Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered a clean top-line and normalized EPS beat with revenue $390.9M vs S&P Global consensus $374.4M (+4.4%) and Primary EPS $0.25 vs $0.12 estimate, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.12; Adjusted EBITDA was $76.2M (20% margin), the best first-quarter margin since the Frank’s merger . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
Mix headwinds (seasonality, non-repeat of Q4 subsea projects) drove sequential declines (Revenue -11% q/q; Adj. EBITDA -24% q/q), but y/y trends improved (Revenue +1.9% y/y; Adj. EBITDA +13% y/y) .
2Q25 guidance: Revenue $400–$410M and Adj. EBITDA $80–$90M, implying sequential growth and modest margin expansion; full-year commentary remained cautious but targeted revenue at or above 2024 ($1.7B+) and Adj. EBITDA at or above 2024, with ~~7% FCF margin (~~$120M) .
Strategic highlights: $272M in Q1 awards, ~$2.2B backlog, and visible traction in automation (CENTRI-FI, iCAM) and Coretrax expandables, with MENA margins strong (37%) and technology proving a competitive wedge .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- First-quarter margin quality: Adj. EBITDA $76.2M (20%) — highest first-quarter margin since the merger; CEO: “best first quarter performance since… 2021,” underscoring multi-year margin progression .
- Commercial momentum: $272M in new awards (TRS in Gulf of America ~$50M; Brazil $30M+; Indonesia $15M), with backlog ~ $2.2B; confirms customer receptivity to digital/automation value propositions .
- MENA resilience and technology leverage: MENA revenue +1% q/q to $94M; segment margin 37% (+200 bps y/y); QPulse multiphase meter pilot in KSA showcased strong data correlation vs separators, opening production testing opportunities .
What Went Wrong
- Seasonality and mix: Revenue -11% q/q on winter seasonality and non-repeat of Q4 subsea projects; Adj. EBITDA -24% q/q with less favorable mix (notably ESSA subsea step-down) .
- ESSA compression: ESSA revenue -21% q/q to $112M; segment EBITDA fell to $29M (26%) vs $53M (37%) in Q4, mainly Angola subsea timing roll-off .
- Macro uncertainty and FID timing risk: Management flagged tariffs, OPEC+ supply, and geopolitics as raising near-term uncertainty; potential postponements of West Africa offshore FIDs into 2026–2027 remain a watch item .

Financial Results

Actuals by period (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	$383.5	$436.8	$390.9
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	($0.02)	$0.19	$0.12
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.09	$0.36	$0.25
Net Income ($M)	($2.7)	$23.0	$13.9
Net Income Margin (%)	(1%)	5%	4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$67.5	$100.4	$76.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	18%	23%	20%

Consensus vs actual – Q1 2025

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($M)	$374.4*	$390.9	+$16.5M (Bold beat)
Primary EPS ($)	$0.12*	$0.25	+$0.13 (Bold beat)
EBITDA ($M)	$70.0*	$76.2 (Adj.)	Above consensus on an adjusted basis; note definitional differences

Values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global; actuals are from company disclosures. Adjusted EBITDA vs “EBITDA” consensus may reflect methodology differences.

Segment performance (Revenue)

Segment Revenue ($M)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
North & Latin America (NLA)	$130.4	$139.3	$134.3
Europe & Sub-Saharan Africa (ESSA)	$121.7	$142.8	$112.4
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)	$71.5	$92.6	$93.6
Asia Pacific (APAC)	$59.9	$62.2	$50.7
Total	$383.5	$436.8	$390.9

Segment profitability (Segment EBITDA and margin)

Segment EBITDA ($M, %)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
NLA	$34.4 (26%)	$30.1 (22%)	$30.4 (23%)
ESSA	$25.2 (21%)	$53.0 (37%)	$29.2 (26%)
MENA	$24.5 (34%)	$32.6 (35%)	$34.2 (37%)
APAC	$10.8 (18%)	$15.5 (25%)	$10.9 (21%)
Total Segment EBITDA	$94.9	$131.1	$104.6
Adjusted EBITDA	$67.5 (18%)	$100.4 (23%)	$76.2 (20%)

Selected KPIs and cash/returns

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
New awards (quarter)	$314M	$272M
Backlog (approx.)	~$2.3B	~$2.2B
Net cash from operations ($M)	$97.4	$41.5
Free cash flow ($M, company calc)	$75 (Q4)	~$20 (Q1)
Capex ($M)	$44	$33.1
Support costs (% revenue)	20%	22%
Cash & equivalents incl. restricted ($M)	$184.7	$180.2
Revolver availability ($M)	~$136	~$135
Liquidity ($M)	$320	$316
LT borrowings ($M)	$121.1	$121.1
Buybacks ($M/shr)	$14 / 1.2M (Q4)	$10 / 1.0M (Q1)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	Q2 2025	—	$400–$410M	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 2025	—	$80–$90M; margin up q/q	New
Revenue	FY 2025	$1.7–$1.75B (initial, 2/25/25)	“Comparable to 2024,” “> $1.7B,” visibility less precise	Maintained low end; guidance language de-risked
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$350–$370M; margin +100+ bps y/y (initial)	“Meet or exceed 2024” (qualitative)	Maintained directionally; removed explicit range
Free cash flow margin	FY 2025	~7%	~~7% (~~$120M)	Maintained
Capex	FY 2025	$120–$130M	$90–$100M for remaining 9 months after Q1 spend	Maintained full-year frame with Q1 context

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024 (10/24)	Q4 2024 (2/25)	Q1 2025 (4/30)	Trend
Macro: tariffs/OPEC+/geopolitics	—	Noted cautious start to 2025; stable-to-modest growth outlook	Tariffs + OPEC+ add near-term uncertainty; still bullish multi-year	Caution near-term; medium-term intact
AI/data centers driving gas demand	—	EIA-led demand/supply outlook; gas as transition fuel	AI/data center demand cited as tailwind for gas/LNG	Emerging positive tailwind
Automation/digital (CENTRI-FI, iTONG, Skyhook)	CENTRI-FI award; automation safety/efficiency case	First iTONG West Africa; Skyhook deployments	CENTRI-FI international deployment; automation lowers red-zone risk, labor	Broadening deployments
Coretrax integration/expandables	Integration synergies/early wins	Pull-through; Australia RelineMNS success	Strong in MENA; Australia CBM remediation; disciplined rollout	Expanding footprint
Regional trends	ESSA subsea timing swings; NLA/MEX softness	MENA strength; ESSA subsea lumpiness; APAC mixed	MENA steady/high-margin; West Africa FID risk; Australia timing; LATAM robust	MENA resilient; ESSA timing-sensitive
Capital allocation	—	Buybacks targeted 1–2% TSO; balanced with M&A	Q1 buybacks $10M; can “walk and chew gum” on bolt-ons	Balanced, opportunistic
Cost program (Drive25)	—	Target ~7–8% support cost run-rate reduction by Q4’25	>$30M run-rate identified; ≥50% realized in 2025	Accelerating savings

Management Commentary

“First quarter Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin of $76 million and 20%, respectively, represent our best first quarter performance since we completed the Expro/Frank’s merger…” — CEO Michael Jardon .
“We secured $272 million in new contract awards… TRS in the Gulf of America ~$50 million… Brazil >$30 million… Indonesia ~$15 million.” — CEO .
“We currently expect full year 2025 revenue to be generally flat relative to 2024 and that margins will be stable, if not up modestly year-over-year…” — CEO .
“We have now identified a bit over $30 million of run rate support cost savings… planning to capture not less than 50%… during the current year.” — CFO Quinn Fanning .
On tariffs: “Potential impact… probably less than a $5 million impact… we don’t think it’s going to be a material driver to results for 2025.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

MENA durability and Coretrax lift: Management emphasized stable NOC-led activity and strong anchor contracts in Saudi/Algeria; Coretrax gaining share regionally and in Australia expandables .
Capital allocation: Company reiterated FCF margin ~~7% (~~$120M) and active buyback stance, balanced with bolt-on M&A opportunities given net cash flexibility .
Macro sensitivity and guide framework: Customer caution on new FIDs acknowledged; bottoms-up planning points to 2H pickup with project start-ups; Mexico softness offset by non-Pemex work and strength in LATAM .
Tariffs impact quantified: <~$5M EBITDA impact under current assumptions; activity impact could exceed direct cost effects; mitigation via FTZs, supply chain and pricing levers .
Automation runway: CENTRI-FI/iCAM reduce red-zone exposure and labor intensity; company will pace deployment to capture value in pricing .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $390.9M vs $374.4M*; Primary EPS $0.25 vs $0.12*; both represent meaningful beats. Adjusted EBITDA $76.2M vs “EBITDA” consensus $70.0M* (note potential definitional differences between Adjusted EBITDA and consensus EBITDA) .
Revisions risk skew: Given Q2 guidance implying sequential growth and margin expansion and management’s cautious-but-constructive full-year stance, estimates may drift up near term on revenue/EPS, with EBITDA comparisons dependent on adjustments and mix. Values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution beat: Strong Q1 print versus consensus on revenue and normalized EPS despite seasonal/mix headwinds; margin framework remains intact into Q2 with guidance implying sequential expansion .
Mix and timing dominate the narrative: ESSA subsea lumpiness will continue to drive quarterly variability; MENA offers ballast with structurally higher margins .
Tech differentiation is working: Automation (CENTRI-FI/iCAM, Skyhook) and metering (QPulse) underpin wins and pricing power; management will pace rollout to capture value .
Coretrax synergy flywheel: Expandables solutions expand TAM in MENA/APAC and selective onshore markets; methodical globalization supports medium-term growth and margins .
Cost-down catalyst: Drive25 savings (> $30M run-rate; ≥50% realized in 2025) provide EBIT/FCF buffer if macro stays volatile .
Macro watch items: Tariffs/OPEC+ add near-term uncertainty and could push FIDs (West Africa) to 2026–2027, but long-cycle offshore/gas fundamentals remain constructive (LNG, AI/data center demand) .
Positioning: Low net leverage, liquidity ~$316M, and active buybacks provide downside protection and optionality for bolt-ons in a dynamic market .

Notes:

We did not find a Form 8‑K Item 2.02 for Q1 2025; we used the company’s Q1 2025 earnings press release and full earnings call transcript as primary sources – –.
Values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global (consensus data).*

EXPRO GROUP HOLDINGS N.V. (XPRO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary