Sign in

    YUM BRANDS (YUM)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 19, 2025
    Pre-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Post-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Price ChangeN/A
    • KFC International is showing strong signs of recovery, particularly in markets previously impacted by the Middle East conflict. In Q4, system sales in these markets grew 11%, compared to a full-year decline of 12%, indicating momentum heading into 2025. Additionally, markets with no impact from the conflict saw full-year system sales growth of 9%, accelerating to 10% in Q4. This recovery suggests significant growth potential for KFC International in 2025.
    • Yum! Brands' proprietary technology platform, Bite, is expected to drive faster top-line and bottom-line growth. By integrating their tech stack under Bite, they provide franchisees with a more seamless and efficient solution, improving operations and enhancing consumer experiences. Early success in Taco Bell U.S., which is ahead in deploying Bite, underscores the potential for sales growth and efficiency gains as the platform is rolled out globally across brands. ,
    • Confidence in achieving at least 8% core operating profit growth in 2025, despite challenges such as Turkey closures. The company anticipates that recovery in KFC International and strong performance from Taco Bell U.S. will drive profit growth, offsetting any headwinds from closures or G&A expenses.
    • Yum! Brands faces geopolitical risks in international markets, leading to a 12% decline in system sales in certain markets due to the conflict in the Middle East, which significantly impacted full-year numbers.
    • The company's significant investments in proprietary technology (Bite) may result in increased expenses and execution risks. Ongoing investments are necessary to stay at the leading edge, potentially impacting profitability.
    • G&A expenses are expected to increase due to resetting incentive compensation and continued investments in AI and supply chain capabilities, which may pressure margins before achieving leverage over the long term.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +16% (from $2,036m to $2,362m)

    Total Revenue increased by 16% YoY due to improvements in several segments, notably a strong performance in the KFC Division (+27% YoY) and a remarkable surge in U.S. Company Sales (+131% YoY), which helped offset challenges in the Taco Bell Division.

    Operating Income

    +8% (from $609m to $657m)

    Operating Income grew by 8% YoY as higher overall revenues and operational efficiencies partly counterbalanced rising costs, reflecting continued solid performance despite increased expenses from acquisitions and market pressures.

    Net Income

    -8.5% (from $463m to $423m)

    Net Income declined by 8.5% YoY primarily due to increased expenses and higher income tax provisions, which eroded profitability despite top-line growth.

    Basic EPS

    -8.4% (from $1.65 to $1.51)

    Basic EPS fell by 8.4% YoY, driven by the fall in net income and a higher effective tax rate, which reduced earnings available to shareholders even as revenue increased.

    KFC Division Revenue

    +27% (from $761m to $965m)

    KFC Division Revenue jumped 27% YoY, fueled by strong growth initiatives such as system sales improvements and contributions from acquisitions, consistent with prior period trends of unit and company sales growth.

    Taco Bell Division Revenue

    -89% (from $819m to $93m)

    Taco Bell Division Revenue declined sharply by 89% YoY which may indicate a strategic reclassification or significant shifts in revenue recognition; this contrasts starkly with previous robust growth, underscoring major adjustments or market headwinds impacting this segment.

    Habit Burger Grill Division Revenue

    +10% (from $175m to $192m)

    Habit Burger Grill revenue grew modestly by 10% YoY mainly due to incremental system sales growth, despite flat performance in system sales and slight same-store sales declines observed in earlier periods.

    U.S. Company Sales

    +131% (from $123m to $284m)

    U.S. Company Sales surged by 131% YoY, largely driven by strategic acquisitions (e.g., KFC U.K. and Ireland) and unit growth that more than compensated for a 4% same-store sales decline in key markets, reflecting a significant shift from the previous period’s lower volumes.

    U.S. Franchise Contributions for Advertising/Services

    +9350% (from $2m to $189m)

    U.S. Franchise Contributions skyrocketed by 9350% YoY, likely reflecting a major reclassification or realignment of revenue streams from franchise advertising and other services, marking a dramatic change compared to the negligible values in the previous period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Core Operating Profit Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    at least 8%

    no prior guidance

    Unit Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    4%–5% (excluding one-time closures)

    no prior guidance

    Same-store Sales

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    anticipated to improve

    no prior guidance

    G&A Expenses

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    low single-digit increase (mid-single-digit incl. one-time bonus)

    no prior guidance

    Interest Expense

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $500M–$520M

    no prior guidance

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    22%–24%

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Core Operating Profit Growth
    Q4 2024
    Mid- to high single digits
    7.9% year-over-year growth (EBIT from 609To 657)
    Met
    Net Interest Expense
    Q4 2024
    Just under $140 million
    131
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Recurring references to at least 8% core operating profit growth

    Q1–Q3: Emphasized meeting ≥8% target, though Q3 noted falling short (6% YTD).

    Achieved 8% in 2024, reaffirmed commitment for 2025, citing unit growth, sales momentum.

    Maintained (Strong consistency and delivered on target)

    Ongoing geopolitical risks (Middle East conflict)

    Q1–Q3: Low single-digit SSS headwind in Q1; 210 closures in Q2; severe SSS declines (15–45%) in Q3. Still, franchisees showed resilience.

    Partial recovery: 11% growth in conflict markets in Q4, Turkey franchise termination (not large financial impact).

    Improving (Recovery seen in Q4 despite continued challenges)

    Continued focus on technology and AI initiatives

    Q1–Q3: Multiple AI projects, drive-through Voice AI at Taco Bell, AI-driven marketing. No explicit mention of “Bite.”

    Heightened focus with new proprietary platform “Bite,” integrating Ops & digital, expanding AI personalization.

    Intensified (Shift toward a more unified, branded platform)

    Increasing G&A expenses

    Q1–Q3: Mentioned incentive compensation resets, AI, supply chain as drivers of G&A.

    $35M YOY headwind from incentive reset, mid-single-digit G&A increase in 2025, tied to AI & supply chain.

    Rising (More investment in AI, supply chain, and renewed bonuses)

    KFC International’s shifting performance & sentiment

    Q1–Q3: Middle East conflict weighed on growth; still saw strong unit growth. Recovery signs by Q3 with 9% new units, but conflicts persisted.

    Recovery momentum in Q4, conflict markets +11% in Q4 vs. full-year –12%. Unaffected markets up 9%.

    Improving (Notable rebound in Q4)

    Taco Bell’s consistently strong U.S. presence and margins

    Q1–Q3: SSS outperformance, industry-leading margins (23–25%), strong innovation & value offering.

    5% SSS growth, full-year margin at 24.3%—second highest ever, surpassing $1B in core operating profit.

    Steady Strength (Continued outperformance)

    Challenges achieving net new unit growth amid closures

    Q1–Q3: Elevated closures in conflict markets, though on track for 5% unit growth. 210 closures in Q2, 482 in Q3.

    Over 1,800 new units in Q4, total 4,500 for year. Turkey closures offset some gains, minimal financial hit due to low AUV.

    Mixed (Continued expansion but offset by conflict-related closures)

    Discontinued mentions of emerging-market AUVs & LatAm/Africa

    Q1: Called out lower emerging-market AUVs, strong LatAm/Africa expansion.

    No AUV detail. Brief mention of LatAm +6% comps, Africa +9% comps, but fewer specifics on expansion figures.

    Scaled Back (Fewer references to EM AUVs & expansion data)

    New emphasis on Bite in Q4 as a unified global tech solution

    Q1–Q3: No references to “Bite” by name, focus was on individual AI/tech projects.

    Prominent rollout of “Bite” as a global SaaS platform, linking digital ordering, ops, AI personalization.

    Newly Emerged (Introduced as a major global initiative in Q4)

    Potential large future impact of tech & global geopolitics

    Q1–Q3: Investment in AI indicated big long-term benefits; Middle East conflict cited as a key risk factor.

    Bite’s expansion and advanced AI solutions expected to drive efficiency. Middle East stabilizing, but global conflicts remain a watch area.

    Continuing High Significance (Tech expansion & geopolitical volatility still seen as major influences)

    1. 2025 Operating Profit Growth
      Q: Details on 2025 profit growth and unit outlook?
      A: Management reaffirmed their target of at least 8% core operating profit growth in 2025, even though unit growth may be slightly below the 5% algorithm due to Turkey closures. The Turkey business, with $200 million in sales and minimal royalty income, isn't a significant headwind. Confidence stems from the strong performance of their twin growth engines: KFC International recovery and Taco Bell U.S. momentum.

    2. G&A Outlook
      Q: Where will G&A expenses trend long-term?
      A: G&A expenses are expected to rise in the low single digits in 2025, normalizing after a $35 million incentive compensation reset. Over the long term, G&A as a percentage of system sales should continue to decrease, leveraging the company's growth. Investments will focus on long-term health, including AI and supply chain capabilities.

    3. International Performance
      Q: How is the international business and franchisee health?
      A: International markets are improving despite past complexities. Impacted markets from the Middle East conflict saw system sales swing from down 12% for the full year to up 11% in Q4. Unaffected markets grew 9% for the year, accelerating to 10% in Q4. Franchisee health remains strong, evidenced by opening 4,500 units globally in 2024.

    4. Technology Strategy and Bite Impact
      Q: How will the Bite platform affect growth?
      A: Integrating technology under the Bite platform enhances capabilities and economics for franchisees, driving faster top and bottom-line growth. This in-house tech stack allows seamless integration, quicker deployment of innovations like AI-driven personalization, and reduces dependence on third-party vendors. Early successes at Taco Bell U.S. demonstrate positive impacts on sales and efficiency.

    5. KFC US Strategy Under New Leadership
      Q: Plans for KFC US under Scott?
      A: Under Scott's leadership, KFC US aims to modernize the customer experience through digital initiatives and concept innovations. Early tests, including new concept stores, show encouraging results. Focus areas include leveraging digital, enhancing menu innovation, and refining operations to drive growth.

    6. Attracting Tech Talent
      Q: How will you retain top tech talent?
      A: Management is confident in attracting and retaining leading technologists due to the company's culture, growth prospects, and significant investment in technology. The tech team is motivated with low turnover, and Yum! continues to be an attractive workplace for top talent, supporting its digital transformation.

    Research analysts covering YUM BRANDS.