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    ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding (ZK)

    ZK Q4 2024: Targets 710K 2025 sales, 15% vehicle margin

    Reported on May 21, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$28.24Last close (Mar 19, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$27.77Open (Mar 20, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.47(-1.66%)
    • Strong Sales Growth Prospects: The Q&A highlighted a 2025 sales target of 710,000 vehicles—with 390,000 Lynk & Co and 320,000 Zeekr units—implying sustained demand and robust market potential as both brands integrate and drive record deliveries.
    • Margin Improvement Through Synergies: Executives pointed to achieving a consolidated vehicle business gross margin improvement from around 12% in 2024 to 15% in Q4 2025 via cost synergies, supply chain optimization, and BOM reduction strategies during the integration process.
    • Technological Leadership and Innovation: The call emphasized advanced developments such as super electric hybrid technology and state-of-the-art ADAS capabilities, supported by a unified, platform-based approach across both brands—strengthening product competitiveness and future profitability.
    • Integration Risk: The successful consolidation of the Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands is crucial, yet delays or inefficiencies in realising expected cost synergies could hurt margins and overall performance .
    • Intense Competition: Persistently strong competition in both domestic and international markets could undermine the company’s ambitious sales targets and market share gains .
    • Margin Improvement Uncertainty: The reliance on one-off cost synergies and improvements in BOM cost may not be sustainable; if these initiatives falter, achieving the projected vehicle gross margin improvements could be challenging .
    1. Breakeven & Synergies
      Q: What conditions ensure break-even in 2025?
      A: Management explained that strong integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr with tightened R&D and SG&A controls, along with cost‐saving initiatives, will underpin their path to breakeven and improved margins (targeting 15% vehicle margin).

    2. 2026 Outlook
      Q: What are 2026 product and CapEx targets?
      A: They projected forming a luxury group with nearly 1 million global sales, modest CapEx increases through synergy realizations, and continued margin improvements.

    3. Sales Target
      Q: Can 710,000 unit sales be met in 2025?
      A: The management remains confident in achieving the target with a split of 390K Lynk & Co and 320K Zeekr units, supported by new model launches and robust product competitiveness.

    4. Gross Margin Guidance
      Q: How will margins improve by Q4 2025?
      A: They are aiming for a consolidated 15% vehicle margin—about a 3% uplift over the previous year’s level—driven by supply chain synergies and operational efficiency.

    5. R&D Budget
      Q: What is the R&D spend outlook?
      A: R&D expenses are expected to show a slight single-digit increase from last year’s RMB1.2–1.3 billion, reflecting continued platform investments and efficiency improvements.

    6. ADAS & Infotainment
      Q: When will unified ADAS solutions be deployed?
      A: Efforts are underway to integrate a unified ADAS and infotainment platform across both brands, enhancing technology sharing and cost efficiencies in the near term.

    7. Powertrain Strategy
      Q: Will Lynk & Co adopt super hybrid tech?
      A: While Zeekr is set to deploy advanced super electric hybrid technology for higher margins, Lynk & Co will continue with its EM-P platform, with any transition remaining gradual and not definitively outlined.

    8. Export Strategy
      Q: How will exports support growth?
      A: The group targets overseas sales to comprise over 10% of total global volume, with clear brand differentiation to avoid internal competition and bolster growth.

    9. Battery Sales
      Q: What caused battery sales decline in Q4 2024?
      A: The decline was linked mainly to shifts in key customers’ sourcing strategies and adjustments in supply channels, particularly involving changes with Nimble and related suppliers.

    10. Waymo Partnership
      Q: Any update on vehicles for Waymo?
      A: Shipments to Waymo remain on track, with vehicles built in China and later outfitted with necessary ADAS and software in California to ensure full U.S. regulatory compliance.

    11. Controller and Chips
      Q: Are self-developed controllers used for both brands?
      A: Yes, both Lynk & Co and Zeekr will utilize the same advanced main controller, and the longstanding cooperation with mobile chip partners will persist.

    12. Model Pipeline Optimization
      Q: Will less popular models be cut?
      A: Management has streamlined the pipeline by cutting about 20% of projects to prevent internal competition and focus on developing standout hit products.

    13. Platform Investment Benefits
      Q: How do platform investments impact costs?
      A: Investments in platform technologies—including mechanical, electrical, and ADAS architectures—are expected to yield sustainable cost efficiencies and temper future expenditure.

    Research analysts covering ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding.