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Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered record revenue and a clean beat vs consensus: total revenue $60.12M (+47.9% YoY) vs Street $57.61M; EPS -$0.06 vs Street -$0.066; guidance tightened to $260M–$275M (from $255M–$275M) on portfolio momentum, especially Recorlev .*
  • Mix improved: gross margin rose to 85% (+200 bps QoQ) on favorable product mix; Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $4.38M, demonstrating operating leverage despite higher SG&A tied to Recorlev expansion .
  • Recorlev became the largest product: $25.53M (+141% YoY) on +124% YoY growth in average patients; Gvoke grew 26% YoY to $20.85M with TRx +8% YoY; Keveyis was resilient at $11.43M, slightly up sequentially vs Q4 .
  • Catalyst stack: Investor Day on June 3 (XP-8121 update, Recorlev outlook) and Gvoke VialDx sNDA approval with American Regent commercialization (availability expected Q3 2025), with approval milestone already booked in Q1 other revenue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Recorlev growth and patient adds: “revenue for Recorlev was up 141%, exceeding $25 million… average number of patients on therapy grew 124% compared to the same period in 2024,” reflecting effective commercial investment .
  • Margin and EBITDA inflection: gross margin 85% (+200 bps QoQ) on favorable mix; Adjusted EBITDA +$4.38M, aligned with management’s goal to remain positive going forward .
  • Guidance tightened higher: bottom end raised to $260M, implying ~32% full-year growth at midpoint; management confidence underscored by consistent momentum and execution .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss persists: Q1 net loss -$9.22M; EPS -$0.06 as SG&A increased 15% YoY due to the Recorlev commercial expansion and personnel costs .
  • Keveyis YoY decline: -12.7% YoY to $11.43M due to fewer shipments, though sequential revenue and patients were slightly up .
  • Macro watchpoint (tariffs): management addressed sector-specific tariff chatter; vast majority of operations are U.S.-based and no material impact expected, but it remains a monitored risk .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$40.64 $60.10 $60.12
GAAP EPS ($USD)-$0.14 -$0.03 -$0.06
Gross Margin (%)N/A84% 85%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$4.07 $8.30 $4.38
Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Recorlev$10.60 $22.61 $25.53
Gvoke$16.58 $23.26 $20.85
Keveyis$13.09 $11.12 $11.43
Royalty/Contract/Other$0.38 $3.10 $2.32
Total Revenue$40.64 $60.10 $60.12
KPIsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Recorlev Avg Patients YoY Growth (%)125% 123% 124%
Recorlev Net Rev Sequential Change ($M)+$2.7 vs Q2 (context) +$4.9 vs Q3 +$3.0 vs Q4
Gvoke Prescriptions YoY Growth (%)20% 18% 8%
Shares Outstanding (Millions)~149.08 (Oct-31) 149.09 (Q4 WA) 160.16 (Apr-30 actual)

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue – Actual ($M)40.64 60.10 60.12
Revenue – Consensus ($M)41.81*58.54*57.61*
EPS – Actual ($)-0.14 -0.03 -0.06
EPS – Consensus ($)-0.117*-0.063*-0.066*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Highlights: Q1 2025 revenue beat (+$2.51M) and EPS beat (+$0.006), Q4 2024 revenue beat (+$1.56M) and EPS beat (+$0.033). Bold indicates notable beats: Q1 2025 revenue and EPS were beats.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$255–$275 $260–$275 Raised bottom end
Gross Margin (%)FY 2025Modest improvement vs 2024 Modest improvement vs 2024 Maintained
SG&A GrowthFY 2025Mid- to high single-digit vs 2024 Mid- to high single-digit vs 2024 Maintained
R&D GrowthFY 2025Mid- to high single-digit vs 2024 Mid- to high single-digit vs 2024 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025Positive going forward Positive going forward Maintained
Interest Expense / DebtFY 2025Not specified$15M 2025 converts redeemed; interest savings in 2025 (partial in Q1, remainder Q2) New detail favorably lowers interest

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev-2)Q4 2024 (Prev-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Recorlev momentumRecord referrals; +126% new patient starts; 50% sales expansion; $17.7M (+119% YoY) $22.6M (+131% YoY); sequential +$5.0M; best-in-class positioning $25.5M (+141% YoY); avg patients +124%; sequential +$3.0M Accelerating growth; sustained patient adds
Gvoke penetrationTRx +20% YoY; share ~36–37%; back-to-school season strength $23.3M (+25% YoY); TRx +18% YoY; long runway to 2036 $20.8M (+26% YoY); TRx +8% YoY; market growth led by Xeris Steady growth; share gains moderate
Keveyis durabilityResilient despite generics; modest patient increases; pricing pressure Patient base held steady; expect pressure on reimbursement; durability emphasized $11.4M, slightly up QoQ; consistent through year expected Stable volumes; net pricing headwinds
Margins / EBITDA“North of 80%” GM; COGS write-off from capacity changes GM 84%; Adjusted EBITDA +$8.3M; positive go-forward GM 85% (+200bps QoQ); Adjusted EBITDA +$4.38M Improving margins with mix leverage
Tariffs / macroNot discussedNot discussedNo material impact expected; mostly U.S.-based operations; no China sourcing Monitoring; de minimis risk currently
Regulatory——FDA sNDA approval for Gvoke VialDx; American Regent commercialization; Q3 2025 availability New diagnostic revenue stream
R&D / XP-8121Phase II data; FDA engagement; update in H1’25 Phase III readiness; more detail midyear; major spend in 2026 Full update at June 3 Investor Day; pivotal design details coming Progressing; capital-light in 2025

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered another record-breaking performance, growing total revenue by 48%… we are raising the bottom end of our revenue guidance from $255 million to $260 million” – CEO John Shannon .
  • “Gross margin in the quarter was 85%. Sequentially, gross margin improved by 200 basis points… Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was a positive $4.4 million” – CFO Steven Pieper .
  • “Recorlev continues to distinguish itself as our fastest-growing and now our largest product… average number of patients on therapy grew 124%” – CEO John Shannon .
  • “We accelerated the redemption of our 2025 convertible notes, reducing our total debt by $15 million and… generating interest expense savings this year” – CFO Steven Pieper .

Q&A Highlights

  • Recorlev scale and infrastructure: Management sees significant market expansion; current sales force adequate after two expansions, with opportunistic future adds as demand grows; peak sales color to come at Investor Day .
  • Operational efficiency sustainability: Growth-led leverage (mix, disciplined OpEx) supports sustained positive Adjusted EBITDA; SG&A/R&D increases remain modest .
  • XP-8121 roadmap: Detailed pivotal design and timelines to be disclosed June 3; entering clinic expected around 2026; 2025 spend focused on Phase III readiness .
  • Glucagon competition: Xeris driving market growth; modest formulary changes in Q1 are behind; Gvoke TRx outgrowing market (8% vs ~5%) .
  • Tariffs and supply chain: Minimal expected impact; finished goods manufactured in U.S.; no China sourcing .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue $60.12M vs consensus $57.61M (beat); EPS -$0.06 vs -$0.066 (beat). Q4 2024: Revenue $60.10M vs $58.54M (beat); EPS -$0.03 vs -$0.063 (beat). FY 2025 consensus revenue $287.42M is above current guidance midpoint; expect Street to converge to tightened range. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
PeriodRevenue Actual ($M)Revenue Consensus ($M)EPS Actual ($)EPS Consensus ($)
Q1 202440.64 41.81*-0.14 -0.1167*
Q4 202460.10 58.54*-0.03 -0.0633*
Q1 202560.12 57.61*-0.06 -0.0660*
FY 2024203.07 201.51*-0.3161 -0.4050*
FY 2025N/A287.42*N/A-0.0367*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-driven operating leverage is evident: 85% gross margin and positive Adjusted EBITDA despite higher SG&A from Recorlev expansion—supports a re-rating narrative if sustained .
  • Recorlev is the primary growth engine with accelerating patient adds and now largest product; Investor Day may add upside with peak sales color and market expansion detail .
  • Gvoke steady growth continues, with new diagnostic indication (VialDx) adding a hospital channel partner-led opportunity starting Q3 2025; milestone revenue already recognized .
  • Guidance tightening to $260M–$275M and reiterated margin/OpEx commentary signal confidence; watch for further range tightening contingent on H1 execution .
  • Balance sheet actions reduce interest burden (2025 converts redemption); expect lower interest expense through 2025 vs prior run-rate .
  • Near-term trading: Stock may respond positively to beats and guide-up; June 3 Investor Day is a catalyst for XP-8121 clarity and Recorlev narrative—positioning ahead could capture sentiment shift .
  • Medium-term thesis: Multi-asset growth (Recorlev, Gvoke, Keveyis durability) plus pipeline optionality (XP-8121) under disciplined OpEx and improving margin profile supports de-risking path to self-sustaining operations .

Footnotes:
Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure; see company reconciliations in Q1 2025 press release/8-K .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*