Century Aluminum Eyes $300M Quarterly EBITDA at Spot as Tariffs Power Domestic Resurgence

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

CENXWULF

Century Aluminum is approaching a $300 million quarterly EBITDA run rate at current spot prices—a figure that doesn't yet include the Mont Holly expansion set to complete this summer, CFO Peter Trpkovski told investors at the BMO 2026 Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference on Tuesday. 1

The largest U.S. primary aluminum producer painted a picture of a company firing on all cylinders: strengthened Section 232 tariffs with "no exceptions and no exemptions," all operating assets returning to full capacity for the first time in a decade, and a $4 billion Oklahoma smelter partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) targeting final investment decision by Q4 2026. 2

The $300 Million Math

At Tuesday's conference, Trpkovski walked investors through the EBITDA bridge from guided to spot: 3

The guidance assumes lagged pricing—Century realizes revenue 1-2 quarters behind spot—meaning current aluminum prices ($3,100/ton LME, $1.04/lb Midwest premium) haven't fully flowed through yet. 4 Winter Storm Fern created a roughly $20 million EBITDA headwind in Q1 from a two-week power price spike at the Sebree, Kentucky smelter, but management said temperatures have normalized and prices have returned to historical levels. 5

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Mont Holly: The Last Piece of the Puzzle

The $45 million Mont Holly expansion—restarting the final 25% of idled capacity—begins in April and completes by end of June. 1 The project adds 50,000 tons of annual production, bringing the South Carolina facility to approximately 220,000 tons.

"Those incremental tons are the most profitable," Trpkovski said, noting payback was originally expected before year-end at lagged prices—and will now come "even sooner, even earlier" given the current price environment. 2

Combined with bringing Line 2 back online in Iceland after transformer failures, Century will reach approximately 770,000 tons of annualized production by mid-summer—the first time all operating assets will run at 100% capacity in nearly 10 years. 3

Tariffs: "Here to Stay"

Century's bullish outlook rests heavily on Section 232 tariffs, which the company views as permanent policy regardless of administration. 4

"Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs are here to stay," Trpkovski stated. "They've been around since the first Trump administration, so 8 years now, and they've only strengthened since Trump 2.0 has come back into office. They also survived the Biden administration, so they've survived both sides." 5

The CFO dismissed concerns about a recent Supreme Court ruling affecting other tariffs, noting it "has nothing to do with Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs" and that the program has already "lived its day in court." 6

The key change: all exemptions have been removed. Combined with the increase from 25% to 50% tariffs, this has pushed the Midwest premium to record levels—currently $1.04/lb versus historical norms closer to $0.15-0.20/lb. 7

"Tariffs are certainly working and have not hurt demand whatsoever," Trpkovski said, pointing to China's 45 million ton production cap limiting global supply growth. 8

Hawesville: From Idle Smelter to AI Data Center

Century completed the sale of its Hawesville, Kentucky facility—idle since 2022 due to high power prices—to Terawulf on February 2, 2026.

Deal Terms:

• Cash proceeds: $200 million
• Equity stake: 6.8% non-dilutive interest in completed data center
• Put option: Floor value exercisable one year after energization (expected ~2028)

The CFO emphasized the retained stake's value: based on current data center lease pricing, TeraWulf operating margins, and sector valuation multiples, Century believes the 6.8% interest is worth "well in excess" of the $200 million upfront payment. 10

The Hawesville site offers approximately 480MW of existing power capacity with potential for expansion—making it attractive for AI/HPC workloads.

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Inola: The Crown Jewel

The most significant strategic development is Century's partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium to build the first new U.S. aluminum smelter in nearly 50 years.

"EGA is one of the premier technology providers in the world," Trpkovski explained. "We wanted to de-risk the project and make sure that this project does get built." 2

Three major milestones remain before final investment decision expected in Q4 2026: 3

1. Power contract finalization with Public Service Company of Oklahoma
2. Engineering completion (Bechtel engaged)
3. Project financing (exploring DOE and other government programs for attractive borrowing rates)

Once complete, Inola alone would more than double current U.S. aluminum production. Combined with Century's existing assets, the company would produce approximately 1.5 million tons annually—transforming the U.S. import dependency landscape where 85% of aluminum needs are currently met by imports.

Stock Performance

CENX shares have surged roughly 300% from their August 2025 lows near $13 to current levels around $52, driven by tariff strengthening, the EGA partnership announcement, and improved aluminum fundamentals.

The stock touched an all-time high of $55.61 last week following Q4 earnings, though it pulled back slightly on profit-taking. At current levels, Century trades at a market cap of approximately $4.8 billion.

Financial Snapshot

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The Q4 results don't include the $200 million Hawesville proceeds (February close) or $175 million in Section 45X receivables and insurance proceeds expected in Q1. 13

Capital Allocation: What's Next

Management indicated capital allocation priorities will be detailed on the Q1 call, but outlined key 2026 spending: 14

• Mont Holly expansion: $45 million
• Jamalco power generator: New turbine starting April (lowers cost structure)
• Iceland transformer replacements: Offset by insurance proceeds
• Total 2026 CapEx: $115-125 million

The company expects to exceed its net debt targets in Q1 given the combination of Hawesville proceeds, insurance recoveries, and 45X credits. 15

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What to Watch

Near-term catalysts:

• Mont Holly restart begins (April 2026)
• Mont Holly restart completes / Iceland Line 2 online (June 2026)
• Full 770,000 ton run rate achieved (mid-summer 2026)
• Q1 2026 earnings with capital allocation update

Medium-term catalysts:

• Inola power contract finalization
• Inola FID / groundbreaking (Q4 2026)
• TeraWulf data center energization (~2027-2028)

Key risks:

• Tariff policy reversal (management views as unlikely)
• Aluminum price volatility
• Power cost spikes
• Inola financing / construction execution

Century is positioned as a pure-play beneficiary of the domestic manufacturing renaissance and critical minerals focus. The question for investors is whether current valuations already price in the Inola optionality—or whether there's still runway as the $300 million quarterly EBITDA run rate becomes the new baseline.

Related

• Century Aluminum Company Profile
• Terawulf Company Profile