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Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results: revenue $7.61M and GAAP EPS $(0.32); both missed S&P Global consensus (revenue $10.53M*, EPS $(0.296)*) as collaboration revenue came in light and operating expenses rose sequentially .
  • Clinical execution drove the quarter: WVE-007 (INHBE siRNA) showed robust, durable Activin E reductions up to 85% with six-month durability at the lowest dose; WVE-006 (RNA editing) met key AATD goals including >20 µM total AAT during an acute response, de-risking the approach .
  • Cash runway extended into Q2 2027 after $72.1M in ATM proceeds and committed GSK milestones post-quarter, providing funding through multiple readouts (INLIGHT, RestorAATion-2, DMD NDA work) .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: INLIGHT Cohort 2 (240 mg) 3-month body composition/weight data in Q4’25, with additional cohort updates through 1H’26; AATD 400 mg multidose data in Q1’26 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • WVE-007 target engagement: “highly significant and durable Activin E reductions” post single dose, up to 85%, with six-month durability at the lowest cohort; supports once/twice-yearly dosing .
    • WVE-006 met AATD treatment goals: basal AAT ~13 µM, M‑AAT 64% of total, Z‑AAT −60%, and dynamic physiologic response >20 µM during acute inflammation—key validation of RNA editing in humans .
    • Balance sheet flexibility: cash/cash equivalents $196.2M at 9/30 and subsequent $72.1M ATM plus committed GSK milestones extend runway into Q2’27, de-risking near-term financing .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Consensus misses: Q3 revenue $7.61M vs $10.53M* and EPS $(0.32) vs $(0.296)*; similar shortfalls in Q1 and Q2 reflect collaboration revenue timing and rising OpEx .
    • OpEx creep: R&D $45.9M (Q3) vs $43.5M (Q2) and G&A $18.1M (Q3) vs $18.0M (Q2); net loss widened to $(53.9)M QoQ .
    • Sequential revenue decline: $7.61M (Q3) vs $8.70M (Q2) and $9.18M (Q1); while YoY comparison is distorted by negative revenue in Q3’24, collaboration revenue remains volatile .

Financial Results

Selected P&L and cash (USD millions, except per-share); periods oldest → newest

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$9.18 $8.70 $7.61
GAAP EPS$(0.29) $(0.31) $(0.32)
Net Loss$(46.88) $(50.47) $(53.85)
R&D Expense$40.62 $43.47 $45.87
G&A Expense$18.36 $17.99 $18.09
Cash & Equivalents (end)$243.08 $208.48 $196.22

Consensus comparison (S&P Global) and surprise

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue – Actual ($M)$9.18 $8.70 $7.61
Revenue – Consensus ($M)$11.34*$10.28*$10.53*
Revenue Surprise ($M / %)$(2.16) / −19.0%*$(1.58) / −15.4%*$(2.92) / −27.7%*
EPS – Actual ($)$(0.29) $(0.31) $(0.32)
EPS – Consensus ($)$(0.256)*$(0.284)*$(0.296)*
EPS Surprise ($)$(0.034)*$(0.026)*$(0.024)*

Margins (calculated)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Loss Margin (%)−510.9% (calc. from )−580.3% (calc. from )−707.9% (calc. from )

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Weighted Avg. Shares (basic/diluted)162.53M 163.99M 167.74M
Cash Runway (mgmt)Into 2027 Into 2027 Into Q2 2027 (post-ATM, GSK milestones)

Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayCorporate“Into 2027” (Q1/Q2’25) Into Q2 2027 post $72.1M ATM and committed GSK milestones Maintained/clarified timeline
INLIGHT (WVE-007) data cadence4Q’25–2Q’26Cohort 1 & 2 in 4Q’25; Cohort 3 in 1Q’26 4Q’25: 3-mo Cohort 2 and Cohort 1; 1Q’26: 6-mo Cohort 2, 3-mo Cohort 3; 2Q’26: 6-mo Cohort 3, 3-mo Cohort 4 Expanded specificity and cadence
RestorAATion-2 (WVE-006)1Q’26/2026200 mg multi/single in 3Q’25; 400 mg single fall’25 400 mg multidose data in 1Q’26; 600 mg single/multidose in 2026 Shifted to next phases
WVE‑N531 (DMD)NDA2026 NDA plan 2026 NDA plan reiterated Maintained
WVE‑003 (HD)INDIND 2H 2025 On track IND 2H 2025 Maintained

No quantitative revenue/EPS/OpEx/tax guidance provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Obesity (WVE‑007)Dosed/expanded early cohorts; projected therapeutic dose; 4Q’25 data Dose-dependent Activin E KD up to 85%; 6‑mo durability; US sites online; maintenance-therapy positioning; multi-cohort update cadence Strengthening momentum
RNA editing (WVE‑006, AATD)Proof-of-mechanism; 200/400 mg cohorts; 3Q’25/Fall’25 data Achieved MZ phenotype markers; >20 µM AAT during acute event; 400 mg multidose in 1Q’26; 600 mg in 2026 De-risked; extended plan
DMD (WVE‑N531)48‑wk efficacy, dystrophin consistency, FDA path; NDA 2026 Focus on monthly regimen; consistency across patients; NDA timing unchanged Steady
HD (WVE‑003)FDA supportive on imaging; IND 2H’25 Alignment on MRI endpoint; partner discussions ongoing Steady; partner-oriented
FinancingRunway into 2027 (Q1/Q2) Into Q2 2027 post ATM/GSK milestones Slightly extended clarity

Management Commentary

  • “We shared the first-ever demonstration of Activin E reductions in a clinical trial … with a single dose of WVE‑007 … highly significant and durable … exceeding levels needed … to drive meaningful weight loss and prevent rebound weight gain following cessation of a GLP‑1.” — CEO .
  • “We … restore a ZZ participant’s ability to respond to an acute inflammatory event with total AAT levels of greater than 20 micromolar just two weeks after a single dose of 006.” — CEO .
  • “Revenue for Q3 2025 was $7.6 million … net loss was $53.9 million … Subsequent to quarter end, an additional $72.1 million in ATM proceeds and committed GSK milestones extended our expected cash runway into Q2 2027.” — CFO .
  • “There was a clear recognition for the need for non‑incretin treatment approaches … 007’s potential … without the negative GLP‑1 class effects and with the convenience of once to twice‑a‑year dosing.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Obesity biomarkers/kinetics: Management anchored efficacy expectations at ≥6 months given slower kinetics vs GLP‑1s; near-term readouts will emphasize Activin E durability, body composition, and metabolic biomarkers at 3 months (Cohort 2) .
  • Safety/lipids: No preclinical evidence of hepatic lipid deposition despite lipolysis; FDA allowed US start at 600 mg after safety review .
  • AATD acute response: Company will opportunistically capture further acute-phase events (e.g., illness/flu shots) via CRP/AAT tracking; basal editing level suggests MZ-like phenotype .
  • DMD regulatory: Confidence in dystrophin as surrogate remains; Wave emphasized consistent dystrophin distribution across patients and functional benefit (Time-to-Rise) .
  • HD imaging endpoint: Continued FDA alignment on MRI (caudate atrophy) as primary endpoint within a placebo-controlled design .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $7.61M vs $10.53M* (−27.7%); EPS $(0.32) vs $(0.296)* (−$0.024). Q1 and Q2 also below consensus on revenue and EPS as collaboration revenue phased lower than modeled amid rising R&D to fund 007/006 .
  • Implication: Street models may need to reflect revenue timing variability under GSK collaboration and higher near-term OpEx to sustain clinical cadence; magnitude of 4Q’25 obesity readouts (body composition/weight) could drive estimate revisions.
    Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The scientific narrative strengthened: 007’s potent, durable target engagement and 006’s achievement of physiologic AAT responses reduce modality risk and broaden optionality across obesity and AATD .
  • Financials were secondary to pipeline: misses vs consensus reflect revenue timing and stepped-up R&D; focus shifts to data cadence and durability/weight-loss translation in humans .
  • Near-term trading setup hinges on Q4’25 obesity updates (Cohort 2 3‑month body composition/weight): positive signals could catalyze re‑rating; slower kinetics or safety flags would pressure sentiment .
  • 1H’26 is data-rich (006 400 mg multidose; 007 Cohort 3 and 4 follow-ups): sustained positive readouts could unlock partnership/financing leverage before major Phase 2/3 spend .
  • DMD remains a 2026 NDA story; consistent dystrophin and monthly dosing regimen are differentiators amid evolving FDA views on surrogate endpoints .
  • Runway into Q2’27 reduces near-term dilution risk, but serial data delivery remains critical to maintain access to capital on favorable terms .
  • No non-GAAP add-backs or revenue/OpEx guidance; model prudently for collaboration revenue variability and R&D intensity through 2026 .

Sources

  • Q3 2025 8‑K press release (financials, pipeline updates): .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks, Q&A): .
  • Other relevant press release (AATD data, 9/3/25): .
  • Prior quarters’ 8‑K earnings releases: Q2 2025 ; Q1 2025 .
  • S&P Global consensus (revenue/EPS): values marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.