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Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q4 2024 total revenue of $60.1M (+35% YoY) and net product revenue of $57.0M (+34% YoY); Recorlev delivered $22.6M (+131% YoY), Gvoke $23.3M (+25% YoY), Keveyis $11.1M (-21% YoY) .
  • Gross margin reached 84% in Q4, up ~100 bps YoY, aided by favorable mix; adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $8.3M; GAAP EPS improved to $(0.03) from $(0.11) in Q3 .
  • Management issued FY 2025 revenue guidance of $255–$275M; at midpoint, >30% YoY growth; expects adjusted EBITDA to remain positive, gross margin to improve modestly, SG&A+R&D to grow mid-to-high single digits .
  • Catalyst: acceleration in Recorlev patient adds and sustained Gvoke prescription growth; Beta Bionics milestone contributed $3.0M in Q4; company emphasized no need to dilute shareholders given operating trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We exceeded our full year guidance with total revenue of over $203 million, growing 24% versus last year,” driven by Recorlev and Gvoke; Recorlev grew 118% for the year to $64.3M; Gvoke grew 24% to $82.8M .
  • Q4 gross margin of 84% (+100 bps YoY) and positive adjusted EBITDA; management expects adjusted EBITDA to remain positive going forward .
  • 2025 guide implies >30% growth at midpoint ($255–$275M), underpinned by record Recorlev patient referrals and steady Gvoke prescription gains; Beta Bionics milestone added $3.0M in Q4 .

What Went Wrong

  • Keveyis Q4 revenue declined 21% YoY to $11.1M, reflecting reduced product shipments and ongoing reimbursement/net pricing pressure, though patient demand held steady .
  • Q3 COGS as % of product revenue rose to 25.7% due to a $3.6M Gvoke component write-off from capacity expansion; gross margin rebounded in Q4 but highlights manufacturing transition costs .
  • GAAP net loss persisted for FY 2024 ($(54.8)M); interest expense remains elevated ($30.5M FY), highlighting leverage in capital structure despite improving operating performance .

Financial Results

Consolidated and Product Metrics (USD Millions)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue$48.065 $54.268 $60.099
Net Product Revenue$46.512 $52.861 $57.000
Gvoke Revenue$20.046 $22.942 $23.262
Recorlev Revenue$13.338 $17.726 $22.614
Keveyis Revenue$13.128 $12.193 $11.124
Royalty/Contract/Other Revenue$1.553 $1.407 $3.099
Gross Margin %83.3% (calc from $7.790 COGS/$46.512 product rev) 74.3% (calc from $13.593 COGS/$52.861 product rev) 84%
Adjusted EBITDAN/AN/A$8.299
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)$(0.10) $(0.11) $(0.03)

Notes: Gross margin % for Q2/Q3 computed from reported COGS and net product revenue; Q4 gross margin % per management commentary .

Segment/KPI Highlights

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Gvoke TRx/Share~65k TRx; ~34% share (end of July) ~70k TRx; new Rx share ~37% (Oct) TRx +18% YoY; retail share ~35% (avg Q4)
Recorlev Patients/Referral PipelineAvg patients +124% YoY; referrals +31% QoQ Avg patients +125% YoY; sequential rev +33% Avg patients +123% YoY; sequential rev +$4.9M (+28%)
Keveyis Patient TrendPatients nearly equivalent to Q1; resilient vs generics Modest patient increase QoQ; net pricing pressure Avg patients held relatively steady vs Q3
Beta Bionics milestone——$3.0M recognized (XeriSol glucagon formulation)

Year-to-Date Context (FY 2024)

MetricFY 2024
Total Revenue$203.070
Net Product Revenue$196.636
Gvoke Revenue$82.829
Recorlev Revenue$64.277
Keveyis Revenue$49.530
Adjusted EBITDA$1.183
Cash, Cash Equivalents & ST Investments (12/31/24)$71.6M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2025Not previously guided$255–$275MRaised/initiated
Gross MarginFY 2025Not previously guidedModest improvement vs 2024Raised/initiated
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025Not previously guidedPositive on a go-forward basisRaised/initiated
SG&A + R&DFY 2025—Mid- to high single-digit growth vs 2024 (~$189M base)Maintained disciplined growth
FY 2024 Total RevenueFY 2024$198–$202M (raised on Nov 8) Actual $203.070MExceeded
Cash (Year-end)FY 2024$68–$72M (tightened Nov 8) Actual $71.6MIn range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Recorlev growth driversRecord referrals/new starts; avg patients +124% YoY; sales force expansion Sequential revenue +33%; patient adds up; market testing tailwinds Record Q4; avg patients +123% YoY; sequential +$4.9M; continued referral strength Accelerating
Gvoke market penetration~65k TRx; 34% share; under-penetrated 14M risk population ~70k TRx; new Rx share ~37%; steady growth; back-to-school dynamics TRx +18% YoY; avg 35% share; ADA partnership to drive guideline compliance Steady/structural growth
Keveyis durability vs genericsPatients nearly equivalent to Q1; resilient franchise Modest patient increase; net pricing pressure impacts revenue Avg patients steady; reimbursement/net pricing pressure may persist Durable patients; pricing headwinds
Gross marginFavorable mix (Recorlev); Q2 COGS down vs prior year COGS up (25.7% of product rev) due to Gvoke write-off GM 84%; modest improvement expected in 2025 on mix Improving post-Q3
Adjusted EBITDA/ProfitabilityNot highlightedNot highlightedPositive in Q4 ($8.3M); positive going forward Turning point
XP-8121 (Levothyroxine)Positive Phase 2; EOP2 FDA meeting planned Ongoing FDA discussions; 1H25 update planned Midyear update expected; Phase III readiness in 2025; clinic start targeted 2026 Advancing toward Phase III
PartnershipsBeta Bionics agreement announced in May Programs progressing; updates as they materialize $3.0M Beta Bionics milestone recognized; partner revenue similar to prior years Incremental contributions

Management Commentary

  • “We exceeded our full year guidance with total revenue of over $203 million, growing 24% versus last year… led by strong demand for Recorlev and Gvoke” .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… turned positive in the fourth quarter and will continue to be positive going forward” .
  • “We are guiding total company revenue between $255 million and $275 million in 2025, representing more than 30% year-over-year growth at the midpoint” .
  • On Recorlev momentum: “We’ve reached kind of a new trajectory, and this thing isn’t slowing down… think… underlying number of patient adds rather than a growth percentage” .
  • On Gvoke and guidelines: “Our team is focused on helping clinicians become more compliant with the new medical guidelines… 14 million people… not protected” .
  • On financing stance: “Position the company to execute on its priorities without the need to dilute shareholders” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Recorlev growth composition: both expanding prescriber base and deeper usage among existing writers; focus on converting a growing referral pipeline to new starts .
  • Seasonality: Q1 typically slower across rare disease products due to payer resets; momentum resumes toward end of quarter .
  • Expenses and leverage: 2025 SG&A/R&D to rise modestly; operating leverage building; major clinical spend for XP-8121 more of a 2026 event .
  • Competitive landscape: broader Cushing’s awareness and competitor promotion viewed as tailwinds; Recorlev patents to ~2040, orphan exclusivity through end of 2028 .
  • Keveyis trajectory: patient base durable with some pricing pressure; focus on keeping existing and adding new PPP patients .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve Q4 2024 S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) but were unable to due to an SPGI daily request limit. As a result, comparisons to Wall Street consensus are unavailable at this time. Values that would have been used for comparisons are unavailable; if you need consensus benchmarks, we can refresh once SPGI access resets.
  • Analyst framing on performance: Q4 delivered record revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA; FY25 revenue guidance (>30% YoY) implies potential upward estimate revisions focused on Recorlev/Gvoke trajectory .
  • Disclaimer: Consensus data would be sourced from S&P Global; currently unavailable due to API limit.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Recorlev is the principal growth engine; sequential revenue acceleration in H2’24 and strong Q1 pipeline support the >30% FY25 revenue growth guide .
  • Gvoke’s steady TRx growth and ADA partnership create a multi-year penetration runway; retail share averaged ~35% in Q4, with continued share and prescription gains expected .
  • Operating trajectory inflecting: Q4 adjusted EBITDA positive ($8.3M); management expects positive adjusted EBITDA going forward, modest margin improvement, and disciplined OpEx growth .
  • Keveyis remains durable on patient counts despite pricing pressure; management anticipates stability but warns reimbursement pressure may persist .
  • 2025 investment priorities: expand Recorlev commercial capability as needed, Phase III readiness for XP-8121 with clinic start targeted for 2026; no plans to dilute shareholders .
  • Near-term trading lens: strong guide and profitability metrics are likely constructive; watch Q1 seasonality and reimbursement dynamics; monitor midyear XP-8121 update as a potential catalyst .
  • Estimate revisions likely skew positive once SPGI consensus refreshes, given Q4 momentum and FY25 guide; we will compare to consensus upon data availability.