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EI

Expion360 Inc. (XPON)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $2.00M, up 131% year over year and 43% sequentially; gross margin was 22.1% and net loss narrowed to $0.25M (an 88% YoY improvement) .
  • Wall Street consensus for Q4 was $1.70M revenue and -$0.96 EPS; actuals were $1.99M* revenue and -$0.12* EPS, both better than expectations; limited coverage (1 estimate) increases uncertainty. Bold beat on both top- and bottom-line relative to consensus*.
  • Management highlighted new OEM wins (Scout Campers, Alaskan Campers, K‑Z RV), began shipping Home Energy Storage Solutions (HESS) in January 2025, and is pursuing a NeoVolta collaboration to onshore manufacturing .
  • FY2025 outlook items: management anticipates ~$5.0M incremental revenue from new OEM/distributor relationships and ~$1.4M gross profit uplift, supported by HESS and next-gen batteries .
  • Potential stock catalysts: execution on HESS commercialization, additional OEM wins, progress on NeoVolta partnership and tariff mitigation; watch SG&A discipline and cash burn trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sequential revenue growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by OEM/customer traction: “Revenue grew sequentially for a fourth consecutive quarter, improving 43% from Q3 2024” .
  • New OEM wins and product traction: partnerships announced with Scout Campers, Alaskan Campers, and K‑Z RV; Edge battery shipments commenced in Q3 .
  • HESS commercialization: production shipments began January 2025; management expects incentives (SGIP, IRA) to support uptake .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin pressure vs prior year: gross margin at 22.1%, down from 23.9% YoY due to OEM discounts on higher-volume purchases .
  • RV industry softness weighed on FY results and scale efficiencies; 2024 revenue down 6% YoY; gross margin compressed to 20.5% for the year .
  • Elevated cash burn and liquidity drawdown: net cash used in operations was $9.6M in 2024; cash fell to $0.5M at year-end (offset by $2.6M capital raise in January) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)$1,278,109 $1,389,495 $2,000,000
Gross Profit Margin (%)25.5% 12.1% 22.1%
EBITDA Margin (%)-127.8%*-135.5%*-57.74%*
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.30) $(24.55) $(0.12)*
Net Income ($USD)$(2,220,232) $(8,814,657) $(251,647)

Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q4 actuals vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):

MetricConsensus# EstimatesActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$1,697,8001$1,985,477*+$287,677; +16.9%
EPS ($)$(0.96)1$(0.12)*+$0.84

Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed; company reports consolidated results .

KPIs (selected):

  • Reseller/OEM network: “more than 300” across the U.S. .
  • Prepaid/in-transit inventory: $1.61M at 12/31/2024 (indicative of expected demand fulfillment) .
  • HESS shipments initiated January 2025 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Incremental Revenue from new OEMs/distributorsFY 2025N/A~$5.0MIntroduced
Gross Profit increase (from OEM/distributor growth)FY 2025N/A~$1.4MIntroduced
HESS commercialization timingFY 2025N/AProduction shipments began Jan 2025Initiated
Formal revenue/margin guidance rangesFY 2025NoneNoneMaintained (no formal ranges)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
HESS development & UL certificationSpecs released; UL process underway Continued development; funding via offering Shipments begin Jan 2025; UL in final stages; incentives (SGIP/IRA) Accelerating commercialization
OEM expansion (RV)K‑Z RV integration; preorders for Group 27/GC2; Edge launch New OEMs: Scout, Alaskan, K‑Z RV; Elkhart Open House traction OEM-driven Q4 growth; more OEM penetration expected in 2025 Broadening
Product performance (Edge/VHC batteries)Edge launched; VHC innovation highlighted Edge integrated into OEM packages; shipments began Q3 Edge/VHC cited as drivers of OEM adoption Sustained adoption
Supply chain/tariffsNot emphasizedNot emphasizedInventory pull-forward to mitigate tariffs; supplier sharing; partial pass-through Managing headwinds
Regulatory (UL 9540, incentives)UL certifications in process Continued UL process UL in final stages; SGIP/IRA cited as demand drivers Positive setup
Capital & liquidityCash down to $0.9M; plan for $10M offering $10M offering completed; delevered 3i note $2.6M registered direct/private placement in Jan 2025 Ongoing capital access
Manufacturing/onshoring (NeoVolta)Not mentionedLOI announced Dec 2024 Pursuing collaboration to onshore manufacturing Strategic option

Management Commentary

  • “Revenue grew sequentially for a fourth consecutive quarter, improving 43% from Q3 2024…demonstrating the successful execution of our efforts to expand sales with our more than 300 resellers across the United States” – Brian Schaffner, CEO & Interim CFO .
  • “Looking ahead, we anticipate our new OEM partnerships and distributors to generate incremental revenue of approximately $5.0 million for fiscal year 2025…expected to increase gross profits by an estimated $1.4 million” .
  • “We have continued our progress in our Home Energy Storage Solutions vertical, with production shipments beginning in January 2025…we also anticipate HESS will benefit from incentives available through California's Self-Generation Incentive Program and federal tax credits under the IRA” .
  • “We are exploring the collaboration…with NeoVolta to engineer a U.S.-based state-of-the-art battery manufacturing facility and develop innovative cell and module designs” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Drivers of Q4 performance: OEM expansion and new product features (Edge, VHC, Bluetooth/CAN) .
  • Gross margin outlook: management expects HESS to support higher margin levels vs 2024’s ~20% historical gross margin range .
  • Tariff mitigation: pulled forward inventory late 2024/early 2025, shared tariff burden with suppliers, and passed some costs to customers .
  • NeoVolta/onshoring: JV progressing; management “aggressively pursuing” onshore manufacturing advantages .
  • OEM pipeline: strength with newly added OEMs and legacy relationships; expects to expand to additional brands in 2025 .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 consensus revenue was $1.70M vs actual $1.99M*, a ~17% beat; consensus EPS was -$0.96 vs actual -$0.12*, a material beat on loss per share. Coverage depth is thin (# estimates = 1 for both), which may limit reliability of consensus [GetEstimates Q4 2024].
  • With sequential growth and HESS ramp, near-term estimate revisions may trend upward on revenue; margin expectations may lift modestly if HESS mix and OEM pricing improve .

Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 print was clean: strong sequential/top-line growth and a sharp YoY net loss improvement; both revenue and EPS came in better than consensus*, despite limited analyst coverage [GetEstimates].
  • OEM momentum appears durable; watch for additional named wins and volume ramps tied to Edge and VHC batteries .
  • HESS commercialization started in January; incentives (SGIP/IRA) and UL 9540 certification progress are key margin and growth levers for 2025 .
  • Tariff headwinds are being actively managed (inventory timing, supplier sharing, customer pass-through); onshoring via NeoVolta partnership is a medium-term strategic hedge .
  • Cash burn remained high in 2024; liquidity bolstered by the $2.6M raise in January; monitor cash conversion, SG&A discipline, and working capital (prepaid/in-transit inventory) .
  • 2025 guideposts: ~$5.0M incremental revenue and ~$1.4M gross profit uplift from new OEM/distributor relationships; execution on these targets will likely drive sentiment .
  • Trading lens: stock should respond to tangible HESS deployments, new OEM announcements, and clarity on manufacturing/onshoring; any signs of sustained margin expansion or improved cash flow could be strong upside catalysts .

Citations:

  • Q4 2024 8‑K press release and exhibits
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript
  • Q3 2024 8‑K press release
  • Q2 2024 8‑K press release
  • Other relevant press releases (call notice, HESS shipments, CFO transition, NeoVolta LOI)

Notes:

  • Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.