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ZT

ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (ZVRA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 net revenue was $26.1M, up ~606% YoY from $3.7M, led by MIPLYFFA® net revenue of $22.4M; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01) versus $(0.69) a year ago .
  • Versus consensus, revenue was slightly below ($26.06M actual vs $26.64M estimate; miss of ~$0.58M)* and EPS beat (−$0.01 actual vs −$0.034 estimate; beat of ~$$0.02); eight sell-side estimates supported the consensus.
  • Covered lives for MIPLYFFA reached 66% (52% in Q2; 38% in Q1), with strong reimbursement pull-through and shorter time-to-paid dispense; Medicare Part D rebate redesign drove a $1.2M gross-to-net true-up, impacting Q3 reported net sales .
  • Balance sheet strength remained notable: cash, cash equivalents, and investments were $230.4M, total debt ~$61.3M; management believes resources are sufficient to execute priorities independently of capital markets .
  • Near-term catalysts: EMA MAA for arimoclomol validated; first 120-day clock feedback expected before day 150; OLPRUVA promotion scaled back to focus resources on MIPLYFFA and patient services .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Commercial execution: “third quarter net revenue reached $26.1 million, driven by $22.4 million in net revenue for MIPLYFFA” .
  • Access expansion and execution: covered lives for MIPLYFFA increased to 66%, “in line with what we would expect one year into the launch,” with “high overall reimbursement rates…either through direct formulary coverage or…medical exception pathways” .
  • EU pathway advancing: “application has been validated and is under review by the EMA…highly confident in our submission,” supported by the largest NPC dataset and active EAP (92 patients) to seed launch .

What Went Wrong

  • Policy headwind: “Q3 MIPLYFFA net revenue was impacted by the redesign of Medicare Part D rebates…gross‑to‑net true‑up from prior quarters of $1.2 million,” a reduction to net sales that is now embedded in estimates going forward .
  • OLPRUVA underperformance: company “decided to scale back sales and marketing efforts for OLPRUVA” amid a “mature and well‑served UCD market” and prior quarter impairment/write-downs tied to slower adoption .
  • Non-cash volatility: warrant/CVR fair value expense of $5.5M and interest expense of $2.05M weighed on GAAP results despite operational improvement .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L comparison (GAAP)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue, Net ($)$20,401,000 $25,881,000 $26,063,000
MIPLYFFA Net Revenue ($)$17,100,000 $21,500,000 $22,400,000
OLPRUVA Net Revenue ($)$100,000 $300,000 $100,000
French EAP Net Reimbursements ($)$2,300,000 $2,600,000 $2,400,000
AZSTARYS Royalties & Other ($)$900,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000
Cost of Product Revenue ($)$1,345,000 $12,379,000 $1,238,000
Intangible Asset Amortization ($)$1,615,000 $1,616,000 $315,000
Operating Expenses ($)$22,803,000 $24,215,000 $20,367,000
R&D Expense ($)$3,258,000 $3,433,000 $3,432,000
SG&A Expense ($)$19,545,000 $20,782,000 $16,935,000
Income (Loss) from Operations ($)$(5,362,000) $(71,039,000) $4,143,000
Net Income (Loss) ($)$(3,099,000) $74,707,000 $(544,000)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.06) $1.21 $(0.01)

Notes: Q2 includes $148.3M PRV sale gain and OLPRUVA impairment/write‑down; Q3 includes $1.2M Medicare Part D gross‑to‑net true‑up and $5.5M warrant/CVR fair value expense .

YoY comparison (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue, Net ($)$3,695,000 $26,063,000
Cost of Product Revenue (ex‑amort.) ($)$2,303,000 $1,238,000
Operating Expenses ($)$27,153,000 $20,367,000
Net Loss ($)$(33,225,000) $(544,000)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.69) $(0.01)

Q3 2025 Actual vs Consensus

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($)$26,063,000 $26,641,880*$(578,880)*
Primary EPS ($)$(0.01) $(0.03375)*$0.02375*
Primary EPS – # of Estimates8*
Revenue – # of Estimates8*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment/Source Breakdown (Q3 2025)

SourceQ3 2025 Amount ($)
MIPLYFFA Net Revenue$22,400,000
OLPRUVA Net Revenue$100,000
French EAP Net Reimbursements (arimoclomol)$2,400,000
AZSTARYS Royalties & Other Reimbursements$1,200,000
Total Net Revenue$26,100,000

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
MIPLYFFA Prescription Enrollment Forms (New)13 7 8
MIPLYFFA Total Enrollment Forms Since Launch122 129 137
MIPLYFFA Covered Lives (%)38% 52% 66%
OLPRUVA Covered Lives (%)78% 79% 81%
Global EAP (arimoclomol) Patients89 92
Celiprolol DiSCOVER Trial – Patients Enrolled32 39 44
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($)$68.7M $217.7M $230.4M
Total Debt ($)~$60.1M ~$60.7M ~$61.3M
Shares Outstanding (Basic)54,095,543 54,780,938 55,951,572

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Selling Expenses OutlookFY 2025/near termNot specified“Meaningful change in selling expenses is not anticipated” despite reallocating OLPRUVA promotion Maintained
OLPRUVA Commercial StrategyNear termContinued promotionSales & marketing scaled back; maintain availability/support while evaluating options Lowered focus
Capital NeedsNear termNot specifiedSufficient resources to execute priorities independent of capital markets Maintained
EU MAA (Arimoclomol)EMA processSubmission planned H2’25 MAA validated; 120-day clock underway; update expected in review timeline Progressed

No formal numeric revenue/EPS guidance ranges were provided in Q3 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Market Access – MIPLYFFA Covered Lives38% (Q1) ; 52% (Q2) 66%; high reimbursement via formulary or exceptions Improving
Enrollment Forms – MIPLYFFA13 (Q1) ; 7 (Q2) 8 new; 137 total since launch Stable to improving
EU MAA StatusOn track H2’25 filing (Q1) ; Submitted (Q2) Validated; 120-day clock; confident in largest dataset Advancing
OLPRUVA StrategySlow uptake; competitive shifts; coverage 79% (Q2) Promotion scaled back; maintain access/support Deprioritized
Medicare Part D Rebate RedesignNot highlighted$1.2M gross-to-net true-up; future estimates updated New policy headwind embedded
Patient Identification InitiativesDisease awareness; genetic testing (Q2) Adds AI/ML models to find undiagnosed patients Expanding tools
Celiprolol (VEDS) Enrollment32 (Q1) ; 39 (Q2) 44 enrolled; 1 confirmed event; interim after 28 events Progressing

Management Commentary

  • “Zevra is well‑positioned for continued growth, driven by the strong performance of MIPLYFFA…” .
  • “Q3 MIPLYFFA net revenue was impacted by the redesign of Medicare Part D rebates…gross‑to‑net true‑up…$1.2 million” .
  • “We increased the percent of covered lives to 66%…achieving high overall reimbursement rates…through direct formulary coverage or medical exception pathways” .
  • “Our Expanded Access Program…with 92 patients enrolled…lay[s] the groundwork for a potential commercial launch [in Europe]” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Newly diagnosed patient pull-through improving: disease awareness and genetic testing partnerships are identifying undiagnosed patients; majority of new forms still from previously diagnosed patients .
  • Reimbursement velocity: time from enrollment to paid dispense has compressed from months to weeks; some 24–72 hour turnarounds observed .
  • EU MAA timeline: first 120-day feedback; potential broader update closer to day 150; EAP conversion expected country-by-country with reimbursement .
  • Policy impact clarity: Medicare Part D redesign (catastrophic threshold and rebate increase to 20%) now embedded in gross‑to‑net assumptions .
  • Commercial focus: OLPRUVA promotion scaled back; resources prioritized to MIPLYFFA and patient services; selling expenses expected to be broadly stable .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue: actual $26.06M vs consensus $26.64M (miss ~$0.58M); Primary EPS: actual $(0.01) vs consensus $(0.0338) (beat ~$0.02); 8 estimates supported each consensus*.
  • Implications: modest top-line miss likely due to gross‑to‑net true-up; EPS beat driven by operating expense control and mix; consensus models should reflect updated Medicare Part D rebate rates and continued access gains*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • MIPLYFFA is scaling with improving coverage (38% → 52% → 66%) and strong reimbursement; expect continued momentum as diagnosis initiatives broaden .
  • The Medicare Part D policy change is a durable gross‑to‑net headwind but now embedded; near-term reported revenue may show noise from true-ups, with underlying demand intact .
  • EU optionality is meaningful: MAA validated with largest NPC dataset; EAP (92 patients) supports early conversion post-approval and country-by-country reimbursement .
  • OLPRUVA resources reallocated; de‑risked P&L as portfolio focus consolidates on MIPLYFFA and high-impact patient services .
  • Balance sheet provides strategic flexibility: $230.4M cash/investments and ~$61.3M debt, enabling self-funded execution and potential EU launch pathways (solo, distributor, hybrid) .
  • Pipeline progress: celiprolol DiSCOVER enrollment at 44 with interim planned after 28 events; potential medium-term read-through to broader rare disease strategy .
  • Trading lens: modest revenue miss offset by EPS beat; watch for EMA day-120/150 milestones, continued U.S. access expansion, and any updates on OLPRUVA options or KP1077 strategic alternatives .