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XI

XPLR Infrastructure, LP (XIFR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results: revenue $315.0M, GAAP diluted EPS (continuing) -$0.37, adjusted EBITDA $455.0M, FCFBG $179.0M; management reaffirmed 2025–2026 outlook and highlighted portfolio simplification milestones .
  • Revenue was below Wall Street consensus ($369.6M*) and SPGI “EBITDA Consensus Mean” ($497.2M*), while EPS consensus was unavailable via SPGI for the quarter; the variance reflects GAAP vs non-GAAP definition differences and higher HoldCo interest expense, per management .
  • Strategic actions: closed Meade pipeline sale (proceeds used to address project-level debt and convertible equity), completed ~960 MW of repowerings toward 1.6 GW program, and reduced planned 2025–2026 HoldCo debt issuance by $250M .
  • Post-quarter financing: priced $750M of 7.750% senior unsecured notes and achieved 93.40% tender of OpCo 2026 notes, supporting refinancing of near-term maturities; this is a key stock reaction catalyst around liability management and balance-sheet visibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Closed Meade pipeline divestiture and deployed proceeds to retire project-level debt and address convertible equity financing—advances portfolio simplification and reduces financing complexity .
  • Repowering execution: ~960 MW completed to date (~60% of the 1.6 GW plan), underpinning adjusted EBITDA resilience and medium-term FCFBG trajectory .
  • Liability management momentum: priced $750M of 7.750% notes due 2034 and secured ~93.40% tender participation for OpCo 2026 notes, materially improving near-term refinancing visibility .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue softness vs consensus and YoY: Q3 revenue $315.0M vs $319.0M in Q3 2024; miss vs consensus aligns with management’s commentary that higher HoldCo interest expense pressured FCFBG and that portfolio changes (Meade exit) affect contribution mix .
  • GAAP earnings negative: net loss attributable to XPLR -$37.0M; GAAP diluted EPS (continuing) -$0.37, reflecting higher interest expense and tax items despite solid equity earnings contributions .
  • FCFBG down 5% YoY to $179.0M, primarily due to higher HoldCo interest expense related to refinancing activities; signals near-term cash flow drag from capital structure actions even as medium-term FCFBG (2026) is reaffirmed .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L and Non-GAAP KPIs

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$282.0 $342.0 $315.0
Net Income Attributable to XPLR ($USD Millions)-$98.0 $79.0 -$37.0
Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations ($)-$1.05 $0.84 -$0.37
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$471.0 $557.0 $455.0
Free Cash Flow Before Growth (FCFBG) ($USD Millions)$194.0 $261.0 $179.0

Year-over-Year (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$319.0 $315.0
Net Income Attributable to XPLR ($USD Millions)-$40.0 -$37.0
Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations ($)-$0.23 -$0.37

Margins and GAAP EBITDA (SPGI)

Note: Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global; company-reported adjusted EBITDA differs from SPGI’s EBITDA definition.

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
GAAP EBITDA ($USD Millions)$176.0*$243.0*$169.0*
EBITDA Margin (%)62.41%*71.05%*53.65%*
Net Income Margin (%)-34.75%*23.10%*-11.75%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus vs Actual (Q3 2025)

Note: EPS consensus unavailable via SPGI for Q3 2025; EBITDA consensus reflects SPGI EBITDA definition, not company’s adjusted EBITDA.

MetricSPGI ConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$369.6M*$315.0M
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$497.2M*$169.0M*
EPS ($)N/A*-$0.37

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Portfolio Actions

KPI / ActionQ2 2025Q3 2025
Repowering completed (MW, cumulative)~740 MW ~960 MW
Meade pipeline transactionSigned definitive agreement for ~$1,078M Closed; proceeds used for project debt and convertible equity
HoldCo debt issuance plan (2025–2026)Not specifiedReduced by $250M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025$1.85–$2.05 $1.85–$2.05 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)CY 2026$1.75–$1.95 $1.75–$1.95 Maintained
FCFBG ($USD Millions)CY 2026$600–$700 $600–$700 Maintained
FCFBG ($USD)FY 2025Not provided due to transition year Not updated (still not provided) Maintained
Financing plan item2025–2026N/AHoldCo debt issuance reduced by $250M Lowered issuance

Management notes the decline in 2026 adjusted EBITDA vs 2025 is primarily due to the absence of Meade pipeline contributions post sale .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 transcript was not available in our document catalog. The company posted an earnings release and presentation on its investor site; no transcript link was indicated on the events page at the time of review .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Capital structure simplificationIssued $1,750M senior unsecured notes; bought out XPLR Renewables II convertible equity; evaluating Meade sale Closed Meade sale; reduced 2025–2026 HoldCo issuance by $250M; continued refinancing actions Improving balance sheet visibility
Repowering programOn track; repowerings progressing ~960 MW completed toward 1.6 GW target Execution momentum
Liability management / near-term maturitiesSecured >$1B project financing commitments; borrowing in June Priced $750M 7.750% notes; ~93.40% tender of OpCo 2026 notes De-risking maturities
Guidance postureReaffirmed 2025–2026 adjusted EBITDA; 2026 FCFBG $600–$700; 2025 FCFBG not provided due to transition year Reaffirmed 2025–2026 adjusted EBITDA; 2026 FCFBG $600–$700 Stable guidance
Portfolio optimization (asset sales)Signed Meade sale agreement (~$1,078M) Meade sale closed; used proceeds for debt and CE PF buyouts Transitioning portfolio mix
External environment / policyStandard risk disclosures on weather, regulation, capital markets Continued risk disclosures; emphasis on normal ops and policy support assumptions in forward-looking statements Ongoing monitoring

Management Commentary

  • “We remain committed to executing the plan we laid out in January and continue to make meaningful progress toward simplifying our capital structure, investing in our existing high-quality assets and optimizing the portfolio.” — CEO Alan Liu, Q3 release .
  • “We are pleased to have signed a definitive agreement to sell the Meade pipeline investment… We continue to believe that executing on our previously announced key initiatives will enhance financial flexibility and the long-term value of our portfolio.” — CEO Alan Liu, Q2 release .
  • “We remain focused on strengthening our balance sheet and investing in our existing high-quality assets… delivering on our plan to allocate capital for the benefit of unitholders.” — CEO Alan Liu, Q1 release .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document catalog; the company posted an earnings release and presentation but did not provide a transcript link on the events page at the time of review .
  • As a result, specific Q&A clarifications and tone changes vs prior quarters are unavailable.

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Actual $315.0M vs SPGI consensus $369.6M; indicates a significant top-line miss, consistent with management’s note that higher HoldCo interest expense weighed on FCFBG and that asset-mix shifts (Meade exit) affect contributions . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • EBITDA: SPGI “EBITDA Consensus Mean” $497.2M vs SPGI actual $169.0M for Q3; note this is not directly comparable to company’s adjusted EBITDA ($455.0M) due to definition differences. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • EPS: SPGI EPS consensus for Q3 2025 was unavailable via our data pull; GAAP diluted EPS (continuing) was -$0.37 .
  • Implications: Consensus may need to adjust for portfolio changes (Meade sale impact on 2026) and for near-term financing costs; reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA and 2026 FCFBG guidance suggests medium-term cash generation remains intact .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution on liability management (new $750M notes, ~93% tender of 2026s) reduces near-term refinancing risk and clarifies the maturities path—supportive for credit perception and equity narrative .
  • Reported adjusted EBITDA stayed resilient ($455.0M), but headline revenue missed consensus and GAAP EPS was negative—expect near-term focus on quality of cash flows and normalization after financing costs and portfolio changes .
  • Repowering progress (~960 MW) is a tangible driver for 2026 FCFBG ($600–$700M) and underpins long-dated contracted cash flows; continued execution is critical .
  • The Meade sale materially changes 2026 adjusted EBITDA mix; management already embeds the absence of Meade in guidance—models should reflect this shift .
  • Guidance stability (2025–2026 adjusted EBITDA maintained) offers medium-term visibility; watch upcoming updates on repowering completion and CEPF buyouts for capital intensity and timing .
  • Near-term stock reaction likely hinges on confidence in liability management progress and evidence that FCFBG headwinds from higher HoldCo interest are transient as refinancing completes .
  • Without a Q3 transcript, rely on the presentation and releases; monitor forthcoming events for more granular commentary on O&M, tax, and any segment-level disclosures .