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    X Financial (XYF)

    XYF Q1 2025: RMB35.2B Loans, 30% Growth Target & $100M Buyback

    Reported on May 21, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$15.00Last close (May 19, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$17.30Open (May 20, 2025)
    Price Change
    $2.30(+15.33%)
    • Strong Loan Growth: Q&A participants highlighted robust loan origination performance and growth prospects with RMB 35.15 billion in loans already achieved and an expected 30% volume growth for the year, driven by effective customer acquisition and product enhancements.
    • Robust Risk Management: Executives emphasized disciplined underwriting practices and indicated that despite a slight uptick in delinquency rates, the overall risk profile remains healthy, supporting sustainable growth.
    • Proactive Capital Allocation: A new share repurchase authorization of USD 100 million complements ongoing buyback activities, demonstrating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
    • Rising delinquency concerns: Management acknowledged that while the current delinquency rate remains healthy, they expect an uptick as the portfolio grows, which could add risk-related costs if the trend worsens [index: 4][index: 5].
    • Regulatory uncertainty: With new regulatory announcements and upcoming changes expected in October, there's uncertainty over potential increases in compliance costs and disruptions to volume growth, particularly in Q4 [index: 6].
    • Funding supply and margin pressures: Questions regarding loan pricing above 24% and feedback from funding partners suggest potential challenges in maintaining favorable funding terms, which could pressure margins [index: 6].
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Loan Amount Facilitated and Originated

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    RMB 37.5 billion to RMB 39.5 billion

    no prior guidance

    Loan Volume Growth

    FY 2025

    Total loan amount facilitated and originated is expected to be between RMB 134.4 billion and RMB 138.4 billion, representing approximately 30% growth

    30% volume growth

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Loan Growth and Origination

    Q4 2024: Forecast loan volumes in the mid‐30 billion RMB range with growth guidance. Q3 2024: Reported a total of RMB 28 billion (with some year‐over‐year decline but a strong sequential increase). Q2 2024: Lower loan volumes at RMB 23 billion with expectations of a recovery.

    Q1 2025: Achieved RMB 35.15 billion in loan originations with strong sequential (+8.8%) and year‐over‐year (+63.4%) growth; complemented by record outstanding balances and revenue increases.

    Positive and accelerating. The narrative moves from cautious recovery and moderate growth in previous quarters to robust loan origination performance, indicating improved borrower demand and execution.

    Risk Management and Delinquency Trends

    Q2 2024: Emphasized restrictive risk controls with higher delinquency rates but improvements underway using machine learning and smaller average loans. Q3 2024: Noted sequential improvements in 31–60 and 91–180 day delinquency rates with technological enhancements. Q4 2024: Reported further improvements in delinquency metrics due to disciplined underwriting.

    Q1 2025: Showed further improved delinquency rates (31–60 day at 1.25% and 91–180 day at 2.7%) due to disciplined screening and tailored repayment programs; risk-related costs were even lower compared to Q4 2024.

    Consistently improving. While previous quarters focused on stricter controls and gradual improvements, the current period reflects marked progress with healthy delinquency levels and proactive risk management.

    Capital Allocation Strategies and Share Repurchases

    Q2 2024: Launched a new $20 million program with executed buybacks providing liquidity and increasing stake. Q3 2024: Executed modest repurchases under two programs despite challenges with low trading volumes and technical issues; emphasis on returning capital. Q4 2024: Actively repurchased shares (USD 49 million in Q4) and maintained a balanced approach with dividends.

    Q1 2025: Announced a new USD 100 million repurchase authorization (in addition to USD 15.9 million remaining from the previous plan) but no shares were repurchased due to the absence of an open trading window.

    Heightened focus and strategic expansion. While previous periods executed planned repurchases gradually, Q1 2025 underscores an increased commitment to share buybacks as a key capital return strategy despite timing challenges.

    Funding Supply, Loan Pricing, and Margin Pressures

    Q4 2024: Benefited from government stimulus with improved funding costs and mitigated margin pressures; loan pricing improvement was implied by stronger asset quality. Q3/Q2 2024: Little or no discussion on these; focus was elsewhere [–].

    Q1 2025: Detailed discussion on funding improvements (better funding cost figures) and regulatory concerns regarding loan pricing (preparing for pricing adjustments) alongside stable risk-related costs that supported strong operating income.

    Steady operational efficiency with cautious regulatory outlook. The trend advances from a reliance on supportive macroeconomic policies to a proactive stance on regulatory changes affecting loan pricing and margins.

    Regulatory Environment and Uncertainty

    Q4 2024: Described a supportive regulatory stance with stimulus measures and accommodative policies boosting confidence. Q3 2024: Stated regulatory stability with expectations of no major new rules. Q2 2024: No specific mention.

    Q1 2025: Focused on a dynamic regulatory landscape with proactive engagement and preparation for potential shocks (e.g. new rules due by October) while remaining confident in compliance and long‐term industry stability.

    More proactive and cautious. The discussion evolved from broadly supportive conditions to a targeted readiness for upcoming changes, reflecting increased regulatory uncertainty and the need for agile compliance.

    Customer Acquisition and Channel Expansion

    Q2 2024: Noted constant acquisition costs with new channels being accessed and an increase in active borrowers despite lower average loan sizes. Q3 2024: Reported intensified borrower acquisition efforts and increased marketing investments; also expanding channel partnerships. Q4 2024: Emphasized improved customer reach and partnerships to drive future growth.

    Q1 2025: Continued aggressive customer acquisition spending and channel expansion through both new and existing partnerships; emphasis on improving borrower experience via technology enhancements and streamlined processes.

    Consistency with enhancement. The focus on expanding customer base and channels remains steady, with Q1 2025 building on past efforts by leveraging technology and aggressive market penetration to further promote sustainable growth.

    Profitability and Translation of Loan Volume Growth

    Q2 2024: Despite lower volumes, profitability improved significantly (record net income and revenue increases) due to stringent risk management and lower funding costs. Q3 2024: Reported record adjusted net income and operating income alongside sequential loan volume growth. Q4 2024: Projected a 30% loan volume increase tied to profitability expectations.

    Q1 2025: Delivered robust profitability metrics with non-GAAP net income at RMB 457 million, EPS up by 45.6%, and ROE at 25.5%; strong loan originations contributed to improved revenue and operational efficiency despite minor delinquency upticks.

    Strong and effective translation. The evolution shows that despite earlier cautious growth, recent loan volume expansion is now efficiently converted into robust profitability, reflecting improved operational leverage and lower costs.

    Valuation and Market Perception

    Q3 2024: Highlighted low valuation (trading just over 1x earnings and at 1/3 tangible book value) with calls for higher dividends and buybacks to address undervaluation; Q4 2024 reiterated undervalued stock relative to high earnings multiples in comparable sectors. Q2 2024: Not discussed.

    Q1 2025: No specific discussion on valuation or market perception was provided.

    De-emphasized recently. Previously a prominent concern driving capital return strategies, valuation issues were heavily discussed in Q3/Q4 2024 but are notably absent in the current period, possibly indicating a shift in focus or resolution of concerns.

    Execution Challenges in Share Repurchase Programs

    Q3 2024: Cited low trading volumes and currency exchange issues as significant hurdles; modest repurchase amounts were achieved under existing programs. Q2 2024: Execution was smooth as the focus was on initiating a repurchase program. Q4 2024: Discussed timing challenges in how buybacks are reflected in financials.

    Q1 2025: Explained that no repurchases occurred due to the absence of an open trading window, with plans to deploy remaining funds and utilize the new USD 100 million authorization during upcoming windows.

    Persistent but clearly managed. Execution challenges remain consistent—from low volume and timing issues—but the company is adapting by increasing authorized amounts and clarifying operational constraints, showing ongoing commitment despite obstacles.

    1. Loan Growth
      Q: What drives Q2 loan growth?
      A: Management expects continued customer acquisition to boost origination, with Q2 totals forecast between RMB 37.5 and 39.5 billion and a 30% volume growth target for this year.

    2. Funding & Compliance
      Q: How do regulations affect funding?
      A: They are in active talks with institutional partners, planning adjustments to remain compliant with new rules—monitoring loan pricing above 24% carefully.

    3. Credit Risk
      Q: Will higher volumes worsen delinquencies?
      A: While a slight uptick in delinquencies is anticipated, improved underwriting and risk management keep credit quality healthy, with key rates at 1.25% and 2.7%.

    4. Buybacks
      Q: Will you resume aggressive share repurchases?
      A: Although no repurchases occurred in Q1 due to an open window, the newly approved USD 100 million program complements the existing plan with USD 15.9 million remaining, indicating a continued focus on buybacks.

    Research analysts covering X Financial.