ZK Q4 2024: Targets 710K 2025 sales, 15% vehicle margin
- Strong Sales Growth Prospects: The Q&A highlighted a 2025 sales target of 710,000 vehicles—with 390,000 Lynk & Co and 320,000 Zeekr units—implying sustained demand and robust market potential as both brands integrate and drive record deliveries.
- Margin Improvement Through Synergies: Executives pointed to achieving a consolidated vehicle business gross margin improvement from around 12% in 2024 to 15% in Q4 2025 via cost synergies, supply chain optimization, and BOM reduction strategies during the integration process.
- Technological Leadership and Innovation: The call emphasized advanced developments such as super electric hybrid technology and state-of-the-art ADAS capabilities, supported by a unified, platform-based approach across both brands—strengthening product competitiveness and future profitability.
- Integration Risk: The successful consolidation of the Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands is crucial, yet delays or inefficiencies in realising expected cost synergies could hurt margins and overall performance .
- Intense Competition: Persistently strong competition in both domestic and international markets could undermine the company’s ambitious sales targets and market share gains .
- Margin Improvement Uncertainty: The reliance on one-off cost synergies and improvements in BOM cost may not be sustainable; if these initiatives falter, achieving the projected vehicle gross margin improvements could be challenging .
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Breakeven & Synergies
Q: What conditions ensure break-even in 2025?
A: Management explained that strong integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr with tightened R&D and SG&A controls, along with cost‐saving initiatives, will underpin their path to breakeven and improved margins (targeting 15% vehicle margin). -
2026 Outlook
Q: What are 2026 product and CapEx targets?
A: They projected forming a luxury group with nearly 1 million global sales, modest CapEx increases through synergy realizations, and continued margin improvements. -
Sales Target
Q: Can 710,000 unit sales be met in 2025?
A: The management remains confident in achieving the target with a split of 390K Lynk & Co and 320K Zeekr units, supported by new model launches and robust product competitiveness. -
Gross Margin Guidance
Q: How will margins improve by Q4 2025?
A: They are aiming for a consolidated 15% vehicle margin—about a 3% uplift over the previous year’s level—driven by supply chain synergies and operational efficiency. -
R&D Budget
Q: What is the R&D spend outlook?
A: R&D expenses are expected to show a slight single-digit increase from last year’s RMB1.2–1.3 billion, reflecting continued platform investments and efficiency improvements. -
ADAS & Infotainment
Q: When will unified ADAS solutions be deployed?
A: Efforts are underway to integrate a unified ADAS and infotainment platform across both brands, enhancing technology sharing and cost efficiencies in the near term. -
Powertrain Strategy
Q: Will Lynk & Co adopt super hybrid tech?
A: While Zeekr is set to deploy advanced super electric hybrid technology for higher margins, Lynk & Co will continue with its EM-P platform, with any transition remaining gradual and not definitively outlined. -
Export Strategy
Q: How will exports support growth?
A: The group targets overseas sales to comprise over 10% of total global volume, with clear brand differentiation to avoid internal competition and bolster growth. -
Battery Sales
Q: What caused battery sales decline in Q4 2024?
A: The decline was linked mainly to shifts in key customers’ sourcing strategies and adjustments in supply channels, particularly involving changes with Nimble and related suppliers. -
Waymo Partnership
Q: Any update on vehicles for Waymo?
A: Shipments to Waymo remain on track, with vehicles built in China and later outfitted with necessary ADAS and software in California to ensure full U.S. regulatory compliance. -
Controller and Chips
Q: Are self-developed controllers used for both brands?
A: Yes, both Lynk & Co and Zeekr will utilize the same advanced main controller, and the longstanding cooperation with mobile chip partners will persist. -
Model Pipeline Optimization
Q: Will less popular models be cut?
A: Management has streamlined the pipeline by cutting about 20% of projects to prevent internal competition and focus on developing standout hit products. -
Platform Investment Benefits
Q: How do platform investments impact costs?
A: Investments in platform technologies—including mechanical, electrical, and ADAS architectures—are expected to yield sustainable cost efficiencies and temper future expenditure.
Research analysts covering ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding.