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ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (ZVRA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 net revenue was $26.1M, up ~606% YoY from $3.7M, led by MIPLYFFA® net revenue of $22.4M; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01) versus $(0.69) a year ago .
- Versus consensus, revenue was slightly below ($26.06M actual vs $26.64M estimate; miss of ~$0.58M)* and EPS beat (−$0.01 actual vs −$0.034 estimate; beat of ~$$0.02); eight sell-side estimates supported the consensus.
- Covered lives for MIPLYFFA reached 66% (52% in Q2; 38% in Q1), with strong reimbursement pull-through and shorter time-to-paid dispense; Medicare Part D rebate redesign drove a $1.2M gross-to-net true-up, impacting Q3 reported net sales .
- Balance sheet strength remained notable: cash, cash equivalents, and investments were $230.4M, total debt ~$61.3M; management believes resources are sufficient to execute priorities independently of capital markets .
- Near-term catalysts: EMA MAA for arimoclomol validated; first 120-day clock feedback expected before day 150; OLPRUVA promotion scaled back to focus resources on MIPLYFFA and patient services .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Commercial execution: “third quarter net revenue reached $26.1 million, driven by $22.4 million in net revenue for MIPLYFFA” .
- Access expansion and execution: covered lives for MIPLYFFA increased to 66%, “in line with what we would expect one year into the launch,” with “high overall reimbursement rates…either through direct formulary coverage or…medical exception pathways” .
- EU pathway advancing: “application has been validated and is under review by the EMA…highly confident in our submission,” supported by the largest NPC dataset and active EAP (92 patients) to seed launch .
What Went Wrong
- Policy headwind: “Q3 MIPLYFFA net revenue was impacted by the redesign of Medicare Part D rebates…gross‑to‑net true‑up from prior quarters of $1.2 million,” a reduction to net sales that is now embedded in estimates going forward .
- OLPRUVA underperformance: company “decided to scale back sales and marketing efforts for OLPRUVA” amid a “mature and well‑served UCD market” and prior quarter impairment/write-downs tied to slower adoption .
- Non-cash volatility: warrant/CVR fair value expense of $5.5M and interest expense of $2.05M weighed on GAAP results despite operational improvement .
Financial Results
Quarterly P&L comparison (GAAP)
Notes: Q2 includes $148.3M PRV sale gain and OLPRUVA impairment/write‑down; Q3 includes $1.2M Medicare Part D gross‑to‑net true‑up and $5.5M warrant/CVR fair value expense .
YoY comparison (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
Q3 2025 Actual vs Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment/Source Breakdown (Q3 2025)
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
No formal numeric revenue/EPS guidance ranges were provided in Q3 materials .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Zevra is well‑positioned for continued growth, driven by the strong performance of MIPLYFFA…” .
- “Q3 MIPLYFFA net revenue was impacted by the redesign of Medicare Part D rebates…gross‑to‑net true‑up…$1.2 million” .
- “We increased the percent of covered lives to 66%…achieving high overall reimbursement rates…through direct formulary coverage or medical exception pathways” .
- “Our Expanded Access Program…with 92 patients enrolled…lay[s] the groundwork for a potential commercial launch [in Europe]” .
Q&A Highlights
- Newly diagnosed patient pull-through improving: disease awareness and genetic testing partnerships are identifying undiagnosed patients; majority of new forms still from previously diagnosed patients .
- Reimbursement velocity: time from enrollment to paid dispense has compressed from months to weeks; some 24–72 hour turnarounds observed .
- EU MAA timeline: first 120-day feedback; potential broader update closer to day 150; EAP conversion expected country-by-country with reimbursement .
- Policy impact clarity: Medicare Part D redesign (catastrophic threshold and rebate increase to 20%) now embedded in gross‑to‑net assumptions .
- Commercial focus: OLPRUVA promotion scaled back; resources prioritized to MIPLYFFA and patient services; selling expenses expected to be broadly stable .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 revenue: actual $26.06M vs consensus $26.64M (miss ~$0.58M); Primary EPS: actual $(0.01) vs consensus $(0.0338) (beat ~$0.02); 8 estimates supported each consensus*.
- Implications: modest top-line miss likely due to gross‑to‑net true-up; EPS beat driven by operating expense control and mix; consensus models should reflect updated Medicare Part D rebate rates and continued access gains*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- MIPLYFFA is scaling with improving coverage (38% → 52% → 66%) and strong reimbursement; expect continued momentum as diagnosis initiatives broaden .
- The Medicare Part D policy change is a durable gross‑to‑net headwind but now embedded; near-term reported revenue may show noise from true-ups, with underlying demand intact .
- EU optionality is meaningful: MAA validated with largest NPC dataset; EAP (92 patients) supports early conversion post-approval and country-by-country reimbursement .
- OLPRUVA resources reallocated; de‑risked P&L as portfolio focus consolidates on MIPLYFFA and high-impact patient services .
- Balance sheet provides strategic flexibility: $230.4M cash/investments and ~$61.3M debt, enabling self-funded execution and potential EU launch pathways (solo, distributor, hybrid) .
- Pipeline progress: celiprolol DiSCOVER enrollment at 44 with interim planned after 28 events; potential medium-term read-through to broader rare disease strategy .
- Trading lens: modest revenue miss offset by EPS beat; watch for EMA day-120/150 milestones, continued U.S. access expansion, and any updates on OLPRUVA options or KP1077 strategic alternatives .