Essential Utilities - Q3 2023
November 7, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to today's Essential Utilities third quarter 2023 earnings call. This meeting is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to hand the call over to Brian Dingerdissen. Please go ahead, sir.
Brian Dingerdissen (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Thank you, Sergei. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Essential Utilities' third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm Brian Dingerdissen, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Essential. If you did not receive a copy of the press release, you can find it by visiting the investor relations section of our website. The slides that we will be referencing in the webcast of this event can also be found on the site. Here is our forward-looking statement: As a reminder, some of the matters discussed during this call may include forward-looking statements that involve risk, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Please refer to our most recent 10-Q, 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of such risk and uncertainties.
During the course of this call, reference may be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures is posted in the investor relations section of the company's website. We'll begin the call with Chris Franklin, our Chairman and CEO, who will provide an update on the company. With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I want to start the call out, you know, by acknowledging an unfortunate event that some of you may have heard of, about or read about back in August. In a suburb of Pittsburgh, a home exploded, destroying and damaging multiple homes in the neighborhood. Unfortunately, there were six fatalities, including one of our off-duty employees and his young son. The fire marshal has indicated that based on the investigation, the incident occurred inside of the home and was not a result of an issue with the gas utility. We continue to, of course, fully cooperate with investigators.
They really need to recognize our team for their response to this tragic event, their professionalism, their expertise, and especially the way they performed under extremely difficult conditions, just having lost one of their colleagues that day. Very difficult day for the team. All right, let me shift, shift gears a little bit here and start off by expressing my appreciation to those of you who participated in our off-season governance meetings and our IR perception study. While they are still compiling and synthesizing your comments, I want you to know that we appreciate your time and your feedback, and most certainly, we'll take the insights gained very seriously. You know, operating a public company, we're always glancing at the stock price throughout every given day, and as sizable shareholders ourselves, our management team and the board are well aware of the current performance of our stock.
We acknowledge the sector has been trading off. Much of the industry performance over the past few months, we believe, has largely been driven by the macro environment and the recent sell-off of utilities due to the Fed's comments and actions on interest rates. We know that dividend-paying stocks are typically out of favor during periods when investors can capture income through interest-bearing accounts without the risk of their principal. We also understand that some investors are concerned about utilities that have robust capital programs, which need to be financed and then recovered through the rate process. Fortunately, our team has a long history of executing large capital programs and achieving timely regulatory recovery, obviously helped by the constructive regulatory environments in the states where we operate. Now, I also want to acknowledge that we traded below our expected price.
We don't like it, but we don't believe it's as large as some might imply. If we compare our PE to that of our most similar water utility peer and assume a slight discount because our projected growth rate is just slightly lower, we estimate that since the Peoples transaction in 2020, we've traded at an average discount of about 5% compared to the weighted average of our water and gas peers, that, that discount currently sits a little higher, roughly 10%. For those of you who've followed us or been with us over the last four years, you know that there have been many fluctuations, and often we've traded above that target as well.
Now, as investors, many of you consider various things, and we know that you're thinking about the fact that our two largest rate divisions will file for rates in the next six to nine months, and we've had some challenges recently. You know, Q1 weather was difficult on the gas side. We continue to wrestle with the DELCORA and East Whiteland litigation. But remember, despite our challenges, we have continued to deliver on our EPS targets. Now, from a stock performance perspective, some have written that this has been the worst year for utilities in 40 years. While that current climate is challenging, we have remained focused on strong execution and enhanced shareholder value.
And I'll point you to our recent pruning of our small and underperforming West Virginia gas business and the strong result of our sale of the energy projects to further refine our portfolio and offset equity needs. On a very positive note, we view the stock at its current price as a unique entry point and have been hearing from many new investors, potential investors, that previously viewed water utilities as too expensive. So at roughly 19x 2023 earnings, with a almost 3.5% yield, coupled with our strong record of our operational execution, our large capital program, along with continued water system consolidation, the company is poised for long-term success. I also want to emphasize that we don't need to close the DELCORA transaction to meet earnings guidance in 2023 and 2024.
In fact, our earnings guidance, 2023 and 2024, is not dependent on any of the acquisitions that are currently in our materials. This includes East Whiteland, too. Remember that most municipal transactions lose money or break even until we bring them through a rate case, and you'll recall that our Pennsylvania water case won't file until 2024. Now, we'll use this window of time to work with regulators and stakeholders to improve the Fair Market Value process and hopefully alleviate some of the headwinds that the sector has been facing related to municipal acquisitions, especially in Pennsylvania. We spent time on our last earnings call reminding investors about the primary source of earnings generation, the execution of our capital plan.
Now, make no mistake, our acquisition program is important to our long-term success, but is often not as impactful as the negative impact to our stock performance if these opportunities hit speed bumps or don't fully materialize them. Now, listen, we're gonna continue to work hard on our growth or acquisition program, and we're gonna go look at improved methods to communicate those opportunities so that we adjust expectations from the onset. We've heard you clearly on that. Now, one other factor that I wanted to mention that's been impacting our share price was the need for equity. In September, we completed our financings for the year, removing any perceived equity overhang.
We heard the feedback related to our new guidance approach regarding equity needs, and believe me, we're gonna take it into account as we finalize our future guidance plans. We've heard you loud and clear. All right, let's move on to some highlights from the quarter and a couple of company updates. With a dedicated focus on capital investment and operational efficiency, we had a strong third quarter with earnings per share of $0.30. Dan will take you through those, the financials in just a moment. We remain on track to invest $1.1 billion in capital projects this year, and maybe even slightly higher than that, improving the service and reliability for our customers, while adding substantial rate-based growth.
In the first nine months of 2023, we've invested $874.5 million through our water, wastewater, and natural gas systems, as compared to $719.7 million for the same period last year. Keep in mind that our capital budget is composed of thousands of projects, and it takes significant expertise to achieve success in those projects. We currently have asset purchase agreements signed for five municipal acquisitions, totaling nearly $354 million in purchase price, and continue to have a robust pipeline of opportunities. I mentioned the sale of our West Virginia gas utility assets, which was announced on October 2nd. This sale really enables management to focus on fewer states and specifically, where we have larger bases of customers and growth opportunities.
Then on October third, we announced a $165 million binding agreement to sell three non-utility energy projects in Pittsburgh, including innovative microgrids and district energy system. And finally, in late October, the board appointed Rod West to the board of directors. Some of you may know Rod from the utility industry. He serves as the Group President, Utility Operations at Entergy Corporation. The departure of Chris Womack from our board, we were looking for a seasoned executive with utility experience, much like the skills that Chris brought to the board. We're really excited about Rod's experience and his expertise, and we think it's a great match for the Essential Utilities board. We will, Rod will serve on the corporate governance and risk mitigation committees when he joins us in December.
I also want to take a minute to discuss our recently published Biennial Environmental, Social, and Governance Report, which covers our performance in 2022. The updated ESG report tracks key progress on our commitments to the environment, our employees, and the communities we serve. While we made these commitments just a few years ago, I'm really proud to say that we've achieved our diverse supplier and employee commitments already, ensuring that the company's team and business reflects the communities we serve. We've reduced our Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions already by 25% from our 2019 baseline and are well on our way to our overall goal of a reduction of 60% by 2035. As a reminder, this is the equivalent of removing 80,000 cars from the road each year. This is significant.
We were able to achieve this strong progress by successfully shifting to nearly 100% renewable electricity for our water segment in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and Illinois, and by reducing stray methane emissions in our gas segment through our pipe replacement program. The report also highlights that the water segment outperformed the national average for water quality by nearly 5x. I think this is a testament to our technical and operational expertise as an industry-leading utility, and supports our proactive commitment to PFAS treatment. We continue to refine our numbers, so you'll notice that we have updated our capital investment estimates related to PFAS from approximately $350 million to now $450 million. Additionally, we estimate annual operating expenses will be in the 5% range of the overall capital expenditures.
I'd encourage you to visit our ESG microsite, where you can do a deep dive into the full report or just take a look at the supplemental reports for a brief overview. With that, let me hand it over to Dan to talk about our financial results.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'll start off with the third quarter highlights. You'll recall that GAAP EPS revenues include purchased gas costs and that natural gas commodity prices have decreased significantly year-over-year. So on a GAAP basis, we had revenues for the quarter of $411.3 million, compared to $434.6 million in the third quarter of last year. Similar to last quarter, the largest contributor to the decrease in revenues for the third quarter was the recovery of lower purchased gas commodity prices, with purchased gas costs decreasing by $35.5 million from the same period last year. Our regulated water segment contributed $310.6 million, and our regulated natural gas segment contributed $94.8 million.
Incremental revenues from regulatory recoveries and water and wastewater customer growth contributed positively, offsetting lower purchased gas costs and lower volume in the water segment for the quarter. O&M expenses decreased 2.9% to $147 million for the quarter, down from $151.4 million in the same quarter of last year. Lower employee-related costs and lower recoverable costs related to our natural gas segment customer rider were the primary drivers of the decrease, and were offset by higher water production costs and operating expenses related to acquired systems. Net income was up year-over-year from $68.6 million to $80.1 million, and GAAP EPS was up approximately 15%, from $0.26 in the third quarter last year to $0.30 for the quarter this year. Next, let's walk through the waterfall slide, starting with revenue.
In the third quarter of 2023, revenues decreased $23.4 million or 5.4% on a GAAP basis. Starting on the left-hand side of the waterfall, regulatory recoveries added $14.1 million in revenues year-over-year. This includes impacts of base rate cases and other regulatory proceedings across all nine states in our current footprint. Next, organic and acquisition growth from our regulated water segment provided an additional $3.2 million, and other items, combined with increased volumes from our regulated natural gas segment, added an additional $0.4 million towards the third quarter revenues.
Natural gas commodity prices have continued to decline from the significantly elevated prices in 2020, and therefore, when compared to the third quarter—sorry, prices in 2022, and therefore, when compared to the third quarter in 2022, you'll notice that the primary driver of the decrease in revenues for the quarter was the recovery of $35.5 million less in purchased gas costs. And lastly, decreased water volumes of $5.7 million from our regulated water segment also contributed to the reduction in revenues. Now, let's walk through the operations and maintenance expenses. Operations and maintenance expenses were $147 million for the third quarter, a decrease of 2.9% compared to $151.4 million for the same period in 2022.
Increased production costs related to chemicals, purchased water, and purchased power contributed $3.2 million in incremental costs for the quarter, and operating expenses from newly acquired systems in our regulated water segment added another $1.7 million. These were offset by lower employee-related costs of $6.3 million, which were related to the incremental pension contributions and an accrual for one-time incentive compensation for non-officer-level employees in the third quarter of last year. The gas customer rider, which is recoverable through a revenue surcharge, decreased $2 million due to lower commodity prices in our regulated natural gas segment. And finally, other items, which include depreciation, interest, and taxes, and lower bad debt combined, decreased O&M expenses for the quarter by another $900,000. Next, let's spend a minute on the earnings per share waterfall.
Beginning on the left side of the slide, GAAP EPS for the third quarter of 2022 was $0.26. Regulatory recoveries contributed $0.038, lower O&M expenses contributed another $0.013, and organic and acquisition growth from our regulated segment, regulated water segment, added $0.004. These were offset by decreased volume from our regulated water segment of $0.15 and other items of $0.002....The result is GAAP EPS of $0.30 for the third quarter of 2023, a 15.4% increase over last year. We continue to expect to meet our annual earnings per share guidance for the year and remain confident in our ability to deliver on the 5%-7% earnings growth per share.
Before moving on, you may also recall that in August and September, we agreed to issuances of common stock at market pricing to raise approximately $300 million. So with this, in addition to the equity raised earlier in the year through our ATM program, we've satisfied our 2023 common equity needs that were previously announced. Additionally, in August of 2023, the company's regulated water segment subsidiary, Aqua Pennsylvania, issued $225 million of first mortgage bonds. The bonds consisted of $175 million of 5.48% first mortgage bonds due in 2053, and $50 million of 5.56% first mortgage bonds due in 2061. The proceeds from these offerings, both the equity and debt offerings, were to repay existing indebtedness and for general corporate purposes, which include capital expenditures and acquisitions.
As Chris mentioned earlier, we announced two portfolio rationalization efforts to further simplify the business. First, we completed the sale of the West Virginia Natural Gas Utility assets, which allow us to better focus on our core operations. Second, with the more recent news, good—really good news here, of a $165 million binding agreement to sell three non-utility energy projects in Pittsburgh. This transaction is subject to various closing conditions, so we'd expect it to close in late 2023 or early 2024. We plan to use the proceeds to finance our capital program and acquisitions in lieu of external funding from equity and debt issuances. I'm pleased to report that while there'll be a nearly $100 million gain, we expect to meet our current stated earnings guidance without factoring that in, presuming normal weather and resulting gas usage.
Under regulatory activity and other matters, so far in 2023, we completed rate cases or surcharge filings in all 9 states in our current footprint, with a total annualized revenue increase of $42.4 million for our regulated water states and $21.3 million in our regulated natural gas segment. Also, we currently have base rate cases underway in Ohio and Virginia for our regulated water segment. As previously announced, we plan to file a base rate case for our Pennsylvania Natural Gas Utility by the end of the year. As a reminder, this is the first Pennsylvania natural gas rate case filed under our ownership, the first rate case since the adoption of tax repair in the gas business, and also the first case in which there will be a request for weather normalization, a mechanism that a number of our peers have today.
Given that we've replaced over 450 mi of pipe in Pennsylvania across our gas footprint, rate base at Peoples has grown significantly, while our system has become safer and more reliable, and our greenhouse gas emissions have meaningfully declined. And lastly, I want to remind everyone that Pennsylvania allows base rate cases to be filed using a fully projected future test year, and therefore, we anticipate recovering the impacts of rising interest rates and inflation through much of 2025. And with that, I'll hand it back over to Chris.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Dan. Let's take a moment and talk about our water and wastewater acquisition program. As a reminder, with the closing of four transactions early in the third quarter, we've acquired seven systems so far this year, adding over 11,000 customer equivalents to our current water and wastewater footprint. I remind you again that these acquisitions don't necessarily come at full earnings. In August of 2022, we acquired the East Whiteland wastewater assets in Pennsylvania, which were then subsequently appealed by the Office of the Consumer Advocate to the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court. And then in July of 2023, the Commonwealth Court issued a decision to overturn the PUC order approving the acquisition.
Now, just last month, the company, the PUC, and the East Whiteland team then appealed the Commonwealth Court's July order to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, and we're currently awaiting to hear if the Pennsylvania Supreme Court will hear the case. Now, we'll continue to own and operate the East Whiteland system until we hear from the Supreme Court. In the meantime, we'll continue to work with regulators and stakeholders to attempt to make improvements to the Fair Market Value process, to bring more clarity to the rules, and to ensure it brings value to all of those impacted by the process. All right, on to the next slide here. Let's take a minute to review our pending transactions and our acquisition pipeline. As of this call, we have five signed asset purchase agreements in two states, Pennsylvania and Illinois, where we currently have existing water operations.
You may recall, in the second quarter, we announced the agreement for the Greenville Wastewater System in Pennsylvania, and then more recently, we announced the agreement to acquire the Greenville Water System, which has 3,000 customer connections. Collectively, these five acquisitions are expected to add over 211,000 customers or customer equivalents, and total nearly $354 million in purchase price. We continue to see a strong and healthy pipeline of opportunities for additional growth, and we're currently engaged in active discussions with municipalities which have over 400,000 water and wastewater customers. Now, before moving on, I just wanna note that the DELCORA regulatory process continues to be under a stay by the Federal Bankruptcy Court, and we remain confident that we will ultimately close the DELCORA transaction despite the lack of a clear timeline.
As we stated on our, our last quarter's call, we removed any impact to our guidance from DELCORA prior to the second half of 2025. All right. Let's wrap up with reaffirming the guidance for 2023. We continue to expect earnings to be between $1.85 and $1.90 per share, and remain confident that our three-year earnings per share growth will be 5%-7% through 2025. Think of this excluding any gain associated with the sale of the energy projects and assuming, of course, normal weather. Our capital plans remain on track for the year as we expect to invest approximately $1.1 billion or maybe even a little bit better than that.
We continue to expect rate-based growth to be between 6%-7% for water and between 8%-10% for natural gas, with customer growth between 2%-3% on average for water and stable for natural gas, excluding the sale of West Virginia. Finally, we remain committed to our ESG targets, commitments, and initiatives, and we welcome you to take a look at the recently published 2022 ESG report, an updated ESG website. We are currently discussing our plans for providing 2024 guidance, and our approach and timing will be similar to past years. Our board doesn't meet until mid-December, where they approve the budget. That concludes our formal remarks. With that, I'd like to open it up the line questions. Back to you, Sergey.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question at this time, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. Again, it is star one to ask a question. So the first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Julien.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst of Power, Utilities and Renewables)
Hey, good morning, Chris, team. Pleasure, guys. Maybe just to come back to where you started this call, right? I mean, obviously, a certain degree of frustration. Obviously, you've got multi-year guidance out there. How do you think about responding to the current environment? Again, I just hear your frustration in your voice, same time, providing perhaps even further extended out guidance and a refresh could be still pending for a bit here, considering the upcoming case. But I wanted to put it back on you as far as incremental data points that could help de-risk or provide a longer-term refresh on the outlook, if you will.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. Well, listen, I think, you know, we provided our thoughts pretty thoroughly. I guess I would just add my optimism. We're all going through. I mean, when I say we all in the utility industry are going through a rocky time for our investments in utilities, and we all acknowledge that. And then, we further acknowledge that we've got some headwinds we've been dealing with. We're gonna work on some of this regulatory process in Pennsylvania and see if we can get some improvements there. Listen, litigation is always frustrating, and if you sense that in my voice, you'd be right. It is frustrating. Having said that, though, you know, these are adders.
Our base earnings generated from our capital program are solid as can be, and we continue to perform in our good states, or good regulatory climate states. So we feel good about the base business and our continued ability to produce nice earnings growth, especially in what is a generally tough environment for utilities. So I, you know, listen, I'll just conclude that thought with my optimism. Dan, do you have anything to add?
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
I think the only thing I add, Julien, is I think, like all utilities, we're obviously facing higher interest rates than inflation, and I think as utilities in general, we'll respond to that by having more frequent regulatory filings.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst of Power, Utilities and Renewables)
Yeah. No, indeed. All right, a couple follow-ups there on a more specific basis. The $165 million pending for the non-utility projects, energy projects, can you talk a little bit about the timing element here and how that fits into your financing plan to the extent to which that does or does not close here in the near term or what have you? Just, again, maybe that's more of a Dan than a Chris question here.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, Julien, I think, you know, it'll either close late 2023 or early 2024. So either side of the end of the calendar year here would not really change how we think about it from a financing perspective.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst of Power, Utilities and Renewables)
Right. Yeah, and you're excluding the gain anyway from your, your core earnings numbers anyway. All right, fair enough. And then just coming back on, on this Pennsylvania case, I mean, obviously it's been a minute since you all filed here, and, and obviously, it's a new owner, et cetera. I mean, how are you thinking about the rate increase and the impact on customers as it stands right now? I mean, you've done a lot of investment. Obviously, there's potentially some degree of benefits that could go back to customers as well to mitigate it. Any updated thoughts?
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, Julien, I guess I'd say, you know, we're still in the process now. It's clearly an important case for us. You know, we've been out for five years. It's the first case since we bought the gas business. This case combines both the Peoples gas business and the Peoples Natural Gas businesses. We did a filing to combine those entities. It'll have significant rate base addition in the case. So we've invested a lot of capital here. So as we think about the fully projected future test year in this case that we're going to file versus last case, the increase in rate base is about $1.9 billion.
Now, that includes about $300 million that came across from the Peoples Gas business into Peoples Natural Gas, but it's still a very significant capital investment that we'll be filing for here. Now, this is the case, too, Julian, as a reminder, that really incorporates the benefits of tax repair. So we've had this tax repair scenario for the last few years. We're going to continue to invest capital that's repair-eligible going forward, which lowers the effective tax rate, and that low effective tax rate will be incorporated into the rates, so it will benefit the customers and help to mitigate what would otherwise be the anticipated increase here tied to the capital.
But, you know, of course, I'm not, don't want to say there is not an increase here, but that repair benefit will help to moderate that increase. You know, we're still kind of working through the specifics here. We'd expect the equity layer in this case to be consistent with other cases we've filed for water in Pennsylvania, as well as what Peoples had filed previously for gas. And in terms of sort of the ROE ask and the revenue requirement increase, that's something we're still working through in this case process. So, you know, stand by as we file that, and we have to file it by the end of the year. You'll see the details of that in the filing.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
And Dan, just to maybe one adder to that, affordability. You know, when you think about rates, fortunately, where we sit on Marcellus Shale, our commodity price is, is better than, than most, right? And, and as we know, the, on the, you know, you look at the spot market, natural gas is in a pretty good place right now in terms of pricing. And so, Julian, when you look even a decade ago, before directional drilling, rates were higher than they are today. And if you look a year or so ago, when rates, spiked, our rates are better today as well. And so we're in a pretty good position with our customers. Having said that, we also have significant, safety net programs in place.
In fact, you know, our safety net last year, I think, was in the range of $35 million that we helped customers who couldn't afford our bills. So I think we're in a really good place. And this is a capital case, largely. I mean, there is an inflation element, no doubt, but this is largely a capital case, and I think our rates are in a pretty good place.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst of Power, Utilities and Renewables)
Got it. Excellent. Sorry, last quick one, just maybe to bring it home. Year to date, obviously, expenses trending well here in terms of cost benefits, and then also tax. I mean, how are you tracking against full year here? Just to, you know, to flag the big deltas there that are favorable for you, especially tax.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, well, certainly, you know, we've had—and as you know, we had a warm winter, so the first quarter was tough in terms of the gas business. We've had some nice pick up since then. Some things have broken in our direction in terms of of operating expenses, in terms of weather, later in the—call it the second quarter for the gas business, a little bit of a pickup there. We had a purchase water pass-through pickup in Texas that I think I talked about on the last call. And then certainly this natural gas safe harbor has been beneficial because what it's done is really increased the eligibility of the pipe that we put into the ground.
So the more of that pipe is eligible for the tax repair benefit, and that's certainly been helpful here as well, in terms of making up for what we saw in the first quarter and helping us to get into that guidance range for full year. Presuming, again, as Chris said, that we've got normal weather here in November and December.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Senior Research Analyst of Power, Utilities and Renewables)
Totally appreciate it. Appreciate the time, guys.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
All right. Thanks, Julien.
Operator (participant)
Durgesh Chopra from Evercore, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra (Managing Director of Equity Research in Power and Utilities)
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, just can you give us maybe a bit more clarity on, as you file this rate case, how should we think about disclosures, whether it's long term earnings growth guidance, when to expect that? Will that be in December or, you know, on the Q4 call? Just anything that you can share there in terms of timing.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, I think what we'll do on that, Durgesh, is provide guidance consistent with what we've done over the past few years, which is sort of a January, February timing there.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, as I mentioned, Durgesh, our board meets in the next couple of weeks, actually mid-December, and we don't approve the budget until then. So, we'll provide guidance, as Dan said, on our normal schedule.
Durgesh Chopra (Managing Director of Equity Research in Power and Utilities)
Okay, got you. I just wanted to make sure there was no changes there, given the rate filing. Sounds like you're going to follow basically what you've done in past years. Okay.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yep, that's right.
Durgesh Chopra (Managing Director of Equity Research in Power and Utilities)
Okay, perfect. And then just, you know, can you talk about the PFAS, PFAS? I think in the last call, you might have highlighted $350 million in incremental capital opportunity, if I captured that correctly. How has that view evolved or changed? Do you see that as potentially raising your capital, like, your $1.1 billion run rate capital going forward? Just any color that you can share there, please.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, sure. I mentioned that we've now upped our estimate from $350 million to $450 million, and so it will increase our spend. However, what we've also said, we continue to look at our capital budget and opportunities to displace other projects that maybe don't have the same level of urgency as the PFAS mitigation does. And so we don't see it as a material change to our capital guidance and spend over the next few years. Having said that, you know, listen, $450 million to mitigate PFAS is a big deal, and it's a, it's a, it's a, you know, several sets of projects, right, as you do it across the company. It will be time, energy, and cost, but we just don't see it as a major adder to the capital budget.
Durgesh Chopra (Managing Director of Equity Research in Power and Utilities)
That's perfectly clear. Thanks, guys. I appreciate you giving me time.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Take care, Durgesh.
Operator (participant)
Gregg Orrill from UBS, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Gregg.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Good morning, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Utilities)
Hey, good morning. Yeah, following up there on PFAS, just, has anything changed about the timing of potentially getting proceeds from the legal arena to offset the PFAS investments that I guess, the consequence of that would be that you're thinking about PFAS as more of a rate base eligible investment at this point?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. So if we think about the recoveries from lawsuits against what's called the 3M and so forth, we have some key decisions to be made. The whole industry actually does early in December here. Those decisions are, do you stay in with you know with the group with the class action or do you separate and assume you can do better on your own? Those decisions are currently under discussion in all of the companies. We're an exception. And then I think the prevailing thought is that should we stay in and get our piece of some of those settlements, it would be paid out over a 10-year period.
And, you know, so the capital that we would spend, Gregg, would be largely done and invested and recovered before the main portion of, of the, of the proceeds of, of a, of a settlement would come through. And so whether that would be end up being an offset to operating costs or how we would account for it, I think, yet to be decided, but I think that's generally how we think about it.
Gregg Orrill (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Utilities)
How does the PFAS capital investment relate to your capital budgeting plan and guidance?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah-
Gregg Orrill (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Utilities)
What are your guys-
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, it's embedded, and we'll, of course, we'll update it. But, we don't see a material change to our overall capital budget. You know, we're always measuring ourselves against affordability, and so we may spread some of the projects that are in our current plan out a little bit further. Not bad for investors, but in short term, focus more on PFAS in that capital budget. I'm not saying there won't be any increase, but it won't be material.
Gregg Orrill (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Utilities)
Okay, thanks for the update.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
You got it.
Operator (participant)
Jonathan Reeder from Wells Fargo, please go ahead with your question.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Jonathan.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Hey, good morning, Chris. Thanks for squeezing me in. A lot of my questions have already been asked, but just kind of curious, was the Q3 2023 weather, was that below normal, or was Q3 2022 just above normal, making the Q over, you know, quarter-over-quarter comps tougher on the water side?
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
You know, I, I guess I would think about it on a state-by-state basis. So we certainly had in our northern states a little bit, certainly rainier weather, and so I would attribute less water usage to that. In our southern states, though, we had higher consumption in both Texas and in North Carolina, indicating that, you know, weather there was a little better, if you will, than normal. So it's, it's geographically specific.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Okay. But overall, I mean, with the North being a lot bigger, it was-
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Below normal weather in Q3.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, that's why you saw that consumption-related impact, if you will, in the revenue waterfall.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Yeah. Okay. Did you guys, I mean, have to do more on the kind of the O&M expense mitigation side than in Q3 to kind of offset that weather headwind, or, you know, just the measures you already, you already had in place kind of put you in a good spot?
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Well, I think as we've been talking about in these calls since the beginning of the year, we're really, we're really, trying to have a laser focus on our operating expenses this year. And it's, you know, it's, it's always been part of our culture, but ensuring that it's a daily focus for our operating team. So I, I would say we've just continued more of the same in that regard.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Okay. And then, in terms of the East Whiteland, you know, proceeding, does the fact that the case is now appealed to the Supreme Court mean that the lower court denied, I guess, the request for rehearing? And then, you know, what happens if the Supreme Court doesn't hear the case or upholds the lower court's order?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. So, yeah, yes, to your first answer, the first question. So that's why it's going to Supreme Court, where, and we've asked for an audience there. If the Supreme Court were to not take it or rule against us, I think same effect, the lower court ruling would stand.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
And then the deal will get unwound somehow, but, like, who, who owns it if East Whiteland doesn't want to own it?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. So, here's I think pragmatically how to think about it. We would probably need to just refile, and we have to articulate the, you know, the affirmative benefits, if we, if you will. What the Office of Consumer Advocate is really picking apart in the case is the fact that in their mind, the commission didn't articulate those affirmative benefits in the case. They really referred to the fact that we're a large, capable utility, that we could handle this, and that was the benefit. So the OCA just felt that they didn't go far enough in articulating or didn't articulate to the satisfaction of the OCA the benefits. We, I believe we did in our filing articulate those well.
Now, so it would probably be a refiling and, you know, whether there'd be a negotiation or some kind of a settlement discussion with the OCA. I don't want to put words in the OCA's mouth, but I—when a township doesn't want the utility back, we found plenty of opportunities to make improvements. We've obviously, if it had to go back, it would have to be refinanced at higher rates, bad for the township. An unwind is not a favorable thing for anybody. So I do think there is opportunity for settlement.
But, I think, some of that, Jonathan, could be tied up also in, hopefully, what's a further discussion with the commission on how do we make Fair Market Value a process that feels fair to everybody, including the Office of the Consumer Advocate, including to various customers who have strong feelings about this as well? So I see it as a sort of an intertwined effort here. Does that make sense?
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Yeah, no, it does. But how long does it take for the Supreme Court to, you know, kind of let you know if they're taking up the case and then, you know, ruling, like, would it be easier just to almost go down that refiling or reapproval path, you know, instead? Would that be more...?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Well, it might be, but I think just letting the court decision stand, as it currently sits, is not ideal for the industry. And so not to say we couldn't figure it, you know, listen, what it does, it says we got to be more sharply focused on impacts to customers, more sharply focused on affordability, and more sharply focused on the various issues that we articulate as affirmative public benefit of the transaction. And so that's really what the net effect is.
And so I would leave you with this, Jonathan. We're not going to just sit and let the court play out. We are going to actively work with the commission, the OCA and other parties to see if we can really come to some terms here that make sense going forward. 'Cause it has general effects on the industry and ability to do these transactions in an efficient way.
Jonathan Reeder (Equity Research Associate Analyst of Utilities)
Yeah. No, that, that makes sense. Okay, no, I appreciate you taking the time and looking forward to catching up next week.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yep, yeah. Look forward to it.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And, Ryan Connors from North Coast Research, please go ahead.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Ryan.
Ryan Connors (Managing Director and Research Analyst of Water Infrastructure and Technology)
Hey, great. Thanks for fitting me in. Hey, guys. So yeah, just, most of my stuff's been answered as well, but did want to get your take on, I guess there was a new, DSIC ROE set in Pennsylvania, with, with water set below, below gas and electric. And I guess there was, it was a four-to-one vote, and the dissenting commissioner did have some pretty strong words about, you know, that being a negative for, for water utilities in terms of, you know, you know, competing with other states' capital and that sort of thing. Any take on that, on that decision and both the tactical impact on earnings and the bigger picture, thoughts there?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, a couple thoughts. Maybe I'll, Dan may have some others as well. But number one, let's remember that at least right, right now, you know, we're still under our last rate case, ROE, so it really, that, that, this ROE does not impact, Aqua at this point. So, it will in the future, but it, it doesn't at this point. Secondly, the, as you, as you know, the decision that was recently made on the, DSIC is, they let it flat. They did not increase it. And I think Commissioner Yanora thought it should be increased like electric, which, you know, listen, we share that thought as well. But, the commission is looking at, you know, their various measures, and they'll make those decisions.
I think we're still feel good about the overall ROE that we could get in a case. But you know, these are decisions that the commission weighs and looks at the numbers after after you know, each decision or before each decision. So Dan, I don't know if you have anything to add to that.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
I think you generally covered it, Chris, but I would add, and maybe just to clarify, the reason that we're still under our prior ROE, our rate case ROE, if you will, is because we had a litigated outcome in that case. So then that trumps the DSIC ROE that's been stated here by the commission. But as you know, it's a bit of a tale of two cities on these DSIC ROEs, because on the gas side, the ROE is nicely above 10%. I think it's 10.15%, whereas that water ROE has been dropped. So as we go into the gas rate case for the gas DSIC ROE of 10.15%, I think we feel pretty good about our ability to achieve a nice outcome in terms of ROE in this upcoming case.
Ryan Connors (Managing Director and Research Analyst of Water Infrastructure and Technology)
Yeah. Okay, no, that, that's a very helpful color. And then, yeah, sticking with the gas side, Dan. So West Virginia divested. What about Kentucky? Is that, is that any shift in the thinking there, or is that Kentucky piece big enough where you consider that to be, to be core?
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, the Kentucky piece is a nice subsidiary. It's like any of our water subsidiaries, and we view that to be core to the business that we have.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
I was just in Kentucky last week, Ryan, and you know, we think the commission is a constructive commission down there. We met with all the commissioners, and we would actually like to grow in the water business down there. So, you know, it's a relatively new state for us, but there's opportunity for some growth down there as well.
Ryan Connors (Managing Director and Research Analyst of Water Infrastructure and Technology)
Yep. Okay. And then finally, just I appreciate your comments, Chris, on this tragic incident. Must be very tough for everybody involved. But you know, in terms of what that says about you know, the big picture for gas, I know it's one of the ironies is, you know, you mentioned earlier, the gas traded at a discount to water in terms of the stock price, but rate-based growth is actually faster than water.
I mean, I would imagine that even though that's you know, the company's not culpable, that really heightens the focus on many investments that need to be made and the type of thing that can happen if those investments aren't made. So I mean, does that kind of just reinforce the rate-based growth outlook that's above water? Just what are your thoughts on that in terms of just, you know, that rate base growth in gas relative to electric?
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, listen, as a general theme, I think that's right. This specific case, as determined by the fire marshal, was work being done inside a home and not our equipment or our pipes. So just want to make that clarification. But generally, yeah, the safer the system and the more environmentally friendly the system is, the better off we all are as a society, better off we are as a company, and the better off our customers are as well. That's why we continue to be, you know, laser-focused on meeting our LTIIP work, you know, as outlined by the PUC, and implementing the miles and miles of pipeline replacement that we've already accomplished and that we plan to do in our upcoming three to five years.
You know, that work, coupled with, you know, some other work we're trying to do around hydrogen and other, you know, innovative ideas, I think will come together and hopefully make it even more environmentally friendly in the future, and safer.
Ryan Connors (Managing Director and Research Analyst of Water Infrastructure and Technology)
Got it. Thanks for your time today.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
You got it. Thank you.
Dan Schuller (EVP and CFO)
Take care.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. With this, I'd like to hand the call back over to Chris Franklin for any additional or closing remarks. Over to you, sir.
Chris Franklin (Chairman and CEO)
As always, we're available for follow-up. I really appreciate your time and questions today. But, Brian, Renee, Dan, myself, we're all available for follow-up questions at your convenience. Have a great day.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.