ZB
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered solid core trends but modest headline misses vs consensus: diluted EPS $1.13 vs ~$1.18 consensus and revenue ~$0.777B vs ~$0.795B reported GAAP revenue; NIM expanded 5 bps q/q and 16 bps y/y to 3.10% as deposit costs declined 17 bps q/q (cost of deposits 1.76%) . EPS consensus and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global; see disclaimer below.*
- Adjusted PPNR rose 10% y/y to $267M; efficiency ratio of 66.6% reflected seasonal compensation and higher regulatory assessments; customer-related fees normalized from Q4’s record but remained up y/y .
- Credit remained benign: NCOs 11 bps annualized; NPAs 0.51% of loans + OREO; ACL 1.24%; CRE nonaccruals stayed low; management flagged greater macro uncertainty tied to tariffs/trade policy .
- Outlook: Zions guided 1Q26 vs 1Q25 to slightly/moderately higher NII, customer fees, and adjusted OpEx with positive operating leverage; loans stable-to-slightly increasing; management reaffirmed positive op leverage (1–2%) on a rolling-year basis in Q&A .
- Capital/distribution: CET1 10.8%; dividend maintained at $0.43 (declared May 2); $41M of Q1 buybacks (0.8M shares) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Deposit costs fell and NIM expanded for a fifth straight quarter (NIM 3.10%, +5 bps q/q, +16 bps y/y) as time deposits repriced down; total deposit spot rate ended March at 1.70% (interest-bearing 2.54%) .
- Credit metrics remained strong: NCOs 0.11% annualized, NPAs 0.51%, CRE nonaccruals 0.43%; ACL steady at 1.24% .
- Strategic execution: closed Coachella Valley branch acquisition (~$630M deposits, ~$420M loans) and advanced loan-origination tech via nCino to speed decisioning and improve client experience .
- Quote: “This reflects a 16 basis point increase in the net interest margin and a 10% increase in adjusted pre-provision net revenue” — Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
- Quote: “We are determined to build an AI-enabled culture” and provided an outlook amid tariff uncertainty .
What Went Wrong
- Headline miss vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.13 vs ~$1.18; revenue ~$0.777B vs ~$0.795B GAAP; EPS impacted by a $0.11/share DTA revaluation charge from Utah tax law changes (expected to accrete back) . EPS and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global; see disclaimer below.*
- Efficiency ratio worsened q/q (66.6% vs 62.0%) on seasonal comp, higher technology spend, and increased deposit insurance; customer-related fees fell 10% q/q from a record Q4, led by capital markets normalization .
- Classified loans elevated to 4.82% of loans (vs 1.66% a year ago), largely in CRE (industrial/office) and C&I; management emphasized low LTVs, strong sponsorship and low nonaccruals, but investors will monitor migration closely .
Financial Results
Headline Metrics (Company-reported)
Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)
Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global. The consensus and “actual” shown in this table reflect S&P Global’s convention and may differ from company GAAP totals; please see company-reported revenue in the table above for GAAP NII + noninterest income .
Balance Sheet & Funding
Noninterest Income Mix
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “First quarter net income and earnings per share increased 18% from last year’s period… [and] reflect a 16 basis point increase in the net interest margin and a 10% increase in adjusted pre-provision net revenue.” — Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
- On tax impact: “$0.11 per share charge to income tax expense… from a beneficial Utah tax law change… expected to accrete back into income… [and] reduce the tax on securities income in future periods.” — Simmons .
- On macro/tariffs: “The outlook for the economy is perhaps more uncertain… with potential negative impacts from tariffs and trade policy” — Simmons ; “I just don’t feel that anybody can credibly say that they understand what the impact is going to be” — Simmons (Q&A) .
- On NII sensitivity: implied NII +4.6% by 1Q26 vs 1Q25 under forward curve; ±100 bps shocks imply +2.1% to +6.6% .
- On expenses and leverage: expense opportunities across the bank to dampen growth; positive operating leverage targeted despite uncertainty .
- On technology: selecting nCino to enhance end-to-end lending process and response speed .
Q&A Highlights
- Loan growth outlook: Expect moderate growth to continue; some slowing in near term as clients await tariff clarity; CRE to be managed down via payoffs/refis; 1–4 family growth includes construction fund-ups and acquired loans .
- NII guidance and rate sensitivity: A meaningful portion “baked in” to the curve; modeled +4.6% by 1Q26 vs 1Q25; deposit cost latency provides room even without Fed cuts .
- Deposit pricing/funding: Total deposit spot rate at 1.70% (IB 2.54%); brokered CDs and short-term borrowings expected to be managed down with deposit growth and securities paydowns .
- Credit/classifieds: Elevated classifieds driven by CRE (industrial/office) and C&I, but nonaccruals remain low; focus on C&I exposure to tariff-sensitive sectors (trucking/transport < $500M) .
- Capital/returns: $40M FY25 repurchase authorization discussed; bias to build ex-AOCI CET1 toward peer levels before materially upsizing buybacks .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 EPS of $1.13 modestly missed S&P Global consensus of ~$1.18, with an
$0.11/share tax DTA revaluation charge the key headwind; revenue was below S&P consensus ($0.777B vs ~$0.795B), though company-reported GAAP revenue (NII + noninterest) was $0.795B . EPS and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.* - Potential estimate revisions:
- Modest downward EPS adjustments near term to reflect the Utah tax law timing effect; management expects accretion back over security lives .
- NII trajectories likely to hold or drift up on deposit cost tailwinds and asset remix; fee estimates may normalize post-Q4 record capital markets .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core banking spread dynamics are improving: NIM expansion with falling deposit costs provides a clearer path to NII growth even amid uncertain rate cuts .
- Credit remains a support: low realized losses and low CRE nonaccruals offset concerns about elevated classifieds; watch C&I pockets tied to tariffs and transportation .
- Operating discipline continues, but expense seasonality and regulatory assessments can swing the efficiency ratio; management is pursuing multiple cost levers while investing in growth tech .
- Guidance points to positive operating leverage and slightly/modestly higher NII and fees over the next year, with loans stable to modestly higher; deposit behavior and tariff policy are the swing factors .
- Capital and distributions are balanced: CET1 10.8%, buybacks ongoing but sized prudently; dividend held at $0.43 .
- Near-term trading setup: watch for incremental datapoints on deposit pricing (further cost relief), capital markets fee run-rate, and any tariff headlines affecting loan demand/credit sentiment; NIM resilience is a potential catalyst, while macro/trade shocks are the key risk .
Additional supporting data and disclosures:
- Company reported: Net earnings to common $169M; EPS $1.13; NII $624M; noninterest income $171M; Adjusted PPNR $267M; efficiency ratio 66.6%; CET1 10.8%; NCOs 0.11%; NPAs 0.51% .
- Dividend: $0.43 per share declared May 2, 2025 .
- Strategic: Coachella Valley branch acquisition (~$630M deposits; ~$420M loans) and nCino platform selection .
S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.