XH
Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 was a clean beat on Street expectations: revenue $288.9M vs $275.3M consensus, EPS $0.15 vs $0.06 consensus, and EBITDA ahead; Same-Property RevPAR +6.3% YoY with occupancy +180bps and ADR +3.6% . Results were driven by strong group/business transient demand and the ramp at Grand Hyatt Scottsdale .
Revenue and EPS beats: $288.9M vs $275.3M*, $0.163 EPS vs $0.057* (both Q1 2025). Values retrieved from S&P Global. - Guidance tempered despite outperformance: FY25 Adjusted EBITDAre moved to $235–$261M (from $244–$264M), Adjusted FFO to $152–$178M (from $161–$181M), and CapEx cut to $75–$85M (from $100–$110M), reflecting macro uncertainty and portfolio changes (Fairmont Dallas sale, Santa Clara land purchase) .
- Capital allocation remains supportive: dividend raised 17% to $0.14, and 2.7% of shares repurchased in Q1; portfolio quality improved via Fairmont Dallas sale ($111M, 11.3% unlevered IRR) and Santa Clara land buy ($25M) .
- Near-term stock catalysts: continued Scottsdale ramp (group pace and rate strength), prudent CapEx deferral under tariff risk, and improved FY margin outlook (+50bps for balance of year) could offset softer leisure trends .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Group/business transient resilience with no uptick in cancellations; group pace up ~22% for balance of year, +30% in 2H (ex-Scottsdale +20%) . “No uptick in cancellations or attrition… nothing to reflect any slowdown on the group side” — CFO Atish Shah .
- Grand Hyatt Scottsdale ramp: Q1 RevPAR ~+60% YoY; group ADR pacing ~30% above 2019; EBITDA path to low-$20M in 2025 and stabilization thereafter (low-$40M target) . “We are optimistic… delivering EBITDA in the low $20 million range for this year” — CFO Atish Shah .
- Cost control and margin improvement: Same-Property Hotel EBITDA margin +42bps YoY to 27.4%; rooms expense per occupied room up only ~2.5%; energy spend up just 1.6% given infrastructure investments .
What Went Wrong
- Macroeconomic caution led to guidance reductions despite a strong Q1; FY25 RevPAR midpoint lowered by
50bps and EBITDA trimmed ($6M mid-point walk incl. transactions) . - Leisure softness persisted in several markets (Savannah, Key West, Napa; Orlando leisure softer at Grand Cypress) and winter storms hit Sunbelt (Texas/Houston), dampening rate and margin mix .
- Tariff uncertainty prompted CapEx deferrals (Andaz Napa, Ritz-Carlton Denver) and broader reassessment of 2025 projects to preserve ROI .
Financial Results
Quarterly performance vs prior periods and estimates
Q1 2025 vs Street consensus
Q1 Same-Property revenue mix vs prior year
Select market KPIs (Q1 YoY RevPAR)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our portfolio performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations… nearly 12% growth in Adjusted EBITDAre and nearly 16% growth in Adjusted FFO per share” — CEO Marcel Verbaas .
- “We are taking a more tempered view of the remainder of the year and have slightly reduced our expectations for full-year revenue and earnings growth” — CEO Marcel Verbaas .
- “We currently expect hotel EBITDA margin to increase 50 basis points for the balance of the year… main driver is better expense management” — CFO Atish Shah .
- “Group production… quite healthy… no uptick in cancellations or attrition” — CFO Atish Shah .
- “We acquired the fee simple interest in the land underlying Hyatt Regency Santa Clara… eliminating risk due to a potentially significant ground rent escalation” — CEO Marcel Verbaas .
Q&A Highlights
- Group stability: Management saw healthy production and “no uptick in cancellations or attrition” in Q1; group pace robust for the balance of 2025 .
- Leisure outlook: Guidance assumes low single-digit RevPAR declines at leisure assets; varied by market/property specifics .
- Scottsdale ramp: EBITDA trajectory low-$20M in 2025, low-$30M in 2026, stabilization thereafter with strong group rate and volume momentum .
- Santa Clara land acquisition: Enhances optionality, removes ground lease risk; no near-term disposition action implied .
- CapEx deferral and tariffs: Projects deferred to preserve ROI amidst tariff uncertainty; reassessed periodically .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 versus consensus: XHR delivered a broad beat — revenue $288.9M vs $275.3M*, Primary EPS $0.163 vs $0.057*, and EBITDA $69.5M vs $65.0M*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Given a strong Q1 but tempered macro view and transaction impacts, Street models likely need lower FY revenue/EBITDA/FFO paths consistent with updated guidance ranges and reduced CapEx . Margin outlook for the balance of year improved by ~50bps, which may buffer estimate cuts on the bottom line .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Favor the positive mix shift to group/business transient, continued Scottsdale ramp, and disciplined cost control; Q2 cadence (just under 30% of FY EBITDAre) should reflect further normalization in rate/occupancy mix .
- Watch guidance cadence: FY25 ranges were lowered; monitor macro-leisure trends and tariff developments; Scottsdale’s group booking trajectory remains the key swing factor .
- Capital allocation: Dividend increase and buybacks (2.7% retired in Q1) signal confidence; Fairmont Dallas sale and Santa Clara land purchase enhance portfolio quality/optionality .
- Margin trajectory: Management now expects +50bps hotel margin for the balance of year on expense discipline; supportive for FFO despite modest RevPAR moderation .
- Balance sheet flexibility: Liquidity >$600M with no major maturities until 2028 and ~75% fixed debt mix provide offense/defense through the cycle .
- Markets: DC, Phoenix, Atlanta, Nashville show strong momentum; Portland and certain leisure markets remain soft — position exposure accordingly .
- Risk management: CapEx deferrals are prudent under tariff uncertainty; updated CapEx range ($75–$85M) reduces disruption risk while preserving ROI .
Note: Some consensus estimate values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.