (e.g., OKC) Ongoing optimization

Management Commentary

  • “We are also incorporating AI into our digital capabilities like personalized e-mails and customized homepages… AI will be a key component in driving record sales and margin.” – Laura Alber .
  • “Q4 gross margin came in at 47.3%, 130bps higher than last year… merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies and occupancy.” – Jeff Howie .
  • “Our guidance includes the additional 20% China tariffs, the 25% Mexico and Canada tariffs and the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum… we’ve offset most of the impact.” – Jeff Howie .
  • “Business-to-business had an exciting and record-breaking year, driving more than $1 billion in revenues with a 10% comp… contract’s largest quarter history to date.” – Laura Alber .
  • “We are proud to increase our quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.66 per share.” – Company press release .

Q&A Highlights

  • SG&A leverage: Management expects SG&A savings (variable employment, AI in back office/call centers, flexible ad spend) to partially offset gross margin tariff headwinds; margins guided at 17.4%–17.8% .
  • Gross margin/tariffs: Tariff impacts embedded; offsets via vendor concessions, resourcing, targeted price increases, supply chain efficiencies, SG&A reductions, expanding Made-in-USA (18% of sourcing) .
  • Demand trends: Early Q1 FY25 reads complicated by late Easter; strategies in non-furniture, seasonal, and collaborations driving customer response; furniture trend improving due to proprietary newness .
  • Retail footprint: Continued fleet optimization with strict ROI; ~17% closures since 2019; remodels/relocations producing double-digit lifts (e.g., OKC Pottery Barn) .
  • West Elm: Sequential comp improvement driven by newness, collaborations, stronger seasonal assortment, improved storytelling/imagery, and backroom inventory enabling take-home purchases .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY24 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $2.462B vs $2.354B*; EPS $3.28 vs $2.94*; EBITDA $555MM vs $550MM*; ~19 revenue and ~22 EPS estimates *.
  • Q3 FY24: Revenue $1.801B vs $1.785B*; EPS $1.96 vs $1.77*; EBITDA $381MM vs $375MM* *.
  • Q2 FY24: Revenue $1.788B vs $1.810B* (miss); EPS $1.74 vs $1.61* (beat); EBITDA $334MM vs $326MM* *.
  • FY24: Revenue $7.751B vs $7.698B*; EPS $7.425 reported vs $7.27* (note: full-year non-GAAP diluted EPS $8.79; EPS $8.50 ex Q1 freight adjustment per 8-K) * .

Values marked with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Implication: Consensus likely moves up for FY25 margin durability given tariff offsets and Q4 strength; revenue estimates adjust for 53rd-week headwind and comps flat to +3%.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • High-quality beat with record Q4 margin indicates resilient model; full-price selling and supply chain efficiencies remain durable levers .
  • FY25 guidance bakes in tariffs; watch management execution on resourcing, vendor concessions, targeted pricing, and AI-driven SG&A savings to protect margins .
  • Brand momentum and improving furniture trend (proprietary newness, in-stock) support comps trajectory; retail +7% comps highlight store execution .
  • B2B scaling (> $1B revenue) and emerging brands (Rejuvenation) add diversified growth vectors less tied to housing cycles .
  • Capital returns continue: dividend raised to $0.66; $1.2B buyback dry powder; strong liquidity ($1.213B cash) and no debt support opportunistic repurchases .
  • Operational catalysts: AI deployment across personalization, omni logistics, call centers; Arizona DC optimization for cost/speed .
  • Narrative catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion announcement (Mar 24, 2025) enhances investor visibility and potential passive flows .