WS
WILLIAMS SONOMA INC (WSM)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 (14-week quarter) delivered a clean beat: revenue $2.46B vs S&P Global consensus $2.35B (+4.6%), diluted EPS $3.28 vs $2.94 (+11.5%), with record operating margin of 21.5% driven by higher merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies, and occupancy leverage . Results benefited modestly from the 53rd week (+510bps to revenue growth, +60bps to operating margin) but underlying comps turned positive at +3.1% .
- Full-year FY24 EPS $8.50 (ex freight adjustment) and record operating margin 17.9%, supported by gross margin expansion (+310–320bps YoY ex adjustment) and strong cash generation; quarterly dividend increased 16% to $0.66 per share .
- FY25 guidance initiated: comps flat to +3%, net revenues -1.5% to +1.5% (53rd-week headwind), operating margin 17.4%–17.8% including tariff impacts (China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25%); capex $275–$300M with 85% to e-com, retail optimization, supply chain .
- The call emphasized AI-driven personalization/ops, improving furniture trends, B2B momentum (> $1B revenue, +10% comp), and omni-channel execution; S&P 500 inclusion announced Mar 24, 2025 provides an incremental stock narrative catalyst .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Positive comp (+3.1%) and market share gains; record Q4 operating margin 21.5% with EPS $3.28, driven by full-price selling, supply chain efficiencies, and occupancy leverage .
- Brand strength: Williams Sonoma (+5.7% comp), West Elm (+4.2%), PB Kids/Teen (+3.5%); retail channel +7% comp vs e-commerce +1.3% as stores benefited from improved in-stocks and design services .
- Management quote: “We are also incorporating AI into our digital capabilities like personalized e-mails and customized homepages… AI will be a key component in driving record sales and margin.” – Laura Alber .
What Went Wrong
- Pottery Barn comp was slightly negative (-0.5%), though improved vs Q3; SG&A rate ticked higher YoY (+7.6% dollars, 25.8% rate), with higher incentive comp and advertising (partially offset by lower general expenses) .
- FY25 faces tariff headwinds (China 20%, Mexico/Canada 25%, steel/aluminum 25%) pressuring gross margin; guidance embeds margin erosion with offsets from supply chain and SG&A savings .
- FY24 included an out-of-period freight adjustment ($49M in Q1) and 53rd week tailwinds; management clearly quantified but investors should normalize for these effects when assessing run-rate margins and growth .
Financial Results
Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.
Notes:
- Q4 FY24 additional week contributed +510bps to revenue growth and +60bps to operating margin .
- Retail comp +7% and e-commerce +1.3% in Q4 .
Segment Breakdown (Q4)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are also incorporating AI into our digital capabilities like personalized e-mails and customized homepages… AI will be a key component in driving record sales and margin.” – Laura Alber .
- “Q4 gross margin came in at 47.3%, 130bps higher than last year… merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies and occupancy.” – Jeff Howie .
- “Our guidance includes the additional 20% China tariffs, the 25% Mexico and Canada tariffs and the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum… we’ve offset most of the impact.” – Jeff Howie .
- “Business-to-business had an exciting and record-breaking year, driving more than $1 billion in revenues with a 10% comp… contract’s largest quarter history to date.” – Laura Alber .
- “We are proud to increase our quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.66 per share.” – Company press release .
Q&A Highlights
- SG&A leverage: Management expects SG&A savings (variable employment, AI in back office/call centers, flexible ad spend) to partially offset gross margin tariff headwinds; margins guided at 17.4%–17.8% .
- Gross margin/tariffs: Tariff impacts embedded; offsets via vendor concessions, resourcing, targeted price increases, supply chain efficiencies, SG&A reductions, expanding Made-in-USA (18% of sourcing) .
- Demand trends: Early Q1 FY25 reads complicated by late Easter; strategies in non-furniture, seasonal, and collaborations driving customer response; furniture trend improving due to proprietary newness .
- Retail footprint: Continued fleet optimization with strict ROI; ~17% closures since 2019; remodels/relocations producing double-digit lifts (e.g., OKC Pottery Barn) .
- West Elm: Sequential comp improvement driven by newness, collaborations, stronger seasonal assortment, improved storytelling/imagery, and backroom inventory enabling take-home purchases .
Estimates Context
- Q4 FY24 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $2.462B vs $2.354B*; EPS $3.28 vs $2.94*; EBITDA $555MM vs $550MM*; ~19 revenue and ~22 EPS estimates *.
- Q3 FY24: Revenue $1.801B vs $1.785B*; EPS $1.96 vs $1.77*; EBITDA $381MM vs $375MM* *.
- Q2 FY24: Revenue $1.788B vs $1.810B* (miss); EPS $1.74 vs $1.61* (beat); EBITDA $334MM vs $326MM* *.
- FY24: Revenue $7.751B vs $7.698B*; EPS $7.425 reported vs $7.27* (note: full-year non-GAAP diluted EPS $8.79; EPS $8.50 ex Q1 freight adjustment per 8-K) * .
Values marked with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.
Implication: Consensus likely moves up for FY25 margin durability given tariff offsets and Q4 strength; revenue estimates adjust for 53rd-week headwind and comps flat to +3%.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- High-quality beat with record Q4 margin indicates resilient model; full-price selling and supply chain efficiencies remain durable levers .
- FY25 guidance bakes in tariffs; watch management execution on resourcing, vendor concessions, targeted pricing, and AI-driven SG&A savings to protect margins .
- Brand momentum and improving furniture trend (proprietary newness, in-stock) support comps trajectory; retail +7% comps highlight store execution .
- B2B scaling (> $1B revenue) and emerging brands (Rejuvenation) add diversified growth vectors less tied to housing cycles .
- Capital returns continue: dividend raised to $0.66; $1.2B buyback dry powder; strong liquidity ($1.213B cash) and no debt support opportunistic repurchases .
- Operational catalysts: AI deployment across personalization, omni logistics, call centers; Arizona DC optimization for cost/speed .
- Narrative catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion announcement (Mar 24, 2025) enhances investor visibility and potential passive flows .