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XCEL ENERGY INC (XEL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.81 (ongoing $0.81) on $3.12B of total operating revenue; net income was $464M. Full-year 2024 GAAP EPS was $3.44 and ongoing EPS $3.50, driven by increased recovery of infrastructure investments offset by higher D&A, interest and O&M .
  • Xcel reaffirmed 2025 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.75–$3.85 and reiterated long‑term targets: 6–8% EPS growth (upper half targeted) and 4–6% dividend growth with 50–60% payout ratio .
  • Management emphasized accelerating grid and generation investment amid robust data center and industrial load; five‑year base capex totals $45B with potential $10B+ incremental (transmission/RFPs/data centers) and ~40% equity/60% debt funding for incremental capital .
  • Wildfire items remain a watchpoint: Smokehouse Creek estimated losses of $215M (before insurance) with $210M insurance receivable recorded; Marshall Fire trial set for September 2025 with liability first, damages later; potential exposure could exceed ~$500M insurance limits in adverse outcomes .
  • Note: S&P Global consensus estimates were not accessible at run-time; vs‑consensus comparisons are therefore unavailable (we will flag “N/A”).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Delivered guidance for the 20th consecutive year; 2024 ongoing EPS $3.50 met range despite headwinds. CEO: “we delivered on our earnings guidance for the 20th year in a row….” ; reiterated on call .
    • Strategic execution: Sherco Solar Phase 1 in service; Harrington coal-to-gas conversion near completion; wind fleet availability reached 97% (best in 5 years, first‑quartile) supporting PTCs and lower bills .
    • Growth and grid thesis: 5‑year base capex $45B with >9% rate base CAGR; management targets upper half of 6–8% LT EPS growth; robust pipeline from MISO/SPP/Colorado/Minnesota resource plans .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 revenue fell 9% YoY to $3.12B (lower fuel/commodity pass‑through, PTC flow‑backs); operating income down to $347M vs $575M in Q4’23 .
    • Cost pressure: 2024 O&M up $96M on generation maintenance, storm response, wildfire mitigation and damage prevention; interest expense up $200M on higher debt/ rates .
    • Wildfire/legal overhang: $215M estimated Smokehouse Creek losses (before insurance) and Marshall Fire litigation continues; adverse outcomes could exceed ~$500M insurance .

Financial Results

  • Core P&L vs prior year and prior quarter
MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Operating Revenues ($B)$3.44 $3.64 $3.12
Operating Income ($B)$0.58 $0.91 $0.35
Net Income ($B)$0.41 $0.68 $0.46
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.74 $1.21 $0.81
Ongoing Diluted EPS ($)$0.83 $1.25 $0.81
Total Operating Expenses ($B)$2.87 $2.73 $2.77
  • Segment/line-of-business revenue (quarterly)
Revenue Line ($B)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Electric$2.70 $2.41
Natural Gas$0.72 $0.70
Other$0.03 $0.02
Total Operating Revenues$3.44 $3.12

  • KPIs and drivers (select)

    • Estimated weather impact on EPS (Q4’24 vs Normal): Retail electric −$0.015; firm natural gas −$0.021; total −$0.036 .
    • Sales mix Q4’24 actual YoY: Total retail electric sales +3.4% across Xcel; firm natural gas −0.9% (decoupling mitigants vary by jurisdiction) .
    • Effective tax rate: (177.8)% in Q4’24, primarily due to nuclear/wind/solar PTCs flowing back to customers (earnings‑neutral) .

  • Versus Estimates

    • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at run‑time; cells marked N/A.
Metric vs EstimatesQ4 2024 ActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($B)$3.12 N/AN/A
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.81 N/AN/A
Ongoing Diluted EPS ($)$0.81 N/AN/A

Note: S&P Global consensus values were not accessible during this session; vs‑estimate analysis is therefore N/A.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Ongoing EPSFY 2025$3.75–$3.85 (initiated Q3’24) $3.75–$3.85 (reaffirmed) Maintained
Long‑term EPS GrowthMulti‑year6–8% (updated Q3’24) 6–8% (upper half targeted) Maintained
Dividend Growth ObjectiveMulti‑year4–6% (updated Q3’24) 4–6% Maintained
Quarterly Dividend2025 run‑rate$0.5475 (2024) $0.57 (annual $2.28), +4.1% Raised

Key 2025 planning assumptions (select): ~3% weather‑normalized electric sales growth; ~1% gas; capital rider revenue +$260–$270M (net of PTCs); O&M +~3%; D&A +$210–$220M; property taxes +$55–$65M; net interest +$165–$175M; AFUDC‑equity +$110–$120M .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2’24 and Q3’24)Current Period (Q4’24)Trend
Data center/AI loadIntroduced 5‑yr plan with 5% electric sales CAGR; ~50% from data centers; ~9,000 MW opportunity; signed Meta/QTS deals; land sales incl. Microsoft; contracting cadence building .Pipeline unchanged (~8.9–9 GW); expect to execute remaining contracts in base plan by fall; discussions post “DeepSeek” show no slowdown; 2025 sales growth guide 3% with higher growth thereafter .Strengthening pipeline and visibility.
Transmission buildColorado Power Pathway underway; MISO LRTP/Tranche 2; SPP ITP pipeline ~$3–4B company share potential .MISO Tranche 2.1 and SPP ITP board approvals highlighted; $3–4B potential above base plan .Positive momentum; incremental capex line‑of‑sight.
Wildfire mitigationFiled Colorado WMP (~$1.9B, 2025–27); Texas resiliency plan incoming; insurance premium deferral sought .Expanded operational mitigations (EPSS/PSPS), AI cameras, weather stations; CO WMP and TX SRP settlement paths/schedules discussed (CO settlement deadline mid‑Apr; decision late Aug 2025) .Execution progressing; regulatory outcomes pending.
Tariffs/supply chainCompany experienced prior tariff cycles; procurement strategies in place (Q&A recurring) .China tariffs not surprising; diversified sourcing/forward planning to mitigate price/schedule risk .Managed risk; no material plan changes.
Capital/financing$45B 5‑yr base plan; $10B+ incremental; equity via ATM in 2024 (~$1.1B) to preserve credit; 40/60 equity/debt for incremental .2024 forward equity ~$1.4B; 2025–29 plan includes ~$15.2B new debt and ~$4.5B equity; credit metrics prioritized .Balanced plan; de‑risked near‑term equity.
RegulatoryMN gas case settlement; CO gas case order; MN electric rate case filed (two‑year ask) .MN electric interim rates ($192M) effective Jan 1, 2025; ND electric and gas updates; resource plan settlement in MN includes CTs/storage and nuclear life extensions .Generally constructive cadence.

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and performance: “We posted ongoing earnings of $3.50 per share… delivering within our guidance range for the 20th consecutive year… Our 5‑year base capital plan delivers rate base growth in excess of 9% and should deliver long‑term EPS growth in the upper half of our 6% to 8% guidance range.” — CEO Bob Frenzel .
  • Clean energy execution: “Sherco’s solar project [Phase 1] started commercial operations… Harrington coal plant conversion to natural gas [near completion]… our wind fleet achieved availability of 97%…” .
  • Grid and resiliency: “We… completed installation of 42 AI‑equipped cameras and 25 utility‑pole‑mounted weather stations in Colorado with many more planned…” .
  • Cost discipline and affordability: “Our average residential electric and natural gas bills are 28% and 12% below the national average… since 2020, our continuous improvement programs have generated nearly $500 million of sustainable savings…” .
  • CFO summary: “We issued nearly $1.4 billion in forward equity in 2024… resolved 113 of the 199 submitted [Smokehouse Creek] claims… $73 million in settlement agreements… no change to our estimated liability of $215 million.” — CFO Brian Van Abel .

Q&A Highlights

  • Federal/EOs and permitting: Projects not expected to be impacted; company supports broad permitting reform; no offshore wind/federal land exposure; transferability embedded ~$700M/yr (revenue reduction offset by tax) .
  • Transferability mechanics: Bilateral with tax‑paying entities; company not using direct pay; 2024 executed ~$400–$500M; targeting $700M+ annually .
  • Data centers cadence: Expect to sign remaining contracts in 5‑year base by fall; announcements vary by counterparty/regulatory needs; regional and customer diversity emphasized .
  • Dispatchable resources: New gas CTs across systems (low capacity factors) for reliability; conversions from coal continue; aligns with 80% carbon reduction by 2030 .
  • 2025 outlook: Management “comfortable” with plan; offsets reduce perceived headwinds; targeting midpoint of guidance .
  • Wildfire policy and litigation: Active dialogues at state/federal level; Colorado Marshall Fire trial remains set for Sept 2025 (liability first, damages later); company disputes negligence assertions .
  • Tariffs/supply chain: Prior tariff experience; procurement flexibility to mitigate impacts on renewable buildout .
  • Labor availability: Proactive trade/IBEW partnerships, vendor signaling, and workforce development to support capex ramp .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS were not accessible during this session; vs‑consensus comparisons are N/A. We recommend refreshing S&P Global consensus to assess any beat/miss and the magnitude of estimate revisions post‑print.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Through‑cycle delivery: 20 years of meeting annual EPS guidance and reaffirmed 2025 range support the “execution premium” despite near‑term O&M/interest headwinds .
  • Structural load growth: Multi‑year data center and Permian electrification create durable sales growth (3% in 2025; higher thereafter), underpinning a long runway of T&D and resource capex .
  • Capex optionality: $45B base through 2029 with visible upside from MISO/SPP and multiple RFPs; incremental ~$10B+ could raise medium‑term trajectory, subject to regulatory execution .
  • Balance sheet/financing: 2024 forward equity de‑risked near‑term needs; 2025–29 plan balances debt/equity while protecting credit metrics; dividend growth moderated to support self‑funding .
  • Regulatory cadence constructive: Interim rates in MN, CO gas case outcome, and MN resource plan settlement point to continued recovery of investments and support for reliability/wildfire mitigation .
  • Wildfire remains a swing factor: Claims progress and insurance receivables help, but Smokehouse Creek/Marshall carry tail risk; monitor CO WMP and TX SRP outcomes plus litigation milestones .
  • Trading setup: Narrative sensitive to incremental data center contract announcements, MISO/SPP awards, and CO/MN regulatory decisions; lack of estimates comparison (S&P data unavailable here) should be updated promptly for beat/miss context.

Citations: All figures and quotations are sourced from Xcel Energy’s Q4 2024 8‑K earnings release and supplemental disclosures –, Q4 2024 earnings call transcript –, prior quarter earnings releases/transcripts – – –, and relevant press releases .