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ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Zions delivered EPS $1.48, up 8% YoY but down QoQ, with core operating leverage strong; EPS was negatively impacted by elevated credit provision and a $0.06/share CVA loss . Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS beat ($1.48 vs $1.394*), while revenue missed ($812M* vs $841M*) — a mixed headline set. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Net interest margin expanded 11 bps QoQ to 3.28% (seventh consecutive quarter of expansion); efficiency ratio improved to 59.6% as revenue growth outpaced expense growth .
  • Credit was the primary overhang: $50M charge-off and $10M specific reserve tied to two related C&I loans with apparent irregularities; management emphasized this as an isolated incident and initiated legal actions to pursue guarantors .
  • Deposits (ex-brokered) grew 1.7% QoQ at period end; brokered deposits declined; cost of deposits edged down to 1.67% and total funding costs fell 5 bps QoQ .
  • Outlook (3Q26 vs 3Q25): management guides to slightly-to-moderately increasing loans, moderately increasing NII and adjusted fee income, and moderately increasing adjusted OpEx with expected positive operating leverage; board declared a $0.45 common dividend (up from $0.43 in Q2) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Net interest margin expanded to 3.28% (+11 bps QoQ; +25 bps YoY), supported by earning asset mix, fixed-rate asset repricing, and lower funding costs .
  • Operating efficiency improved: adjusted PPNR up 11% QoQ and 18% YoY; efficiency ratio improved to 59.6% from 62.2% in Q2 and 62.5% a year ago .
  • Deposit trends constructive: period-end customer deposits up $1.2B QoQ; brokered deposits down; total funding costs declined to 1.92% .

Management quotes:

  • “We’re pleased with the Company’s core earnings… adjusted pre-provision net revenue grew 18% over the prior year period… tangible book value per share grew 17%” .
  • “Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points to 3.28%… The efficiency ratio improved to 59.6%” .
  • “Total funding costs declined by five basis points during the quarter to 1.92%” .

What Went Wrong

  • One-off credit event: $50M charge-off and $10M reserve on two related C&I loans, raising net charge-offs to 0.37% annualized (vs 0.07% in Q2 and 0.02% in 3Q24) .
  • Net CVA loss of $11M reduced EPS by $0.06/share; methodology update and market changes were cited as drivers .
  • Spot loan balances contracted $531M QoQ, driven by runoff/paydowns in certain categories (e.g., NDFIs, CRE multifamily/office) despite solid production, tempering near-term loan growth .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Interest Income ($MM)$620 $648 $672
Noninterest Income ($MM)$172 $190 $189
Combined Revenue (TE NII + Noninterest, $MM)$804 $851 $872
Diluted EPS ($)$1.37 $1.63 $1.48
Net Earnings to Common ($MM)$204 $243 $221
Net Interest Margin (%)3.03% 3.17% 3.28%
Efficiency Ratio (%)62.5% 62.2% 59.6%
Net Charge-offs / Loans (Annualized, %)0.02% 0.07% 0.37%

Results vs S&P Global consensus (definitions follow S&P; revenue reflects S&P’s measure):

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EPS Estimate ($)1.167*1.180*1.307*1.394*
EPS Actual ($)1.37 1.13 1.63 1.48
Revenue Estimate ($MM)779*795*811*841*
Revenue Actual ($MM)779*777*839*812*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: EPS beat in Q3 2025 (1.48 vs 1.394*), while revenue missed (812* vs 841*). Q2 showed EPS and revenue beats; Q1 had slight EPS miss and revenue miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Customer-related noninterest income:

Category ($MM)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Commercial account fees46 46 47
Card fees24 24 24
Retail & business banking fees18 19 19
Loan-related fees & income17 19 20
Capital markets fees & income25 28 24
Wealth management fees14 14 14
Other customer-related fees14 14 15
Total customer-related noninterest income158 164 163
Adjusted customer-related noninterest income (ex-CVA)161 164 174

Key KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
CET1 Ratio (%)10.7% 11.0% 11.3%
Average Loans ($B)58.7 60.5 60.8
Total Deposits (Period-end, $B)75.7 73.8 74.9
Cost of Deposits (%)2.14% 1.68% 1.67%
NPAs / Loans + OREO (%)0.62% 0.51% 0.54%
Classified Loans / Loans (%)3.55% 4.43% 4.00%
Tangible Book Value / Share ($)$33.12 $36.81 $38.64

Non-GAAP and adjustments:

  • Net CVA loss: $11M (negative $0.06/share); Adjusted fee income excludes CVA; adjusted PPNR up 11% QoQ, 18% YoY .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Loan balances (period-end)3Q26 vs 3Q25Not previously quantifiedSlightly to Moderately Increasing Maintained upward bias
Net Interest Income3Q26 vs 3Q25Not previously quantifiedModerately Increasing Maintained upward bias
Adjusted customer-related noninterest income3Q26 vs 3Q25Not previously quantifiedModerately Increasing (capital markets outsized) Maintained upward bias
Adjusted noninterest expense3Q26 vs 3Q25Not previously quantifiedModerately Increasing (tech, marketing, revenue investments); positive operating leverage expected Maintained upward bias
Fed funds assumptionsLate-2025 into 2026N/ATwo 25 bp cuts in Oct/Dec 2025; 25 bp cuts in Mar/Jul 2026 New assumptions
Dividend per common shareQ4 2025$0.43 (Q2) $0.45 (declared Oct 31, 2025) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025 & Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
NIM trajectoryNIM up to 3.17% in Q2; YoY expansion; optimism for H2 growth NIM 3.28%, seventh consecutive quarter of expansion; long-term “~3.50% over time” reiterated with pacing caveats Improving; pacing moderates in lower-rate scenarios
Credit quality & NDFIQ1: NPAs stable at 0.51%, NCOs 0.11%; cautious macro (tariffs) One-off $50M charge-off; $10M reserve; management stresses isolation; NDFI ~3% of loans; diversified Temporary spike; underlying benign ex-event
Deposits & fundingQ2 avg deposits flat; Q3 period-end deposits +$1.1B; brokered down; total funding cost down 5 bps Migration to noninterest-bearing products across affiliates; stability in NIB mix; reclass accretive but modest Stabilizing and favorable mix
Capital & buybacksQ2: strengthening capital; more optimistic H2 CET1 11.3%; buybacks contemplated when total capital incl. AOCI aligns with peers (~10% “central tendency”); 12+ months away Building capacity; cautious timing
CRE leasing & exposuresQ1 cautious macro/tariffs; Q2 optimistic but watchful Longer lease-up (MF/industrial) but filling; classified CRE down; low nonaccruals; disciplined concentrations Gradual improvement; disciplined
Macro/tariffsQ1 flagged tariff risks Demand more macro-driven than rate-driven; modest impact of lower rates; watch recession risks Mixed; cautious
Technology/digitalOngoing investments; modern architecture Higher tech spend expected; positive operating leverage pursued Investing for growth
M&A stanceN/APreference for small, density-enhancing deals; sensitive to dilution; no compulsion Opportunistic, conservative

Management Commentary

  • Harris Simmons (CEO): “Diluted earnings per share was $1.48 compared to $1.63 in the prior period and $1.37 in the year-ago period… adjusted pre-provision net revenue… improved 11% QoQ and 18% YoY” .
  • On credit event: “We view this as an isolated situation… legal action has been initiated… excluding this loss, remaining net charge-offs were very benign” .
  • CFO Ryan Richards: “Total funding costs declined by five basis points… period-end deposit balances grew by $1.1 billion… NIM expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter to 3.28%” .
  • On long-term NIM: “~3.50% is ultimately where we expect to land… not suggesting this happens in 12 months” .
  • On deposit reclass: “It is a reclass… slightly accretive to funding costs… enthusiastic about market receptivity” .
  • On outlook: “Positive operating leverage expected as revenue growth outpaces noninterest expense growth” .

Q&A Highlights

  • NDFI exposure and credit review: Management emphasized the event’s isolation, third-party review underway, local decisioning with centralized oversight, NDFI ~3% of loans and diversified (equipment leasing, capital calls, etc.) .
  • NII guide and fixed-rate repricing: Expect 2–3 bps lift in earning asset yields embedded; remix from securities to loans; assumptions include rate cuts and conservative deposit beta/migration .
  • Capital/buybacks: Considered when capital (incl. AOCI) aligns with peers (~10%); likely 12+ months away based on current projections .
  • Deposit strategy: Migration to noninterest-bearing across affiliates; stable NIB mix; focus on net new clients via marketing and product initiatives .
  • CRE: Longer lease-up times but improving; classified balances declining via payoffs/upgrades; low nonaccruals and delinquencies maintained .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: Zions beat consensus in Q3 2025 ($1.48 vs $1.394*), continued YoY growth despite credit provision headwind. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Revenue: Zions missed Q3 2025 revenue consensus ($812M* vs $841M*). Note: S&P’s revenue measure may differ from company’s combined TE NII + noninterest ($872M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Revisions: Capital markets fees (ex-CVA) +25% YoY; adjusted fee income +6% QoQ suggests estimate models may need to reflect stronger fee trends ex-CVA .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core trends positive: EPS beat, NIM expansion, and operating leverage improved despite a one-off credit hit; watch for continued NIM pacing and deposit cost declines .
  • Credit event likely a transitory overhang; management asserts isolation and initiated recovery; ex-event, underlying charge-offs were 4 bps annualized — risk appears contained .
  • Fee resilience ex-CVA: Adjusted customer-related fees +6% QoQ and +8% YoY; capital markets, loan syndications, and swaps are growth drivers .
  • Funding mix improving: Brokered down, customer deposits up, total funding costs down — supportive of NII into 2026 under management’s scenarios .
  • Capital build: CET1 11.3%; tangible book up 17% YoY; buybacks unlikely near term until capital (incl. AOCI) aligns with peers — expect capital return later rather than sooner .
  • Guidance signals: Loans/NII/fees moderately increasing with continued tech and marketing investments; positive operating leverage targeted .
  • Trading lens: Near-term volatility tied to litigation/recovery headlines and CRE/NDFI scrutiny; medium-term thesis rests on NIM trajectory, deposit mix stability, and fee growth ex-CVA .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Dividends: Board declared common dividend $0.45 per share (payable Nov 20, record Nov 13) and preferred dividend (payable Dec 15) .

CRE portfolio summary (22% of total loans; $13.5B): granular, diversified; low nonaccruals and delinquencies; disciplined concentrations; office nonaccruals 3.6% with charges limited; classified CRE down $143M QoQ .

Rate sensitivity: Latent NII up 8.0% in flat rates; emergent (implied cuts) reduces by 6.6% vs latent; combined +1.4% modeled; parallel shocks -1.9% to +4.7% (12m) — not guidance .

Non-GAAP reconciliations: Efficiency ratio and adjusted PPNR schedules provided .