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Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 returned to profitability as collaboration revenue recognition drove revenue to $83.7M and net income to $29.3M; cash ended at $302.1M with runway into 2027 . CFO noted the quarter’s step-up was “primarily” from recognition of deferred revenue under the Takeda collaboration .
  • Clinical execution advanced across programs: dosing ongoing in INLIGHT (WVE-007, obesity; initial data 2H 2025), multi-dosing initiated in RestorAATion-2 (WVE-006, AATD; multi-dose data in 2025), FORWARD-53 48-week data and regulatory feedback targeted in 1Q 2025, and WVE-003 Phase 2/3 IND planned for 2H 2025 .
  • Strategic validation: first-ever therapeutic RNA editing in humans (WVE-006) achieved in Oct 2024, with single-dose mean total AAT 10.8 μM and M‑AAT 6.9 μM (≥60% of total) at day 15; durable through day 57 .
  • Stock reaction catalysts near term: FORWARD-53 48-week dystrophin and regulator feedback (1Q 2025); 2025 multi-dose AATD data; 2H 2025 INLIGHT obesity readout; WVE-003 HD IND (2H 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Returned to profitability with Q4 revenue of $83.7M vs. $29.1M prior-year; net income of $29.3M vs. ($16.3M) prior-year; cash runway into 2027 .
  • Landmark modality validation: “first-ever clinical demonstration of RNA editing in humans” with WVE‑006, achieving total AAT of 10.8 μM and M‑AAT 6.9 μM after a single 200 mg dose, with durability to day 57 .
  • Pipeline momentum and strategic positioning: “WVE-007…designed to drive weight reduction…with doses just once or twice a year,” highlighting differentiation vs. GLP‑1s; “2024 was an exceptional year for Wave” .

What Went Wrong

  • Operating spend rose y/y: R&D $44.6M vs. $34.1M (Q4), G&A $16.1M vs. $13.7M (Q4); full-year net loss widened to $97.0M (2024) from $57.5M (2023) .
  • Prior quarter volatility: Q3 revenue was negative ($7.7M) due to non-cash timing adjustments under revenue recognition; net loss ($61.8M) in Q3 2024 .
  • No quantitative 2025 P&L guidance; milestone timing remains the focus (clinical catalysts rather than financial targets) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$19.692 ($7.676) $83.748
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)($32.923) ($61.780) $29.253
EPS – Basic ($)($0.25) ($0.47) $0.18
EPS – Diluted ($)($0.25) ($0.47) $0.17
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$40.393 $41.197 $44.645
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$14.296 $15.042 $16.136
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Period-End) ($USD Millions)$153.958 $310.948 $302.078
Net Income Margin (%)(167.3%) 804.9% 34.9%

Notes: Net income margin is calculated from cited revenue and net income and reflects collaboration accounting volatility; Q3 negative revenue creates non-comparable percentage .

  • EPS/Revenue vs Estimates: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of analysis due to API rate limits; comparison to Street estimates could not be completed.

No reportable segment breakdowns disclosed.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q3 2024)Current Guidance (Q4 2024)Change
INLIGHT (WVE‑007; obesity) key data2025Trial initiation expected 1Q 2025 Trial initiated; clinical PoC data 2H 2025 Increased specificity; status advanced
RestorAATion‑2 (WVE‑006; AATD)2025Multi‑dose data in 2025 Multi‑dosing ongoing (200 mg Q2W); multi‑dose data in 2025 Maintained timing; program advanced
FORWARD‑53 (WVE‑N531; DMD)1Q 202548‑week data + regulatory feedback in 1Q 2025 48‑week data + regulatory feedback in 1Q 2025 Maintained
WVE‑003 (HD) IND for Ph2/32H 2025IND submission expected 2H 2025 IND submission expected 2H 2025 Maintained
Cash RunwayThrough 2027Into 2027 Into 2027 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
RNA editing (WVE‑006, AATD)Dosing initiated in RestorAATion‑2; PoM expected 4Q 2024 First-ever clinical RNA editing achieved; single-dose M‑AAT 6.9 μM, total AAT 10.8 μM; multi-dosing underway; higher-dose 400 mg SAD started Strong positive inflection; modality de‑risked
Obesity (WVE‑007, INHBE siRNA)Preclinical data suggested monotherapy, add‑on, maintenance potential; clinical start 1Q 2025 INLIGHT Phase 1 initiated; initial data 2H 2025; positioned for fat loss with muscle preservation, 1–2x/year dosing Program advanced; clarity on timelines
DMD (WVE‑N531)24‑week interim: 9% dystrophin (ambulatory), strong delivery; 48‑week + regulator feedback 1Q 2025 48‑week data by month‑end; regulator feedback expected in line; discussion of functional trends, PMO switchers opportunity Awaiting pivotal readout; constructive tone
HD (WVE‑003)FDA receptive to biomarker path incl. caudate; Orphan Drug; IND 2H 2025 Caudate atrophy correlation reiterated; potential for mHTT as surrogate discussed; plan for global Ph2/3 using caudate endpoint Regulatory optionality improving
Financial postureCash $310.9M (Q3); runway into 2027 Cash $302.1M (Q4); runway into 2027; Q4 revenue step‑up from Takeda deferral recognition Stable runway; P&L volatility persists

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was an exceptional year for Wave…with the initiation of dosing in the INLIGHT trial with WVE‑007…We remain on track to report our DMD 48‑week clinical results of WVE‑N531 this month.”
  • “WVE‑007…is designed to drive weight reduction…without impacting muscle mass with doses just once or twice a year.”
  • On AATD editing metrics: “At…200 mg, we saw…therapeutically relevant levels…total AAT…~11 micromolar…[and] over 60%…M‑protein…best way to benchmark…editing efficiencies.”
  • CFO: “The quarter‑over‑quarter increase [in revenue] was driven primarily by the recognition of the remainder of the deferred revenue under our Takeda collaboration.”

Q&A Highlights

  • AATD baselines and endpoints: Management emphasized tracking M‑AAT (0 at baseline in ZZ patients) as the cleanest cross‑program editing efficiency marker, given total AAT can be confounded by aggregate dynamics .
  • Obesity body‑composition readouts: DXA scans will be used to confirm fat loss with muscle preservation, consistent with preclinical data; specifics on scan timing not disclosed yet .
  • DMD 48‑week scenarios: Expect assessment of dystrophin kinetics over the additional 6 months, muscle health/repair markers, and trends in sensitive functional measures; PMO switcher opportunity highlighted .
  • HD regulatory path: If mHTT‐lowering becomes an accepted “reasonably likely” surrogate, Wave could potentially file off existing data; otherwise pursuing a caudate‑atrophy endpoint in Ph2/3 .
  • Dose/safety across modalities: Discussed exploring upper bounds for ADAR editing durability and potency, supported by multi‑dose human safety experience; siRNA chemistry noted for improved Ago2 loading and durability .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of request due to API rate limits; therefore, we could not benchmark results versus Street expectations. We will update the comparison once access resumes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Collaboration revenue recognition drove a profitable Q4; however, inherent revenue timing can create quarter-to-quarter volatility (e.g., Q3 negative revenue), so focus on cash runway (into 2027) and clinical catalysts for valuation inflections .
  • WVE‑006’s first‑in‑human RNA editing is a major platform de‑risking event; 2025 multi-dose patient data are key to validate durability and dose‑spacing toward registrational design .
  • INLIGHT (WVE‑007) is positioned to differentiate in obesity by targeting fat loss with muscle preservation and very infrequent dosing; initial human data in 2H 2025 are a significant sentiment driver .
  • DMD 48‑week readout and regulatory feedback in 1Q 2025 is the nearest stock catalyst; watch for dystrophin kinetics, muscle health markers, and functional trends to support an accelerated path .
  • In HD, the evolving regulatory environment (biomarker endpoints) could accelerate timelines; Wave’s allele-selective approach with caudate MRI endpoint offers a potentially efficient registrational path .
  • Operating spend is rising with pipeline breadth (R&D and G&A up y/y); liquidity is adequate, but non-dilutive milestones (e.g., GSK) and partnership optionality in HD could be incremental positives .
  • Absence of P&L guidance shifts focus to execution against 2025 milestones; timely delivery against these will be the primary driver of estimate revisions and multiple expansion .

Supporting Materials And Context

  • Q4 2024 8‑K and press release detail financials and pipeline updates, including cash $302.1M, revenue $83.7M, EPS $0.18 basic/$0.17 diluted .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript provides rationale for revenue recognition step-up (Takeda deferral) and program specifics across AATD, obesity, DMD, and HD .
  • Other relevant Q4 2024 press releases: First‑ever therapeutic RNA editing in humans (WVE‑006), a key validation event .
  • Prior quarters for trend: Q3 2024 results (negative revenue due to non-cash adjustment; cash raise increased liquidity) ; Q2 2024 results and pipeline milestones (SELECT‑HD data; FORWARD‑53 interim plan; RestorAATion‑2 start; WVE‑007 preclinical) .