EI
Expion360 Inc. (XPON)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $2.00M, up 131% year over year and 43% sequentially; gross margin was 22.1% and net loss narrowed to $0.25M (an 88% YoY improvement) .
- Wall Street consensus for Q4 was $1.70M revenue and -$0.96 EPS; actuals were $1.99M* revenue and -$0.12* EPS, both better than expectations; limited coverage (1 estimate) increases uncertainty. Bold beat on both top- and bottom-line relative to consensus*.
- Management highlighted new OEM wins (Scout Campers, Alaskan Campers, K‑Z RV), began shipping Home Energy Storage Solutions (HESS) in January 2025, and is pursuing a NeoVolta collaboration to onshore manufacturing .
- FY2025 outlook items: management anticipates ~$5.0M incremental revenue from new OEM/distributor relationships and ~$1.4M gross profit uplift, supported by HESS and next-gen batteries .
- Potential stock catalysts: execution on HESS commercialization, additional OEM wins, progress on NeoVolta partnership and tariff mitigation; watch SG&A discipline and cash burn trajectory .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Sequential revenue growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by OEM/customer traction: “Revenue grew sequentially for a fourth consecutive quarter, improving 43% from Q3 2024” .
- New OEM wins and product traction: partnerships announced with Scout Campers, Alaskan Campers, and K‑Z RV; Edge battery shipments commenced in Q3 .
- HESS commercialization: production shipments began January 2025; management expects incentives (SGIP, IRA) to support uptake .
What Went Wrong
- Margin pressure vs prior year: gross margin at 22.1%, down from 23.9% YoY due to OEM discounts on higher-volume purchases .
- RV industry softness weighed on FY results and scale efficiencies; 2024 revenue down 6% YoY; gross margin compressed to 20.5% for the year .
- Elevated cash burn and liquidity drawdown: net cash used in operations was $9.6M in 2024; cash fell to $0.5M at year-end (offset by $2.6M capital raise in January) .
Financial Results
Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Q4 actuals vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):
Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown: Not disclosed; company reports consolidated results .
KPIs (selected):
- Reseller/OEM network: “more than 300” across the U.S. .
- Prepaid/in-transit inventory: $1.61M at 12/31/2024 (indicative of expected demand fulfillment) .
- HESS shipments initiated January 2025 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Revenue grew sequentially for a fourth consecutive quarter, improving 43% from Q3 2024…demonstrating the successful execution of our efforts to expand sales with our more than 300 resellers across the United States” – Brian Schaffner, CEO & Interim CFO .
- “Looking ahead, we anticipate our new OEM partnerships and distributors to generate incremental revenue of approximately $5.0 million for fiscal year 2025…expected to increase gross profits by an estimated $1.4 million” .
- “We have continued our progress in our Home Energy Storage Solutions vertical, with production shipments beginning in January 2025…we also anticipate HESS will benefit from incentives available through California's Self-Generation Incentive Program and federal tax credits under the IRA” .
- “We are exploring the collaboration…with NeoVolta to engineer a U.S.-based state-of-the-art battery manufacturing facility and develop innovative cell and module designs” .
Q&A Highlights
- Drivers of Q4 performance: OEM expansion and new product features (Edge, VHC, Bluetooth/CAN) .
- Gross margin outlook: management expects HESS to support higher margin levels vs 2024’s ~20% historical gross margin range .
- Tariff mitigation: pulled forward inventory late 2024/early 2025, shared tariff burden with suppliers, and passed some costs to customers .
- NeoVolta/onshoring: JV progressing; management “aggressively pursuing” onshore manufacturing advantages .
- OEM pipeline: strength with newly added OEMs and legacy relationships; expects to expand to additional brands in 2025 .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2024 consensus revenue was $1.70M vs actual $1.99M*, a ~17% beat; consensus EPS was -$0.96 vs actual -$0.12*, a material beat on loss per share. Coverage depth is thin (# estimates = 1 for both), which may limit reliability of consensus [GetEstimates Q4 2024].
- With sequential growth and HESS ramp, near-term estimate revisions may trend upward on revenue; margin expectations may lift modestly if HESS mix and OEM pricing improve .
Notes: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 print was clean: strong sequential/top-line growth and a sharp YoY net loss improvement; both revenue and EPS came in better than consensus*, despite limited analyst coverage [GetEstimates].
- OEM momentum appears durable; watch for additional named wins and volume ramps tied to Edge and VHC batteries .
- HESS commercialization started in January; incentives (SGIP/IRA) and UL 9540 certification progress are key margin and growth levers for 2025 .
- Tariff headwinds are being actively managed (inventory timing, supplier sharing, customer pass-through); onshoring via NeoVolta partnership is a medium-term strategic hedge .
- Cash burn remained high in 2024; liquidity bolstered by the $2.6M raise in January; monitor cash conversion, SG&A discipline, and working capital (prepaid/in-transit inventory) .
- 2025 guideposts: ~$5.0M incremental revenue and ~$1.4M gross profit uplift from new OEM/distributor relationships; execution on these targets will likely drive sentiment .
- Trading lens: stock should respond to tangible HESS deployments, new OEM announcements, and clarity on manufacturing/onshoring; any signs of sustained margin expansion or improved cash flow could be strong upside catalysts .
Citations:
- Q4 2024 8‑K press release and exhibits
- Q4 2024 earnings call transcript
- Q3 2024 8‑K press release
- Q2 2024 8‑K press release
- Other relevant press releases (call notice, HESS shipments, CFO transition, NeoVolta LOI)
Notes:
- Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.