Century Aluminum Outlines Path to Double US Production at BMO Conference

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Century Aluminum laid out an aggressive expansion roadmap at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference today, detailing how the company plans to capitalize on 50% aluminum tariffs and a global supply deficit to more than double US primary aluminum production over the next four years. 1

The stock is up 185% over the past year and 27% year-to-date, trading near its 52-week high of $55.61 as investors bet on the company's transformation from a struggling commodity producer into the centerpiece of America's critical minerals reshoring strategy.

The Oklahoma Megaproject: First US Smelter in 50 Years

The headline announcement remains the $4 billion Oklahoma smelter joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), announced January 26.

The numbers are staggering:

The Inola, Oklahoma plant would be the largest primary aluminum production facility ever built in the United States, more than doubling current domestic output. The US currently produces less than 850,000 metric tons annually across just five operating smelters—down from 23 facilities producing over 4 million tons at the industry's peak.

Century CEO Jesse Gary framed the project as a national security imperative at the conference: "Key industries, such as automotive, aerospace, construction, packaging and importantly, national defense, stand to benefit greatly from this expanded production of this critical metal."

Bechtel has been selected to lead preparatory engineering work, adding credibility to the timeline. The engineering giant has built one-third of all new aluminum smelter capacity outside China over the past 25 years.

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Hawesville Sale: $200M Cash + Data Center Upside

Century also highlighted its strategic monetization of the idled Hawesville, Kentucky facility, which closed in February 2026 after sitting dormant since 2022 due to uncompetitive power costs. 1

The transaction with TeraWulf (NASDAQ: Wulf) delivered:

• $200 million cash upfront
• 6.8% non-dilutive equity stake in Raylan Data Holdings, the development entity 3
• Put option to sell the equity stake one year after data center operations commence 4
• Expected data center energization in 2H 2027 5

The deal illustrates how legacy industrial infrastructure is being repurposed in the AI era. TeraWulf plans to build a digital infrastructure campus supporting high-performance computing and artificial intelligence workloads, leveraging the site's 482 MW of immediately available power. 6

"The speed-to-power possibilities of the site have driven lots of immediate demand from hyperscalers and should drive desirable lease rates," Gary noted on the Q4 earnings call. 7

The transaction closed February 2, boosting Century's liquidity position to approximately $418 million.

Near-Term Catalysts: Mt. Holly and Grundartangi Restarts

While the Oklahoma project dominates the long-term narrative, Century's near-term earnings trajectory hinges on two operational restarts:

Mt. Holly Restart (South Carolina)

The Mt. Holly smelter restart will increase total US primary aluminum production by approximately 10%, adding 50,000 metric tons of annual capacity. 9 The restart is expected to be complete by the end of June 2026. 10

Century secured a power agreement extension with Santee Cooper through 2031, which was critical to making the economics work even with tariff support.

Grundartangi Recovery (Iceland)

The Grundartangi smelter was forced to temporarily halt production in Potline 2 in October 2025 following the failure of three electrical transformers. 12 The original timeline called for a Q4 2026 restart pending replacement transformer delivery.

The good news from the BMO presentation: Century now expects to restart Line 2 by the end of April—six months ahead of schedule—using repaired transformers while awaiting new replacements. 13 Full production at Grundartangi is expected by end of July 2026. 14

Insurers have confirmed coverage for the equipment failure and subsequent business interruption, with Century already receiving initial payments. 15

Q1 2026 Outlook: EBITDA Bridge Shows Significant Upside

The BMO presentation included a detailed EBITDA bridge showing the path from Q4 2025's $171 million adjusted EBITDA to Q1 2026 guidance of $215-$235 million at expected realized prices. 16

At spot prices ($3,100/tonne LME), Century estimates quarterly EBITDA potential of $295-$315 million—representing 40% upside to the midpoint of guidance. 23

Tariff Tailwind: 50% Duties Supporting Domestic Investment

The Section 232 aluminum tariffs, doubled to 50% in June 2025, are the policy backbone enabling Century's expansion.

Century has been vocal in its support for the Trump administration's trade policies. Following the Supreme Court's February 20 IEEPA ruling, the company issued a statement emphasizing that Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were not impacted by the decision and "remain in full force and effect."

The tariffs have pushed the Midwest aluminum premium to record highs, creating a favorable environment for domestic manufacturing. The US currently imports approximately 85% of its aluminum needs—a dependency the administration has targeted as a national security vulnerability.

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Financials: Positioned for Significant Earnings Growth

Century's recent financial performance shows the operational leverage to commodity prices:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

Analyst estimates point to continued improvement:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

BMO Capital raised its price target to $61 from $52 following the Q4 results, citing the Mt. Holly restart and Grundartangi recovery as near-term catalysts. B. Riley subsequently raised its target to $68 from $64.

What to Watch

Near-term (Q1-Q2 2026):

• Mt. Holly restart completion (June 2026) 10
• Grundartangi Potline 2 restart (April 2026) and full recovery (July 2026) 11
• Insurance proceeds from Grundartangi equipment failure 12
• Continued aluminum price strength vs. guidance assumptions

Long-term (2026-2030):

• Oklahoma smelter Final Investment Decision (Q4 2026) 13
• Power contract negotiations with Public Service Company of Oklahoma
• TeraWulf data center energization and put option exercise (2H 2028+) 15
• Section 232 tariff policy continuity

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Related: Century Aluminum (cenx) · Alcoa (aa) · Terawulf (wulf)